RED Star FC 93 vs Guingamp – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours RED Star FC 93 (37%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as RED Star FC 93 face Guingamp.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
RED Star FC 93 and Guingamp meet at Stade Bauer in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 23. This fixture gets under way on Friday 26 February 2027 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
RED Star FC 93 have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L W D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. RED Star FC 93 have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
RED Star FC 93's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Stade Bauer this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Guingamp's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Guingamp have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Guingamp away from home this season: 0W 3D 7L from 10 away games — 0.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. RED Star FC 93's 1.50 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Guingamp's 0.50 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — RED Star FC 93 have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Guingamp in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Historically, RED Star FC 93 have had the better of this match-up — 4 wins from 4 meetings, with Guingamp managing just 0 victories and 0 draws shared.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.0 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Apr 2026, ended 3–2 with RED Star FC 93 winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both RED Star FC 93 and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 5.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
RED Star FC 93 — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Guingamp — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — RED Star FC 93 50% versus Guingamp 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (RED Star FC 93 50% | Guingamp 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RED Star FC 93 1.33 xG and Guingamp 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RED Star FC 93 attack 0.943 / defence 1.220 | Guingamp attack 0.805 / defence 1.161. League average goals — home 1.211 / away 1.253. Data: 37 RED Star FC 93 games / 38 Guingamp games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: RED Star FC 93 37% | Draw 30% | Guingamp 33%. Fair-value odds: RED Star FC 93 2.70 | Draw 3.33 | Guingamp 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is RED Star FC 93 at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on RED Star FC 93 if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.56 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 5.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: RED Star FC 93 60% | Guingamp 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RED Star FC 93 vs Guingamp | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stade Bauer • Kick-off: Friday 26 Feb 2027, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RED Star FC 93 37% | Draw 30% | Guingamp 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 54% | xG RED Star FC 93 1.33 / Guingamp 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: RED Star FC 93 attack 0.943 / def 1.220 | Guingamp attack 0.805 / def 1.161 | league avg home 1.211 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: RED Star FC 93 (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
RED Star FC 93 xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Guingamp xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does RED Star FC 93 vs Guingamp kick off?
RED Star FC 93 vs Guingamp is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 26 February 2027 at Stade Bauer.
Where is RED Star FC 93 vs Guingamp being played?
The match is being played at Stade Bauer.
What competition is RED Star FC 93 vs Guingamp part of?
RED Star FC 93 vs Guingamp is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win RED Star FC 93 vs Guingamp?
Our statistical model gives RED Star FC 93 a 37% chance of winning, Guingamp a 33% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making RED Star FC 93 the favourite.
Will both teams score in RED Star FC 93 vs Guingamp?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both RED Star FC 93 and Guingamp will score (BTTS).
Will RED Star FC 93 vs Guingamp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between RED Star FC 93 and Guingamp?
Record (4 meetings): RED Star FC 93 4W | Draws 0 | Guingamp 0W.
What form are RED Star FC 93 and Guingamp in?
RED Star FC 93 (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-D-D-L. Guingamp (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from RED Star FC 93's attack rating (0.94) and Guingamp's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.33 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Guingamp's attack (0.81x) against RED Star FC 93's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 37/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
RED Star FC 93 Win
37%
2.68
30%
3.33
33%
3.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
RED Star FC 93 xG
Total xG
2.56
1.23
Guingamp xG
2.68
37%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
3.06
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
29%
3.42
27%
3.77
Win to Nil
11%
9.18
9%
11.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 9.5 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.7 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.4 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for RED Star FC 93 vs Guingamp?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are RED Star FC 93 and Guingamp expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for RED Star FC 93 and 1.23 for Guingamp, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for RED Star FC 93 vs Guingamp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 38 outings, RED Star FC 93 have picked up 1.58 PPG on a 16W 12D 10L record — L-W-D-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for RED Star FC 93, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Guingamp's form line: 11W 11D 16L from 38 games, 1.16 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-D. It's still early in the season for Guingamp, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, RED Star FC 93 are the form team by 0.42 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Guingamp.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, RED Star FC 93 have posted 1.53 PPG from 19 outings (7W 8D 4L).
On the road, Guingamp have gone 4W 5D 10L from 19 away games — 0.89 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, RED Star FC 93 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
RED Star FC 93 are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Guingamp are on 1.24 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Defensively: RED Star FC 93 have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RED Star FC 93
Early Season
Guingamp
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are RED Star FC 93 and Guingamp in coming into this match?
RED Star FC 93 have gone 16W 12D 10L in their last 38 games (1.58 PPG), while Guingamp have gone 11W 11D 16L in their last 38 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RED Star FC 93 at home or Guingamp away?
RED Star FC 93's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RED Star FC 93 at home: 1.53 PPG; Guingamp away: 0.89 PPG.
Have RED Star FC 93 or Guingamp been keeping clean sheets recently?
RED Star FC 93 have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Guingamp in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
RED Star FC 93 have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: RED Star FC 93 won 0-4 on 23 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, RED Star FC 93 have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Guingamp — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
4
RED Star FC 93
0
Draws
0
Guingamp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between RED Star FC 93 and Guingamp?
From 4 meetings on record, RED Star FC 93 have won 4, Guingamp have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did RED Star FC 93 and Guingamp last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when RED Star FC 93 3-2 Guingamp.
Who has won more matches between RED Star FC 93 and Guingamp?
RED Star FC 93 have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
RED Star FC 93 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — RED Star FC 93 58%, Guingamp 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (RED Star FC 93) and 63% (Guingamp). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: RED Star FC 93 keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; RED Star FC 93 have failed to score in 26% of games; Guingamp in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RED Star FC 93 home games / Guingamp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when RED Star FC 93 play Guingamp?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of RED Star FC 93's games and 63% of Guingamp's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is RED Star FC 93 vs Guingamp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of RED Star FC 93's matches and 63% of Guingamp's.
Do RED Star FC 93 and Guingamp tend to score early?
RED Star FC 93 have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Guingamp in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.