Quevilly 0-1 Le Havre – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Le Havre at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Quevilly vs Le Havre encounter.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Quevilly and Le Havre meet at Stade Robert Diochon in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 5 November 2022 at 18:00 UTC.

Form

Quevilly (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W W D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Quevilly, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Quevilly's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Stade Robert Diochon this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Le Havre have collected 2.40 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 7W 3D 0L. Last five: W D W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Le Havre, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Le Havre's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Le Havre arrive in superior form — a 1.10 PPG advantage (2.40 vs 1.30) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

Head-to-Head

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Quevilly 0W, Le Havre 2W, 0D.

Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 5 Mar 2022, ended 0–2 with Le Havre winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading Data

Quevilly goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.

Le Havre goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 31% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Quevilly 43% versus Le Havre 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Quevilly 47% | Le Havre 35%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Quevilly 1.10 xG and Le Havre 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Quevilly attack 1.178 / defence 1.270 | Le Havre attack 1.138 / defence 0.789. League average goals — home 1.186 / away 1.051. Le Havre's defence strength of 0.789 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 51 Quevilly games / 51 Le Havre games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Quevilly 28% | Draw 26% | Le Havre 47%. Fair-value odds: Quevilly 3.57 | Draw 3.85 | Le Havre 2.13. Le Havre hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Le Havre are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Le Havre if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.62 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Quevilly 70% | Le Havre 40% BTTS from recent games.

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