Reims 1-1 Nancy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Reims at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Reims vs Nancy fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 32 as Reims welcome Nancy to Stade Auguste-Delaune. Kick-off is set for Saturday 25 April 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Reims have gone 2W 7D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L W D D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Reims's home record at Stade Auguste-Delaune: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Auguste-Delaune. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Reims are significantly better at Stade Auguste-Delaune than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Nancy stand at 1W 5D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Nancy's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Reims carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.30 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Reims have won 1, Nancy 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 26 Sep 2025, ended 1–0 with Reims winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Reims trading profile (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 36% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
Nancy trading profile (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reims 48% versus Nancy 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Reims 45% | Nancy 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reims 1.33 xG and Nancy 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reims attack 0.971 / defence 0.943 | Nancy attack 0.816 / defence 1.117. League average goals — home 1.226 / away 1.172. Data: 31 Reims games / 31 Nancy games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Reims 45% | Draw 32% | Nancy 23%. Fair-value odds: Reims 2.22 | Draw 3.12 | Nancy 4.35. Reims hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Reims at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Reims offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.23 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates are neutral: Reims 40% | Nancy 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reims vs Nancy | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Stade Auguste-Delaune • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Apr 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reims 45% | Draw 32% | Nancy 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 46% | xG Reims 1.33 / Nancy 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Reims attack 0.971 / def 0.943 | Nancy attack 0.816 / def 1.117 | league avg home 1.226 / away 1.172 • Poisson stance: Reims (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Reims xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Nancy xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Reims vs Nancy kick off?
Reims vs Nancy kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 25 April 2026 at Stade Auguste-Delaune.
What was the final score in Reims vs Nancy?
Reims 1 - 1 Nancy.
Where is Reims vs Nancy being played?
The match is being played at Stade Auguste-Delaune.
What competition is Reims vs Nancy part of?
Reims vs Nancy is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Reims vs Nancy?
Our statistical model gives Reims a 45% chance of winning, Nancy a 23% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Reims the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reims vs Nancy?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Reims and Nancy will score (BTTS).
Will Reims vs Nancy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Nancy?
Record (1 meetings): Reims 1W | Draws 0 | Nancy 0W.
What form are Reims and Nancy in?
Reims (all comps): 2W-7D-1L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-W-D-D-W. Nancy (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Reims's attack rating (0.97) and Nancy's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.33 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Nancy's attack versus Reims's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.6%), 0-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Reims Win
45%
2.25
32%
3.11
23%
4.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Reims xG
Total xG
2.23
0.90
Nancy xG
2.25
45%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
4.29
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
41%
2.46
26%
3.78
Win to Nil
18%
5.54
6%
16.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 9.7 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.3 | 12.9 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Reims vs Nancy?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Reims and Nancy expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Reims and 0.90 for Nancy, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Reims vs Nancy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 31 outings, Reims have picked up 1.65 PPG on a 13W 12D 6L record — L-W-D-D-W across the most recent five.
Nancy's form line: 7W 9D 15L from 31 games, 0.97 PPG, last five L-D-D-D-L.
Put side by side, Reims are the form team by 0.68 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Nancy.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Reims have posted 1.87 PPG from 15 outings (8W 4D 3L).
On the road, Nancy have gone 3W 6D 6L from 15 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Reims come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Reims are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Nancy are on 0.90 scored and 1.55 conceded.
Defensively: Reims have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 31 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reims
Current Season
Nancy
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Reims and Nancy in coming into this match?
Reims have gone 13W 12D 6L in their last 31 games (1.65 PPG), while Nancy have gone 7W 9D 15L in their last 31 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reims at home or Nancy away?
Reims's home record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reims at home: 1.87 PPG; Nancy away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Reims or Nancy been keeping clean sheets recently?
Reims have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their recent games, Nancy in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Reims and Nancy runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Reims
1
Draws
0
Nancy
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Nancy?
From 2 meetings on record, Reims have won 1, Nancy have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Reims and Nancy last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Reims 1-1 Nancy.
Who has won more matches between Reims and Nancy?
Reims have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Reims are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Nancy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reims 40%, Nancy 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Reims) and 60% (Nancy).
On the defensive side: Reims keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Reims have failed to score in 27% of games; Nancy in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reims home games / Nancy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Reims play Nancy?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Reims's recent matches and 60% of Nancy's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Reims vs Nancy usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Reims's recent games and 60% of Nancy's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Reims and Nancy tend to score early?
Reims have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Nancy in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Reims and Nancy share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Auguste-Delaune, Regular Season - 32, as Reims and Nancy drew 1-1 in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reims 1.33 xG and Nancy 0.90 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reims attack 0.97 / defence 0.94 against Nancy attack 0.82 / defence 1.12, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reims 45% | Draw 32% | Nancy 23%, with Reims to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reims 45%, Nancy 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reims's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.
Nancy's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Reims arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 0.97. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.