Quevilly 0-1 Ajaccio – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Quevilly at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Quevilly vs Ajaccio fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 2 as Quevilly welcome Ajaccio to Stade Robert Diochon. Kick-off is set for Saturday 12 August 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Quevilly have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: D L L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Quevilly have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stade Robert Diochon, Quevilly have gone 3W 5D 2L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Ajaccio — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Ajaccio have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ajaccio's away record: 1W 0D 9L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 3.10 conceded per game.
On current form, Quevilly have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.10 vs 0.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Quevilly, 0 for Ajaccio and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 15 Mar 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Quevilly in-play and half-time data (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Ajaccio in-play and half-time data (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); they fail to score in 56% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Quevilly 46% versus Ajaccio 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Quevilly 44% | Ajaccio 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Quevilly 1.49 xG and Ajaccio 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Quevilly attack 1.024 / defence 1.047 | Ajaccio attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.263 / away 1.183. Data: 39 Quevilly games / 1 Ajaccio games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Quevilly 47% | Draw 26% | Ajaccio 27%. Fair-value odds: Quevilly 2.13 | Draw 3.85 | Ajaccio 3.70. Quevilly hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Quevilly as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Quevilly offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.54 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Quevilly 70% | Ajaccio 40% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Quevilly vs Ajaccio | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stade Robert Diochon • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Aug 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Quevilly 47% | Draw 26% | Ajaccio 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 50% | xG Quevilly 1.49 / Ajaccio 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Quevilly attack 1.024 / def 1.047 | Ajaccio attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.263 / away 1.183 • Poisson stance: Quevilly (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Quevilly xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Ajaccio xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Quevilly vs Ajaccio kick off?
Quevilly vs Ajaccio kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 12 August 2023 at Stade Robert Diochon.
What was the final score in Quevilly vs Ajaccio?
Quevilly 0 - 1 Ajaccio.
Where is Quevilly vs Ajaccio being played?
The match is being played at Stade Robert Diochon.
What competition is Quevilly vs Ajaccio part of?
Quevilly vs Ajaccio is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Quevilly vs Ajaccio?
Our statistical model gives Quevilly a 47% chance of winning, Ajaccio a 27% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Quevilly the favourite.
Will both teams score in Quevilly vs Ajaccio?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Quevilly and Ajaccio will score (BTTS).
Will Quevilly vs Ajaccio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Quevilly and Ajaccio?
Record (2 meetings): Quevilly 1W | Draws 1 | Ajaccio 0W.
What form are Quevilly and Ajaccio in?
Quevilly (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-L-D-L. Ajaccio (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.30 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Quevilly's attack rating (1.02) and Ajaccio's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.49 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Ajaccio's attack versus Quevilly's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (39/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.1%), 0-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Quevilly Win
47%
2.12
26%
3.85
27%
3.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Quevilly xG
Total xG
2.54
1.05
Ajaccio xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
3.73
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
23%
4.43
Win to Nil
16%
6.06
6%
16.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 8.3 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 12.3 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.2 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Quevilly vs Ajaccio?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Quevilly and Ajaccio expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Quevilly and 1.05 for Ajaccio, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Quevilly vs Ajaccio?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 39 outings, Quevilly have picked up 1.28 PPG on a 12W 14D 13L record — D-L-L-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Quevilly, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Ajaccio's form line: 7W 6D 26L from 39 games, 0.69 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-D. It's still early in the season for Ajaccio, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Quevilly are the form team by 0.59 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ajaccio.
Venue Form
On home soil, Quevilly have posted 1.42 PPG from 19 outings (6W 9D 4L).
On the road, Ajaccio have gone 3W 2D 14L from 19 away games — 0.58 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Quevilly come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Quevilly are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Ajaccio are on 0.62 scored and 1.92 conceded.
Last 39 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Quevilly
Early Season
Ajaccio
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Quevilly and Ajaccio in coming into this match?
Quevilly have gone 12W 14D 13L in their last 39 games (1.28 PPG), while Ajaccio have gone 7W 6D 26L in their last 39 (0.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Quevilly at home or Ajaccio away?
Quevilly's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Quevilly at home: 1.42 PPG; Ajaccio away: 0.58 PPG.
Have Quevilly or Ajaccio been keeping clean sheets recently?
Quevilly have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Ajaccio in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Quevilly's record when hosting Ajaccio specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Quevilly
2
Draws
1
Ajaccio
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Quevilly and Ajaccio?
From 4 meetings on record, Quevilly have won 1, Ajaccio have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Quevilly and Ajaccio last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2024, when Ajaccio 1-1 Quevilly.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Quevilly are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Ajaccio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Quevilly 68%, Ajaccio 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for Quevilly and 68% for Ajaccio. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ajaccio in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Quevilly home games / Ajaccio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Quevilly play Ajaccio?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Quevilly's games and 47% of Ajaccio's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Quevilly vs Ajaccio usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Quevilly's matches and 68% of Ajaccio's.
Do Quevilly and Ajaccio tend to score early?
Quevilly have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Ajaccio in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Ajaccio defy the odds to beat Quevilly 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ajaccio beat Quevilly 0-1 at Stade Robert Diochon, Regular Season - 2, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Quevilly 1.49 xG and Ajaccio 1.05 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Quevilly fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Quevilly attack 1.02 / defence 1.05 against Ajaccio attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 39/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Quevilly 47% | Draw 26% | Ajaccio 27%, with Quevilly to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Ajaccio win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Quevilly 44%, Ajaccio 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Quevilly's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Ajaccio's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Quevilly arrived the stronger side — 1.28 PPG against 0.69. Form was overturned, with Ajaccio winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Quevilly (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward. Ajaccio (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.32 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.