Rodez 0-1 Amiens – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Amiens at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rodez vs Amiens fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Rodez and Amiens meet at Stade Paul Lignon in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 10. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 1 October 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Rodez (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W L D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Rodez, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rodez's form when playing at home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 games at Stade Paul Lignon this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Amiens's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: D D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Amiens, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Amiens have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Rodez, 0 for Amiens and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Feb 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Rodez goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Amiens goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rodez 37% versus Amiens 46%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Rodez 28% | Amiens 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rodez 1.25 xG and Amiens 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rodez attack 0.902 / defence 1.417 | Amiens attack 0.875 / defence 1.090. League average goals — home 1.268 / away 1.169. Data: 46 Rodez games / 47 Amiens games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rodez 32% | Draw 26% | Amiens 42%. Fair-value odds: Rodez 3.12 | Draw 3.85 | Amiens 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Amiens as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Amiens if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.70 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Rodez 60% | Amiens 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rodez vs Amiens | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stade Paul Lignon • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Oct 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rodez 32% | Draw 26% | Amiens 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Rodez 1.25 / Amiens 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Rodez attack 0.902 / def 1.417 | Amiens attack 0.875 / def 1.090 | league avg home 1.268 / away 1.169 • Poisson stance: Amiens (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Rodez xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Amiens xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rodez vs Amiens kick off?
Rodez vs Amiens kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 1 October 2022 at Stade Paul Lignon.
What was the final score in Rodez vs Amiens?
Rodez 0 - 1 Amiens.
Where is Rodez vs Amiens being played?
The match is being played at Stade Paul Lignon.
What competition is Rodez vs Amiens part of?
Rodez vs Amiens is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Rodez vs Amiens?
Our statistical model gives Rodez a 32% chance of winning, Amiens a 42% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Amiens the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rodez vs Amiens?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Rodez and Amiens will score (BTTS).
Will Rodez vs Amiens have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Amiens?
Record (2 meetings): Rodez 1W | Draws 1 | Amiens 0W.
What form are Rodez and Amiens in?
Rodez (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-D-W. Amiens (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Rodez's attack at 0.90x the league average against Amiens's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.25 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Amiens's attack (0.88x) against Rodez's defence (1.42x) — and the away total comes out at 1.45.
These ratings are built from 46/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Amiens Win
32%
3.08
26%
3.89
42%
2.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Rodez xG
Total xG
2.70
1.45
Amiens xG
3.08
32%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
2.39
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
23%
4.26
29%
3.48
Win to Nil
8%
13.13
12%
8.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 9.8 | 7.1 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.2 | 8.8 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.6 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rodez vs Amiens?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Rodez and Amiens expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Rodez and 1.45 for Amiens, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Rodez vs Amiens?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Rodez come into this having played 46 games, going 12W 16D 18L for 1.13 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-D-W. The sample for Rodez is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Amiens sit at 1.33 PPG from 46 outings (14W 19D 13L), a run that reads D-D-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Amiens is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.13 PPG for Rodez against 1.33 for Amiens. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Rodez's home form reads 5W 11D 7L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.13 PPG return.
Away from home, Amiens have taken 0.91 points per game from 23 outings (3W 12D 8L). That's a step down from their 1.33 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Amiens's season.
Attack vs Defence
Rodez are averaging 0.87 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Amiens are on 1.17 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Defensively: Amiens in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rodez
Blended
Amiens
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rodez and Amiens in coming into this match?
Rodez have gone 12W 16D 18L in their last 46 games (1.13 PPG), while Amiens have gone 14W 19D 13L in their last 46 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rodez at home or Amiens away?
Rodez's home record (1.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rodez at home: 1.13 PPG; Amiens away: 0.91 PPG.
Have Rodez or Amiens been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rodez have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Amiens in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 17 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rodez have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Amiens — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Rodez
4
Draws
3
Amiens
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Amiens?
From 10 meetings on record, Rodez have won 3, Amiens have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Rodez and Amiens last play each other?
They last met on 17 April 2026, when Rodez 3-2 Amiens.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Rodez are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Amiens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rodez 44%, Amiens 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 26% for Rodez and 30% for Amiens.
On the defensive side: Rodez keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Rodez have failed to score in 35% of games; Amiens in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rodez home games / Amiens away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rodez play Amiens?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Rodez's recent matches and 56% of Amiens's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rodez vs Amiens usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 26% of Rodez's recent games and 30% of Amiens's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rodez and Amiens tend to score early?
Rodez have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Amiens in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Amiens edge out Rodez 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Amiens beat Rodez 0-1 at Stade Paul Lignon, Regular Season - 10, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rodez 1.25 xG and Amiens 1.45 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Rodez fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rodez attack 0.90 / defence 1.42 against Amiens attack 0.88 / defence 1.09, drawn from 46/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rodez 32% | Draw 26% | Amiens 42%, with Amiens to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rodez 28%, Amiens 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rodez's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Amiens's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rodez 1.13 PPG, Amiens 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Amiens win broke the near-deadlock. Rodez (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.87 scoring average — below par going forward. Amiens (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.