Quevilly 3-1 Nimes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Quevilly at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Quevilly vs Nimes fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Nimes travel to Stade Robert Diochon to take on Quevilly. The game is scheduled for Saturday 8 October 2022, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Quevilly stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Quevilly, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Quevilly at Stade Robert Diochon this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Quevilly are significantly better at Stade Robert Diochon than their overall form suggests.
Nimes — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Nimes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nimes's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Quevilly at 1.00 PPG versus Nimes's 0.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Quevilly register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Nimes in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Quevilly, 2 for Nimes and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Apr 2022, ended 0–1 with Nimes winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Quevilly trading profile (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Nimes trading profile (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Quevilly 42% versus Nimes 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Quevilly 46% | Nimes 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Quevilly 1.77 xG and Nimes 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Quevilly attack 1.078 / defence 1.313 | Nimes attack 1.104 / defence 1.365. League average goals — home 1.201 / away 1.115. Nimes bring a strong defensive rating of 1.365 — this is suppressing Quevilly's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 48 Quevilly games / 48 Nimes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Quevilly 42% | Draw 23% | Nimes 36%. Fair-value odds: Quevilly 2.38 | Draw 4.35 | Nimes 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.38. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.38 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.77 / 1.62) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Quevilly at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Quevilly offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.38 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Quevilly 60% | Nimes 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Quevilly vs Nimes | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stade Robert Diochon • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Oct 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Quevilly 42% | Draw 23% | Nimes 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 66% | xG Quevilly 1.77 / Nimes 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Quevilly attack 1.078 / def 1.313 | Nimes attack 1.104 / def 1.365 | league avg home 1.201 / away 1.115 • Poisson stance: Quevilly (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Quevilly xG
Expected Goals
1.62
Nimes xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Quevilly vs Nimes kick off?
Quevilly vs Nimes kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 8 October 2022 at Stade Robert Diochon.
What was the final score in Quevilly vs Nimes?
Quevilly 3 - 1 Nimes.
Where is Quevilly vs Nimes being played?
The match is being played at Stade Robert Diochon.
What competition is Quevilly vs Nimes part of?
Quevilly vs Nimes is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Quevilly vs Nimes?
Our statistical model gives Quevilly a 42% chance of winning, Nimes a 36% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Quevilly the favourite.
Will both teams score in Quevilly vs Nimes?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Quevilly and Nimes will score (BTTS).
Will Quevilly vs Nimes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Quevilly and Nimes?
Record (2 meetings): Quevilly 0W | Draws 0 | Nimes 2W.
What form are Quevilly and Nimes in?
Quevilly (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-L-W. Nimes (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Quevilly's attack at 1.08x the league average against Nimes's defence at 1.36x — combine the two and it projects 1.77 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Nimes's attack versus Quevilly's defence, projects 1.62 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Quevilly Win
42%
2.39
23%
4.42
36%
2.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Quevilly xG
Total xG
3.38
1.62
Nimes xG
2.39
42%
Home win
4.42
23%
Draw
2.81
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.98
Clean Sheet
20%
5.03
17%
5.85
Win to Nil
8%
12.04
6%
16.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 5.5 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 9.7 | 7.8 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.6 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 5.0 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Quevilly vs Nimes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Quevilly and Nimes expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Quevilly and 1.62 for Nimes, a combined total of 3.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Quevilly vs Nimes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 48 outings, Quevilly have picked up 1.08 PPG on a 13W 13D 22L record — L-D-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Quevilly is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Nimes's form line: 16W 9D 23L from 48 games, 1.19 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-L. The sample for Nimes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Quevilly on 1.08 PPG, Nimes on 1.19. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Quevilly have posted 1.17 PPG from 24 outings (6W 10D 8L).
On the road, Nimes have gone 8W 4D 12L from 24 away games — 1.17 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Quevilly are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Nimes are on 1.10 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Quevilly
Blended
Nimes
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Quevilly and Nimes in coming into this match?
Quevilly have gone 13W 13D 22L in their last 48 games (1.08 PPG), while Nimes have gone 16W 9D 23L in their last 48 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Quevilly at home or Nimes away?
Quevilly's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Quevilly at home: 1.17 PPG; Nimes away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Quevilly and Nimes runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Quevilly's record when hosting Nimes specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Quevilly
0
Draws
3
Nimes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Quevilly and Nimes?
From 4 meetings on record, Quevilly have won 1, Nimes have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Quevilly and Nimes last play each other?
They last met on 11 March 2023, when Nimes 2-0 Quevilly.
Who has won more matches between Quevilly and Nimes?
Nimes have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Quevilly are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Nimes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Quevilly 50%, Nimes 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Quevilly) and 58% (Nimes).
On the defensive side: Quevilly have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Quevilly home games / Nimes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Quevilly play Nimes?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Quevilly's recent matches and 50% of Nimes's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Quevilly vs Nimes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Quevilly's recent games and 58% of Nimes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Quevilly and Nimes tend to score early?
Quevilly have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Nimes in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Quevilly cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Nimes.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Quevilly beat Nimes 3-1 at Stade Robert Diochon, Regular Season - 11, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Quevilly 1.77 xG and Nimes 1.62 xG, a combined 3.38. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Quevilly beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Quevilly attack 1.08 / defence 1.31 against Nimes attack 1.10 / defence 1.36, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Quevilly 42% | Draw 23% | Nimes 36%, with Quevilly to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Quevilly 46%, Nimes 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Quevilly's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Nimes's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Quevilly 1.08 PPG, Nimes 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Quevilly win broke the near-deadlock. Quevilly (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm. Nimes (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.46 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.