Reims 4-1 Clermont Foot – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 34% as Reims take on Clermont Foot.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Auguste-Delaune plays host to Reims versus Clermont Foot in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off: Tuesday 23 September 2025 at 19:30 UTC.
Form
Reims (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Reims have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Reims at Stade Auguste-Delaune this season: 4W 0D 6L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Clermont Foot's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: D W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Clermont Foot have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Clermont Foot's away record: 2W 5D 3L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Clermont Foot are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 6 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Reims, 3 for Clermont Foot and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Apr 2024, ended 1–4 with Clermont Foot winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Reims — key trading statistics (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Clermont Foot — key trading statistics (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reims 50% versus Clermont Foot 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Reims 43% | Clermont Foot 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reims 0.86 xG and Clermont Foot 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reims attack 0.784 / defence 0.832 | Clermont Foot attack 0.894 / defence 0.877. League average goals — home 1.255 / away 1.164. Reims's attack strength of 0.784 is below the league average — the 0.86 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 6 Reims games / 40 Clermont Foot games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Reims 33% | Draw 34% | Clermont Foot 33%. Fair-value odds: Reims 3.03 | Draw 2.94 | Clermont Foot 3.03. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 1.73. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.73 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Reims's lower xG of 0.86 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.73 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 25% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 33% on No. Form rates corroborate: Reims 30% | Clermont Foot 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reims vs Clermont Foot | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stade Auguste-Delaune • Kick-off: Tuesday 23 Sep 2025, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reims 33% | Draw 34% | Clermont Foot 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% | BTTS 33% | xG Reims 0.86 / Clermont Foot 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Reims attack 0.784 / def 0.832 | Clermont Foot attack 0.894 / def 0.877 | league avg home 1.255 / away 1.164 • Poisson stance: Draw (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.86
Reims xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Clermont Foot xG
33%
BTTS
52%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Reims vs Clermont Foot kick off?
Reims vs Clermont Foot kicked off at 19:30 on Tuesday 23 September 2025 at Stade Auguste-Delaune.
What was the final score in Reims vs Clermont Foot?
Reims 4 - 1 Clermont Foot.
Where is Reims vs Clermont Foot being played?
The match is being played at Stade Auguste-Delaune.
What competition is Reims vs Clermont Foot part of?
Reims vs Clermont Foot is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Reims vs Clermont Foot?
Our statistical model gives Reims a 33% chance of winning, Clermont Foot a 33% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Reims vs Clermont Foot?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Reims and Clermont Foot will score (BTTS).
Will Reims vs Clermont Foot have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%.
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Clermont Foot?
Record (6 meetings): Reims 2W | Draws 1 | Clermont Foot 3W.
What form are Reims and Clermont Foot in?
Reims (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-W-D-L. Clermont Foot (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Reims's attack rating (0.78) and Clermont Foot's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 0.86 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Clermont Foot's attack (0.89x) against Reims's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 0.87.
These ratings are built from 6/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 19.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 0-1 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
3.03
34%
2.97
33%
3.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.4%
Away win
1 – 0
15.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.86
Reims xG
Total xG
1.73
0.87
Clermont Foot xG
3.03
33%
Home win
2.97
34%
Draw
3.01
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
25%
Over 2.5
4.00
75%
Under 2.5
1.33
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
2.99
67%
BTTS No
1.50
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
42%
2.37
Win to Nil
14%
7.19
14%
7.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.8 | 15.4 | 6.7 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.3 | 13.3 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Reims vs Clermont Foot?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.5%.
How many goals are Reims and Clermont Foot expected to score?
The model projects 0.86 expected goals for Reims and 0.87 for Clermont Foot, a combined total of 1.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Reims vs Clermont Foot?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Reims's recent record stands at 10W 12D 20L from 42 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with W-L-W-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Reims, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Clermont Foot, meanwhile, have gone 10W 15D 17L across 42 games — 1.07 PPG, with D-W-D-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Clermont Foot, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Reims against 1.07 for Clermont Foot. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Reims have managed 6W 4D 10L from 20 games — 1.10 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Clermont Foot's away record stands at 5W 6D 9L across 20 trips, a 1.05 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Reims are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Clermont Foot are on 0.95 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reims
Early Season
Clermont Foot
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Reims and Clermont Foot in coming into this match?
Reims have gone 10W 12D 20L in their last 42 games (1.00 PPG), while Clermont Foot have gone 10W 15D 17L in their last 42 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reims at home or Clermont Foot away?
Reims's home record (1.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reims at home: 1.10 PPG; Clermont Foot away: 1.05 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 1, Ligue 2 all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Clermont Foot won 4-1 on 28 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Reims have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Clermont Foot — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Reims
2
Draws
3
Clermont Foot
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Clermont Foot?
From 9 meetings on record, Reims have won 4, Clermont Foot have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Reims and Clermont Foot last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when Clermont Foot 0-0 Reims.
Who has won more matches between Reims and Clermont Foot?
Reims have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Reims are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Clermont Foot are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reims 50%, Clermont Foot 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Reims) and 45% (Clermont Foot).
On the defensive side: Reims have failed to score in 35% of games; Clermont Foot in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reims home games / Clermont Foot away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Reims play Clermont Foot?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Reims's recent matches and 45% of Clermont Foot's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Reims vs Clermont Foot usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Reims's recent games and 45% of Clermont Foot's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Reims and Clermont Foot tend to score early?
Reims have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Clermont Foot in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Reims run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Clermont Foot.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Reims beat Clermont Foot 4-1 at Stade Auguste-Delaune, Regular Season - 7, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reims 0.86 xG and Clermont Foot 0.87 xG, a combined 1.73. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Reims beat their projection by 3.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reims attack 0.78 / defence 0.83 against Clermont Foot attack 0.89 / defence 0.88, drawn from 6/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reims 33% | Draw 34% | Clermont Foot 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 34%. The actual Reims win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 52% and landed. Over 3.5 was 10% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reims 43%, Clermont Foot 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reims's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Clermont Foot's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Reims 1.00 PPG, Clermont Foot 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Reims win broke the near-deadlock. Reims (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Clermont Foot (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.