Quevilly 4-3 Auxerre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Auxerre (45%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Quevilly face Auxerre.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Quevilly host Auxerre at Stade Robert Diochon in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 13 April 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Quevilly stand at 2W 6D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D D L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Quevilly's home record at Stade Robert Diochon: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Auxerre — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
On the road, Auxerre have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Auxerre — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Quevilly register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Auxerre in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Quevilly have won 0, Auxerre 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Dec 2023, ended 2–3 with Auxerre winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Quevilly trading profile (69 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
Auxerre trading profile (69 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Quevilly 52% versus Auxerre 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Quevilly 48% | Auxerre 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Quevilly 0.83 xG and Auxerre 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Quevilly attack 0.788 / defence 1.039 | Auxerre attack 1.035 / defence 0.897. League average goals — home 1.173 / away 1.160. Quevilly's attack strength of 0.788 is below the league average — the 0.83 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 69 Quevilly games / 31 Auxerre games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Quevilly 23% | Draw 32% | Auxerre 45%. Fair-value odds: Quevilly 4.35 | Draw 3.12 | Auxerre 2.22. Auxerre hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Auxerre as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Auxerre offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.08 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. This conflicts with form data: Quevilly 60% | Auxerre 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Quevilly vs Auxerre | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Stade Robert Diochon • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Apr 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Quevilly 23% | Draw 32% | Auxerre 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 42% | xG Quevilly 0.83 / Auxerre 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Quevilly attack 0.788 / def 1.039 | Auxerre attack 1.035 / def 0.897 | league avg home 1.173 / away 1.160 • Poisson stance: Auxerre (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.83
Quevilly xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Auxerre xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Quevilly vs Auxerre kick off?
Quevilly vs Auxerre kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 13 April 2024 at Stade Robert Diochon.
What was the final score in Quevilly vs Auxerre?
Quevilly 4 - 3 Auxerre.
Where is Quevilly vs Auxerre being played?
The match is being played at Stade Robert Diochon.
What competition is Quevilly vs Auxerre part of?
Quevilly vs Auxerre is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Quevilly vs Auxerre?
Our statistical model gives Quevilly a 23% chance of winning, Auxerre a 45% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Auxerre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Quevilly vs Auxerre?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Quevilly and Auxerre will score (BTTS).
Will Quevilly vs Auxerre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Quevilly and Auxerre?
Record (3 meetings): Quevilly 0W | Draws 1 | Auxerre 2W.
What form are Quevilly and Auxerre in?
Quevilly (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-D-L-D. Auxerre (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Quevilly's attack at 0.79x the league average against Auxerre's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 0.83 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Auxerre's attack versus Quevilly's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 69/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.2%), 0-1 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Auxerre Win
23%
4.29
32%
3.13
45%
2.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.83
Quevilly xG
Total xG
2.08
1.25
Auxerre xG
4.29
23%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
2.24
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.41
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
29%
3.48
44%
2.29
Win to Nil
7%
14.92
20%
5.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 15.6 | 9.8 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 13.0 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 5.4 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Quevilly vs Auxerre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Quevilly and Auxerre expected to score?
The model projects 0.83 expected goals for Quevilly and 1.25 for Auxerre, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Quevilly vs Auxerre?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Quevilly's recent record stands at 17W 28D 24L from 69 games, a 1.14 PPG return, with D-D-D-L-D in the last five.
Auxerre, meanwhile, have gone 25W 21D 23L across 69 games — 1.39 PPG, with D-L-W-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Quevilly on 1.14 PPG, Auxerre on 1.39. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Quevilly have managed 8W 15D 11L from 34 games — 1.15 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Auxerre's away record stands at 11W 9D 14L across 34 trips, a 1.24 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Quevilly are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Auxerre are on 1.32 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 69 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Quevilly
Current Season
Auxerre
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Quevilly and Auxerre in coming into this match?
Quevilly have gone 17W 28D 24L in their last 69 games (1.14 PPG), while Auxerre have gone 25W 21D 23L in their last 69 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Quevilly at home or Auxerre away?
Auxerre's away record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Quevilly at home: 1.15 PPG; Auxerre away: 1.24 PPG.
Have Quevilly or Auxerre been keeping clean sheets recently?
Quevilly have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Auxerre in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Quevilly and Auxerre runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Quevilly's record when hosting Auxerre specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Quevilly
1
Draws
2
Auxerre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Quevilly and Auxerre?
From 4 meetings on record, Quevilly have won 1, Auxerre have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Quevilly and Auxerre last play each other?
They last met on 13 April 2024, when Quevilly 4-3 Auxerre.
Who has won more matches between Quevilly and Auxerre?
Auxerre have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Quevilly are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Quevilly 62%, Auxerre 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Quevilly) and 53% (Auxerre).
On the defensive side: Quevilly have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Quevilly home games / Auxerre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Quevilly play Auxerre?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Quevilly's games and 62% of Auxerre's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Quevilly vs Auxerre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Quevilly's recent games and 53% of Auxerre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Quevilly and Auxerre tend to score early?
Quevilly have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Auxerre in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Quevilly defy the odds to beat Auxerre 4-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Quevilly beat Auxerre 4-3 at Stade Robert Diochon, Regular Season - 32, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Quevilly 0.83 xG and Auxerre 1.25 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. Quevilly beat their projection by 3.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Auxerre outscored their 1.25 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Quevilly attack 0.79 / defence 1.04 against Auxerre attack 1.03 / defence 0.90, drawn from 69/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Quevilly 23% | Draw 32% | Auxerre 45%, with Auxerre to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a Quevilly win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Quevilly 48%, Auxerre 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Quevilly's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Auxerre's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Quevilly 1.14 PPG, Auxerre 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Quevilly win broke the near-deadlock. Quevilly (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.24 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.24 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Auxerre (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.29 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.47 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.