Quevilly 3-3 Amiens – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Amiens at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Quevilly vs Amiens fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Robert Diochon plays host to Quevilly versus Amiens in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off: Tuesday 23 April 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Quevilly have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 2W 6D 2L. Last five: D L D W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Quevilly's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Stade Robert Diochon this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Amiens's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 1W 6D 3L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: W L D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Amiens have posted 3W 5D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Quevilly, 0.90 for Amiens — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Quevilly 2W, Amiens 2W, 1D.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Aug 2023, ended 0–1 with Amiens winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Quevilly half-time and goal-timing data (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
Amiens half-time and goal-timing data (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Quevilly 52% versus Amiens 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Quevilly 48% | Amiens 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Quevilly 0.91 xG and Amiens 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Quevilly attack 1.020 / defence 1.165 | Amiens attack 0.749 / defence 0.772. League average goals — home 1.157 / away 1.156. Amiens's defence strength of 0.772 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 71 Quevilly games / 71 Amiens games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Quevilly 31% | Draw 33% | Amiens 36%. Fair-value odds: Quevilly 3.23 | Draw 3.03 | Amiens 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.92. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.92 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Amiens at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Amiens if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.92 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 30% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates corroborate: Quevilly 60% | Amiens 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Quevilly vs Amiens | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stade Robert Diochon • Kick-off: Tuesday 23 Apr 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Quevilly 31% | Draw 33% | Amiens 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 39% | xG Quevilly 0.91 / Amiens 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Quevilly attack 1.020 / def 1.165 | Amiens attack 0.749 / def 0.772 | league avg home 1.157 / away 1.156 • Poisson stance: Amiens (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Quevilly xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Amiens xG
39%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Quevilly vs Amiens kick off?
Quevilly vs Amiens kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 23 April 2024 at Stade Robert Diochon.
What was the final score in Quevilly vs Amiens?
Quevilly 3 - 3 Amiens.
Where is Quevilly vs Amiens being played?
The match is being played at Stade Robert Diochon.
What competition is Quevilly vs Amiens part of?
Quevilly vs Amiens is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Quevilly vs Amiens?
Our statistical model gives Quevilly a 31% chance of winning, Amiens a 36% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Amiens the favourite.
Will both teams score in Quevilly vs Amiens?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Quevilly and Amiens will score (BTTS).
Will Quevilly vs Amiens have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Quevilly and Amiens?
Record (5 meetings): Quevilly 2W | Draws 1 | Amiens 2W.
What form are Quevilly and Amiens in?
Quevilly (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-D-W-D. Amiens (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Quevilly's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Amiens's defensive record (0.77x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.91. Flip it around — Amiens's attack (0.75x) against Quevilly's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from 71/71 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Amiens Win
31%
3.25
33%
3.01
36%
2.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.7%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Quevilly xG
Total xG
1.92
1.01
Amiens xG
3.25
31%
Home win
3.01
33%
Draw
2.78
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.58
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
36%
2.74
40%
2.49
Win to Nil
11%
8.91
14%
6.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.7 | 14.8 | 7.5 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 13.5 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 6.1 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Quevilly vs Amiens?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.4%.
How many goals are Quevilly and Amiens expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Quevilly and 1.01 for Amiens, a combined total of 1.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Quevilly vs Amiens?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Quevilly come into this having played 71 games, going 18W 29D 24L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-W-D.
On the other side, Amiens sit at 1.28 PPG from 71 outings (23W 22D 26L), a run that reads W-L-D-D-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.17 PPG for Quevilly against 1.28 for Amiens. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Quevilly's home form reads 9W 15D 11L across 35 games on their own ground, a 1.20 PPG return.
Away from home, Amiens have taken 1.17 points per game from 35 outings (10W 11D 14L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Quevilly are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Amiens are on 0.96 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Last 71 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Quevilly
Current Season
Amiens
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Quevilly and Amiens in coming into this match?
Quevilly have gone 18W 29D 24L in their last 71 games (1.17 PPG), while Amiens have gone 23W 22D 26L in their last 71 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Quevilly at home or Amiens away?
Quevilly's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Quevilly at home: 1.20 PPG; Amiens away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Quevilly or Amiens been keeping clean sheets recently?
Quevilly have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Amiens in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Quevilly have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Amiens — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Quevilly
2
Draws
2
Amiens
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Quevilly and Amiens?
From 6 meetings on record, Quevilly have won 2, Amiens have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Quevilly and Amiens last play each other?
They last met on 23 April 2024, when Quevilly 3-3 Amiens.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Quevilly are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Amiens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Quevilly 63%, Amiens 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 51% (Quevilly) and 37% (Amiens).
On the defensive side: Quevilly have failed to score in 31% of games; Amiens in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Quevilly home games / Amiens away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Quevilly play Amiens?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 63% of Quevilly's recent matches and 43% of Amiens's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Quevilly vs Amiens usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 51% of Quevilly's recent games and 37% of Amiens's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Quevilly and Amiens tend to score early?
Quevilly have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Amiens in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Quevilly and Amiens share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Robert Diochon, Regular Season - 34, as Quevilly and Amiens drew 3-3 in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Quevilly 0.91 xG and Amiens 1.01 xG, a combined 1.92. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Quevilly beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Amiens outscored their 1.01 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Quevilly attack 1.02 / defence 1.17 against Amiens attack 0.75 / defence 0.77, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Quevilly 31% | Draw 33% | Amiens 36%, with Amiens to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Quevilly 48%, Amiens 35%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Quevilly's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Amiens's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Quevilly 1.17 PPG, Amiens 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Quevilly (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.31 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Amiens (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.89 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.