Quevilly 0-1 Paris FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Paris FC at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Quevilly vs Paris FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees Paris FC travel to Stade Robert Diochon to take on Quevilly. The game is scheduled for Saturday 28 August 2021, 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Quevilly — All Games: 2W 1D 2L from 5 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: D W W L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Quevilly have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Paris FC stand at 3W 1D 0L from 4 Ligue 2 matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.25 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Paris FC have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Paris FC are 1.10 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 1.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Both teams score in over 75% of each side's relevant games (using overall form). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Data
Quevilly trading profile (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games.
Paris FC trading profile (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Quevilly 75% and Paris FC 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Quevilly 75% | Paris FC 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Quevilly 0.87 xG and Paris FC 1.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Quevilly attack 1.098 / defence 1.277 | Paris FC attack 1.253 / defence 1.071. League average goals — home 0.740 / away 1.167. Paris FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.253 — the away xG of 1.87 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 5 Quevilly games / 4 Paris FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Quevilly 14% | Draw 28% | Paris FC 58%. Fair-value odds: Quevilly 7.14 | Draw 3.57 | Paris FC 1.72. The model has a clear lean to Paris FC (58%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Paris FC are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.74 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Quevilly 80% | Paris FC 75% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Quevilly vs Paris FC | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stade Robert Diochon • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Aug 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Quevilly 14% | Draw 28% | Paris FC 58% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 52% | xG Quevilly 0.87 / Paris FC 1.87 • Poisson strength factors: Quevilly attack 1.098 / def 1.277 | Paris FC attack 1.253 / def 1.071 | league avg home 0.740 / away 1.167 • Poisson stance: Paris FC (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.87
Quevilly xG
Expected Goals
1.87
Paris FC xG
52%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Quevilly vs Paris FC kick off?
Quevilly vs Paris FC kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 28 August 2021 at Stade Robert Diochon.
What was the final score in Quevilly vs Paris FC?
Quevilly 0 - 1 Paris FC.
Where is Quevilly vs Paris FC being played?
The match is being played at Stade Robert Diochon.
What competition is Quevilly vs Paris FC part of?
Quevilly vs Paris FC is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Quevilly vs Paris FC?
Our statistical model gives Quevilly a 14% chance of winning, Paris FC a 58% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Paris FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Quevilly vs Paris FC?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Quevilly and Paris FC will score (BTTS).
Will Quevilly vs Paris FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Quevilly and Paris FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Quevilly and Paris FC in?
Quevilly (all comps): 2W-1D-2L in 5 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-W-L-L. Paris FC (all comps): 3W-1D-0L in 4 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.25 / GA 0.75 | L5 W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Quevilly's attack at 1.10x the league average against Paris FC's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 0.87 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Paris FC's attack versus Quevilly's defence, projects 1.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-2 (11.3%), 0-1 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Paris FC Win
14%
7.02
28%
3.61
58%
1.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.3%
Away win
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.87
Quevilly xG
Total xG
2.74
1.87
Paris FC xG
7.02
14%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
1.72
58%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
15%
6.47
42%
2.39
Win to Nil
2%
45.43
24%
4.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 12.1 | 11.3 | 7.0 | 3.3 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 10.5 | 9.8 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 2.5 | 4.6 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Quevilly vs Paris FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Quevilly and Paris FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.87 expected goals for Quevilly and 1.87 for Paris FC, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Quevilly vs Paris FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Quevilly's recent record stands at 2W 0D 2L from 4 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with W-W-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Quevilly, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Paris FC, meanwhile, have gone 3W 1D 0L across 4 games — 2.50 PPG, with W-W-W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Paris FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Paris FC by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Quevilly heading into this one.
Goals in Recent Form
Quevilly are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Paris FC are on 2.25 scored and 0.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Quevilly have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games; Paris FC in 75%.
Last 4 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Quevilly
Early Season
Paris FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Quevilly and Paris FC in coming into this match?
Quevilly have gone 2W 0D 2L in their last 4 games (1.50 PPG), while Paris FC have gone 3W 1D 0L in their last 4 (2.50 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Feb 2022, when Paris FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Quevilly's record when hosting Paris FC specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Quevilly
2
Draws
3
Paris FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Quevilly and Paris FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Quevilly have won 1, Paris FC have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Quevilly and Paris FC last play each other?
They last met on 24 February 2024, when Quevilly 0-0 Paris FC.
Who has won more matches between Quevilly and Paris FC?
Paris FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Quevilly are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Paris FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Quevilly at 75%, Paris FC at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Quevilly and 75% for Paris FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Quevilly home games / Paris FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Quevilly play Paris FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Quevilly's games and 75% of Paris FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Quevilly vs Paris FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Quevilly's matches and 75% of Paris FC's.
Do Quevilly and Paris FC tend to score early?
Quevilly have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Paris FC in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Paris FC edge out Quevilly 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Paris FC beat Quevilly 0-1 at Stade Robert Diochon, Regular Season - 6, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Quevilly 0.87 xG and Paris FC 1.87 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Quevilly fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Paris FC landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Quevilly attack 1.10 / defence 1.28 against Paris FC attack 1.25 / defence 1.07, drawn from 5/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Quevilly 14% | Draw 28% | Paris FC 58%, with Paris FC to win its most likely call at 58%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Quevilly 75%, Paris FC 75%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Quevilly's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Paris FC's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Paris FC arrived the stronger side — 2.50 PPG against 1.50. Form held, and they took the win. Quevilly managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward. Paris FC managed 1 against a 2.25 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.