Quevilly 2-2 Dijon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Quevilly at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Quevilly vs Dijon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Dijon make the trip to Stade Robert Diochon to face Quevilly in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 31. The match kicks off on Saturday 15 April 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Quevilly's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D L L L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters this season, Quevilly have posted 5W 3D 2L at Stade Robert Diochon — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Dijon have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Dijon's form when playing away from home: 0W 2D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. Quevilly's 1.40 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Dijon's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Quevilly have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Dijon in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Quevilly lead 1W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.3 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Oct 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Quevilly — key trading statistics (68 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Dijon — key trading statistics (68 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Quevilly 40% versus Dijon 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Quevilly 40% | Dijon 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Quevilly 1.66 xG and Dijon 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Quevilly attack 1.095 / defence 0.948 | Dijon attack 0.795 / defence 1.207. League average goals — home 1.256 / away 1.046. Dijon bring a strong defensive rating of 1.207 — this is suppressing Quevilly's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 68 Quevilly games / 68 Dijon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Quevilly 58% | Draw 24% | Dijon 18%. Fair-value odds: Quevilly 1.72 | Draw 4.17 | Dijon 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Quevilly (58%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Quevilly as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.45 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Quevilly 60% | Dijon 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Quevilly vs Dijon | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Stade Robert Diochon • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Apr 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Quevilly 58% | Draw 24% | Dijon 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 44% | xG Quevilly 1.66 / Dijon 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Quevilly attack 1.095 / def 0.948 | Dijon attack 0.795 / def 1.207 | league avg home 1.256 / away 1.046 • Poisson stance: Quevilly (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Quevilly xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Dijon xG
44%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Quevilly vs Dijon kick off?
Quevilly vs Dijon kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 15 April 2023 at Stade Robert Diochon.
What was the final score in Quevilly vs Dijon?
Quevilly 2 - 2 Dijon.
Where is Quevilly vs Dijon being played?
The match is being played at Stade Robert Diochon.
What competition is Quevilly vs Dijon part of?
Quevilly vs Dijon is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Quevilly vs Dijon?
Our statistical model gives Quevilly a 58% chance of winning, Dijon a 18% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Quevilly the favourite.
Will both teams score in Quevilly vs Dijon?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Quevilly and Dijon will score (BTTS).
Will Quevilly vs Dijon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Quevilly and Dijon?
Record (3 meetings): Quevilly 1W | Draws 1 | Dijon 1W.
What form are Quevilly and Dijon in?
Quevilly (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-L-L-L-W. Dijon (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Quevilly's attack at 1.09x the league average against Dijon's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 1.66 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Dijon's attack (0.80x) against Quevilly's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 0.79.
These ratings are built from 68/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (12.8%), 2-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Quevilly Win
58%
1.72
24%
4.10
18%
5.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.9%
Home win
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Quevilly xG
Total xG
2.45
0.79
Dijon xG
1.72
58%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
5.69
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
45%
2.20
19%
5.25
Win to Nil
26%
3.79
3%
29.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 6.8 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.3 | 11.3 | 4.5 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.9 | 9.4 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.6 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Quevilly vs Dijon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Quevilly and Dijon expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Quevilly and 0.79 for Dijon, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Quevilly vs Dijon?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Quevilly's recent record stands at 22W 18D 28L from 68 games, a 1.24 PPG return, with D-L-L-L-W in the last five.
Dijon, meanwhile, have gone 20W 16D 32L across 68 games — 1.12 PPG, with W-L-L-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.24 PPG for Quevilly against 1.12 for Dijon. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Quevilly have managed 11W 13D 9L from 33 games — 1.39 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dijon's away record stands at 6W 8D 19L across 33 trips, a 0.79 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Quevilly come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Quevilly are averaging 0.99 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Dijon are on 1.09 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 68 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Quevilly
Current Season
Dijon
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Quevilly and Dijon in coming into this match?
Quevilly have gone 22W 18D 28L in their last 68 games (1.24 PPG), while Dijon have gone 20W 16D 32L in their last 68 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Quevilly at home or Dijon away?
Quevilly's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Quevilly at home: 1.39 PPG; Dijon away: 0.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Quevilly have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Dijon — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Quevilly
2
Draws
1
Dijon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Quevilly and Dijon?
From 4 meetings on record, Quevilly have won 1, Dijon have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Quevilly and Dijon last play each other?
They last met on 15 April 2023, when Quevilly 2-2 Dijon.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Quevilly are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Dijon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Quevilly 52%, Dijon 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Quevilly) and 58% (Dijon).
On the defensive side: Quevilly keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Quevilly have failed to score in 33% of games; Dijon in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Quevilly home games / Dijon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Quevilly play Dijon?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Quevilly's recent matches and 58% of Dijon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Quevilly vs Dijon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Quevilly's recent games and 58% of Dijon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Quevilly and Dijon tend to score early?
Quevilly have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Dijon in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Quevilly and Dijon share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Robert Diochon, Regular Season - 31, as Quevilly and Dijon drew 2-2 in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Quevilly 1.66 xG and Dijon 0.79 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Dijon outscored their 0.79 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Quevilly attack 1.09 / defence 0.95 against Dijon attack 0.80 / defence 1.21, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Quevilly 58% | Draw 24% | Dijon 18%, with Quevilly to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Quevilly 40%, Dijon 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Quevilly's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Dijon's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Quevilly 1.24 PPG, Dijon 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Quevilly (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Dijon (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.