PAU 2-2 Rodez – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rodez at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this PAU vs Rodez fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Nouste Camp plays host to PAU versus Rodez in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Saturday 8 October 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
PAU have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D D W W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for PAU, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PAU's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Stade Nouste Camp this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Rodez's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L D W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Rodez, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rodez's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for PAU, 1.00 for Rodez — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — PAU lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Jan 2022, ended 4–0 with PAU winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
PAU goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Rodez goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAU 46% versus Rodez 35%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (PAU 46% | Rodez 27%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAU 0.80 xG and Rodez 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAU attack 0.891 / defence 1.074 | Rodez attack 0.873 / defence 0.744. League average goals — home 1.201 / away 1.115. Rodez's defence strength of 0.744 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 48 PAU games / 48 Rodez games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAU 27% | Draw 32% | Rodez 41%. Fair-value odds: PAU 3.70 | Draw 3.12 | Rodez 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.84. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.84 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rodez are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rodez if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.84 combined xG gives a 28% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 36%. Form rates corroborate: PAU 50% | Rodez 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAU vs Rodez | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stade Nouste Camp • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Oct 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAU 27% | Draw 32% | Rodez 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 36% | xG PAU 0.80 / Rodez 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: PAU attack 0.891 / def 1.074 | Rodez attack 0.873 / def 0.744 | league avg home 1.201 / away 1.115 • Poisson stance: Rodez (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.80
PAU xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Rodez xG
36%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAU vs Rodez kick off?
PAU vs Rodez kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 8 October 2022 at Stade Nouste Camp.
What was the final score in PAU vs Rodez?
PAU 2 - 2 Rodez.
Where is PAU vs Rodez being played?
The match is being played at Stade Nouste Camp.
What competition is PAU vs Rodez part of?
PAU vs Rodez is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win PAU vs Rodez?
Our statistical model gives PAU a 27% chance of winning, Rodez a 41% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Rodez the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAU vs Rodez?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both PAU and Rodez will score (BTTS).
Will PAU vs Rodez have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and Rodez?
Record (2 meetings): PAU 1W | Draws 0 | Rodez 1W.
What form are PAU and Rodez in?
PAU (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-W-W-L. Rodez (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
PAU's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Rodez's defensive record (0.74x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.80. Flip it around — Rodez's attack (0.87x) against PAU's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 0-1 (14.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rodez Win
27%
3.67
32%
3.12
41%
2.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.6%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.9%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.80
PAU xG
Total xG
1.84
1.04
Rodez xG
3.67
27%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
2.46
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.81
64%
BTTS No
1.55
Clean Sheet
35%
2.84
45%
2.22
Win to Nil
10%
10.44
18%
5.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.9 | 16.6 | 8.7 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 13.2 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAU vs Rodez?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.6%.
How many goals are PAU and Rodez expected to score?
The model projects 0.80 expected goals for PAU and 1.04 for Rodez, a combined total of 1.84.
How confident is the prediction model for PAU vs Rodez?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
PAU come into this having played 48 games, going 16W 11D 21L for 1.23 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-W-L. The sample for PAU is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Rodez sit at 1.10 PPG from 48 outings (12W 17D 19L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Rodez is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.23 PPG for PAU against 1.10 for Rodez. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
PAU's home form reads 11W 4D 8L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.61 PPG return.
Away from home, Rodez have taken 1.17 points per game from 23 outings (7W 6D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PAU come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
PAU are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Rodez are on 0.83 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Defensively: Rodez in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAU
Blended
Rodez
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAU and Rodez in coming into this match?
PAU have gone 16W 11D 21L in their last 48 games (1.23 PPG), while Rodez have gone 12W 17D 19L in their last 48 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAU at home or Rodez away?
PAU's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAU at home: 1.61 PPG; Rodez away: 1.17 PPG.
Have PAU or Rodez been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAU have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Rodez in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 3 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Rodez won 0-5 on 14 Feb 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PAU have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Rodez — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
PAU
3
Draws
4
Rodez
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and Rodez?
From 10 meetings on record, PAU have won 3, Rodez have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did PAU and Rodez last play each other?
They last met on 3 January 2026, when PAU 3-3 Rodez.
Who has won more matches between PAU and Rodez?
Rodez have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
PAU are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Rodez are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 39% (PAU) and 30% (Rodez) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (PAU) and 26% (Rodez).
On the defensive side: PAU keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Rodez in 39%; PAU have failed to score in 26% of games; Rodez in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAU home games / Rodez away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAU play Rodez?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of PAU's recent matches and 30% of Rodez's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAU vs Rodez usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of PAU's recent games and 26% of Rodez's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAU and Rodez tend to score early?
PAU have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Rodez in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
PAU and Rodez share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAU and Rodez finished level at 2-2 at Stade Nouste Camp, Regular Season - 11, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAU 0.80 xG and Rodez 1.04 xG, a combined 1.84. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. PAU beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Rodez outscored their 1.04 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAU attack 0.89 / defence 1.07 against Rodez attack 0.87 / defence 0.74, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAU 27% | Draw 32% | Rodez 41%, with Rodez to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. Over 3.5 was 12% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAU 46%, Rodez 27%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAU's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Rodez's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PAU 1.23 PPG, Rodez 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. PAU (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Rodez (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.87 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.