Quevilly 2-1 PAU – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Quevilly at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Quevilly vs PAU encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
PAU make the trip to Stade Robert Diochon to face Quevilly in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 5. The match kicks off on Saturday 27 August 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Quevilly's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W D L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Quevilly have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Quevilly have posted 3W 3D 4L at Stade Robert Diochon — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
PAU have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: W L D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. PAU have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
PAU away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Quevilly. A 0.60 PPG lead over PAU (1.50 vs 0.90) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Quevilly 1W, PAU 1W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 30 Apr 2022, ended 1–2 with PAU winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Quevilly half-time and goal-timing data (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
PAU half-time and goal-timing data (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Quevilly 40% versus PAU 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Quevilly 43% | PAU 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Quevilly 1.40 xG and PAU 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Quevilly attack 0.950 / defence 1.037 | PAU attack 0.908 / defence 1.301. League average goals — home 1.134 / away 1.110. PAU bring a strong defensive rating of 1.301 — this is suppressing Quevilly's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 42 Quevilly games / 42 PAU games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Quevilly 45% | Draw 27% | PAU 28%. Fair-value odds: Quevilly 2.22 | Draw 3.70 | PAU 3.57. Quevilly hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Quevilly are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Quevilly if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.45 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Quevilly 30% | PAU 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Quevilly vs PAU | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stade Robert Diochon • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Aug 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Quevilly 45% | Draw 27% | PAU 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Quevilly 1.40 / PAU 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Quevilly attack 0.950 / def 1.037 | PAU attack 0.908 / def 1.301 | league avg home 1.134 / away 1.110 • Poisson stance: Quevilly (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Quevilly xG
Expected Goals
1.04
PAU xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Quevilly vs PAU kick off?
Quevilly vs PAU kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 27 August 2022 at Stade Robert Diochon.
What was the final score in Quevilly vs PAU?
Quevilly 2 - 1 PAU.
Where is Quevilly vs PAU being played?
The match is being played at Stade Robert Diochon.
What competition is Quevilly vs PAU part of?
Quevilly vs PAU is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Quevilly vs PAU?
Our statistical model gives Quevilly a 45% chance of winning, PAU a 28% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Quevilly the favourite.
Will both teams score in Quevilly vs PAU?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Quevilly and PAU will score (BTTS).
Will Quevilly vs PAU have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Quevilly and PAU?
Record (2 meetings): Quevilly 1W | Draws 0 | PAU 1W.
What form are Quevilly and PAU in?
Quevilly (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-L-D-D. PAU (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Quevilly's attack rating (0.95) and PAU's defence rating (1.30), the model arrives at 1.40 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — PAU's attack (0.91x) against Quevilly's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.5%), 0-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Quevilly Win
45%
2.21
27%
3.73
28%
3.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Quevilly xG
Total xG
2.45
1.04
PAU xG
2.21
45%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
3.57
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
35%
2.84
25%
4.06
Win to Nil
16%
6.29
7%
14.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 9.0 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 12.7 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 8.9 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Quevilly vs PAU?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Quevilly and PAU expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Quevilly and 1.04 for PAU, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Quevilly vs PAU?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Quevilly's recent record stands at 11W 12D 19L from 42 games, a 1.07 PPG return, with W-D-L-D-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Quevilly, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
PAU, meanwhile, have gone 14W 9D 19L across 42 games — 1.21 PPG, with W-L-D-D-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for PAU, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.07 PPG for Quevilly against 1.21 for PAU. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Quevilly have managed 5W 9D 7L from 21 games — 1.14 PPG in front of their own supporters.
PAU's away record stands at 4W 6D 11L across 21 trips, a 0.86 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Quevilly are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; PAU are on 1.00 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Quevilly
Early Season
PAU
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Quevilly and PAU in coming into this match?
Quevilly have gone 11W 12D 19L in their last 42 games (1.07 PPG), while PAU have gone 14W 9D 19L in their last 42 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Quevilly at home or PAU away?
Quevilly's home record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Quevilly at home: 1.14 PPG; PAU away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Quevilly have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against PAU — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Quevilly
1
Draws
1
PAU
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Quevilly and PAU?
From 6 meetings on record, Quevilly have won 4, PAU have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Quevilly and PAU last play each other?
They last met on 17 February 2024, when PAU 0-2 Quevilly.
Who has won more matches between Quevilly and PAU?
Quevilly have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Quevilly are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
PAU see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Quevilly 43%, PAU 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Quevilly) and 48% (PAU).
On the defensive side: Quevilly keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Quevilly have failed to score in 43% of games; PAU in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Quevilly home games / PAU away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Quevilly play PAU?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Quevilly's recent matches and 52% of PAU's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Quevilly vs PAU usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Quevilly's recent games and 48% of PAU's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Quevilly and PAU tend to score early?
Quevilly have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, PAU in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Quevilly edge out PAU 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Quevilly beat PAU 2-1 at Stade Robert Diochon, Regular Season - 5, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Quevilly 1.40 xG and PAU 1.04 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Quevilly attack 0.95 / defence 1.04 against PAU attack 0.91 / defence 1.30, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Quevilly 45% | Draw 27% | PAU 28%, with Quevilly to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Quevilly 43%, PAU 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Quevilly's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
PAU's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Quevilly 1.07 PPG, PAU 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Quevilly win broke the near-deadlock. Quevilly (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.95 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.