RED Star FC 93 vs Guingamp – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Guingamp at 34%, yet in-form RED Star FC 93 provide a compelling counter-argument — this RED Star FC 93 vs Guingamp fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
RED Star FC 93 and Guingamp meet at Stade Bauer in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 23. This fixture gets under way on Friday 26 February 2027 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
RED Star FC 93 have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W W W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for RED Star FC 93, so this record blends games from this season and last.
RED Star FC 93's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Stade Bauer this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Guingamp's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: D W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Guingamp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Guingamp away from home this season: 0W 3D 7L from 10 away games — 0.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. RED Star FC 93's 1.70 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Guingamp's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Historically, RED Star FC 93 have had the better of this match-up — 5 wins from 5 meetings, with Guingamp managing just 0 victories and 0 draws shared.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.8 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Sep 2026, ended 3–1 with RED Star FC 93 winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both RED Star FC 93 and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 4.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
RED Star FC 93 — key trading statistics (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Guingamp — key trading statistics (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — RED Star FC 93 51% versus Guingamp 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (RED Star FC 93 51% | Guingamp 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RED Star FC 93 1.05 xG and Guingamp 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RED Star FC 93 attack 0.767 / defence 0.988 | Guingamp attack 0.797 / defence 1.016. League average goals — home 1.350 / away 1.337. RED Star FC 93's attack strength of 0.767 is below the league average — the 1.05 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 42 RED Star FC 93 games / 43 Guingamp games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: RED Star FC 93 34% | Draw 31% | Guingamp 34%. Fair-value odds: RED Star FC 93 2.94 | Draw 3.23 | Guingamp 2.94. The draw (31%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 31% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.10 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 4.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates are neutral: RED Star FC 93 50% | Guingamp 60%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RED Star FC 93 vs Guingamp | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stade Bauer • Kick-off: Friday 26 Feb 2027, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RED Star FC 93 34% | Draw 31% | Guingamp 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 43% | xG RED Star FC 93 1.05 / Guingamp 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: RED Star FC 93 attack 0.767 / def 0.988 | Guingamp attack 0.797 / def 1.016 | league avg home 1.350 / away 1.337 • Poisson stance: Draw (31%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
RED Star FC 93 xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Guingamp xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does RED Star FC 93 vs Guingamp kick off?
RED Star FC 93 vs Guingamp is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 26 February 2027 at Stade Bauer.
Where is RED Star FC 93 vs Guingamp being played?
The match is being played at Stade Bauer.
What competition is RED Star FC 93 vs Guingamp part of?
RED Star FC 93 vs Guingamp is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win RED Star FC 93 vs Guingamp?
Our statistical model gives RED Star FC 93 a 34% chance of winning, Guingamp a 34% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in RED Star FC 93 vs Guingamp?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both RED Star FC 93 and Guingamp will score (BTTS).
Will RED Star FC 93 vs Guingamp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between RED Star FC 93 and Guingamp?
Record (5 meetings): RED Star FC 93 5W | Draws 0 | Guingamp 0W.
What form are RED Star FC 93 and Guingamp in?
RED Star FC 93 (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Guingamp (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from RED Star FC 93's attack rating (0.77) and Guingamp's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.05 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Guingamp's attack (0.80x) against RED Star FC 93's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 42/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.9%), 0-1 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Guingamp Win
34%
2.92
31%
3.18
34%
2.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.8%
Away win
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
RED Star FC 93 xG
Total xG
2.10
1.05
Guingamp xG
2.92
34%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
2.91
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
35%
2.86
Win to Nil
12%
8.36
12%
8.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 12.8 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 13.5 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 7.1 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for RED Star FC 93 vs Guingamp?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are RED Star FC 93 and Guingamp expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for RED Star FC 93 and 1.05 for Guingamp, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for RED Star FC 93 vs Guingamp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 43 outings, RED Star FC 93 have picked up 1.67 PPG on a 20W 12D 11L record — W-W-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for RED Star FC 93 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Guingamp's form line: 12W 12D 19L from 43 games, 1.12 PPG, last five D-W-L-L-L. The sample for Guingamp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, RED Star FC 93 are the form team by 0.55 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Guingamp.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, RED Star FC 93 have posted 1.52 PPG from 21 outings (8W 8D 5L).
On the road, Guingamp have gone 4W 6D 11L from 21 away games — 0.86 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, RED Star FC 93 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
RED Star FC 93 are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Guingamp are on 1.23 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Defensively: RED Star FC 93 have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RED Star FC 93
Blended
Guingamp
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are RED Star FC 93 and Guingamp in coming into this match?
RED Star FC 93 have gone 20W 12D 11L in their last 43 games (1.67 PPG), while Guingamp have gone 12W 12D 19L in their last 43 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RED Star FC 93 at home or Guingamp away?
RED Star FC 93's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RED Star FC 93 at home: 1.52 PPG; Guingamp away: 0.86 PPG.
Have RED Star FC 93 or Guingamp been keeping clean sheets recently?
RED Star FC 93 have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Guingamp in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since August 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. The two were last together as recently as 19 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
RED Star FC 93 have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: RED Star FC 93 won 0-4 on 23 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, RED Star FC 93 have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Guingamp — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
5
RED Star FC 93
0
Draws
0
Guingamp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between RED Star FC 93 and Guingamp?
From 5 meetings on record, RED Star FC 93 have won 5, Guingamp have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did RED Star FC 93 and Guingamp last play each other?
They last met on 19 September 2026, when Guingamp 1-3 RED Star FC 93.
Who has won more matches between RED Star FC 93 and Guingamp?
RED Star FC 93 have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
RED Star FC 93 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — RED Star FC 93 52%, Guingamp 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (RED Star FC 93) and 62% (Guingamp).
On the defensive side: RED Star FC 93 keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; RED Star FC 93 have failed to score in 29% of games; Guingamp in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RED Star FC 93 home games / Guingamp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when RED Star FC 93 play Guingamp?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of RED Star FC 93's games and 62% of Guingamp's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is RED Star FC 93 vs Guingamp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of RED Star FC 93's recent games and 62% of Guingamp's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do RED Star FC 93 and Guingamp tend to score early?
RED Star FC 93 have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Guingamp in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.