PAU vs RED Star FC 93 – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates RED Star FC 93 at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this PAU vs RED Star FC 93 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees RED Star FC 93 travel to Nouste Camp to take on PAU. The game is scheduled for Friday 19 February 2027, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, PAU stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. PAU have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
PAU at Nouste Camp this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, RED Star FC 93 have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D D L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. RED Star FC 93 have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
RED Star FC 93's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: PAU 1.10 PPG, RED Star FC 93 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. PAU register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, RED Star FC 93 in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for PAU, 1 for RED Star FC 93 and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 Feb 2026, ended 3–0 with PAU winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
PAU trading profile (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
RED Star FC 93 trading profile (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAU 54% versus RED Star FC 93 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAU 62% | RED Star FC 93 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAU 0.86 xG and RED Star FC 93 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAU attack 0.807 / defence 1.051 | RED Star FC 93 attack 0.984 / defence 0.892. League average goals — home 1.201 / away 1.274. Data: 39 PAU games / 38 RED Star FC 93 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAU 22% | Draw 34% | RED Star FC 93 44%. Fair-value odds: PAU 4.55 | Draw 2.94 | RED Star FC 93 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates RED Star FC 93 as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on RED Star FC 93 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.18 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: PAU 60% | RED Star FC 93 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAU vs RED Star FC 93 | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Nouste Camp • Kick-off: Friday 19 Feb 2027, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAU 22% | Draw 34% | RED Star FC 93 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 45% | xG PAU 0.86 / RED Star FC 93 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: PAU attack 0.807 / def 1.051 | RED Star FC 93 attack 0.984 / def 0.892 | league avg home 1.201 / away 1.274 • Poisson stance: RED Star FC 93 (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.86
PAU xG
Expected Goals
1.32
RED Star FC 93 xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAU vs RED Star FC 93 kick off?
PAU vs RED Star FC 93 is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 19 February 2027 at Nouste Camp.
Where is PAU vs RED Star FC 93 being played?
The match is being played at Nouste Camp.
What competition is PAU vs RED Star FC 93 part of?
PAU vs RED Star FC 93 is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win PAU vs RED Star FC 93?
Our statistical model gives PAU a 22% chance of winning, RED Star FC 93 a 44% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making RED Star FC 93 the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAU vs RED Star FC 93?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both PAU and RED Star FC 93 will score (BTTS).
Will PAU vs RED Star FC 93 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and RED Star FC 93?
Record (4 meetings): PAU 3W | Draws 0 | RED Star FC 93 1W.
What form are PAU and RED Star FC 93 in?
PAU (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-D-D. RED Star FC 93 (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates PAU's attack at 0.81x the league average against RED Star FC 93's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 0.86 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, RED Star FC 93's attack versus PAU's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (13.2%), 0-0 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
RED Star FC 93 Win
22%
4.62
34%
2.94
44%
2.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.86
PAU xG
Total xG
2.18
1.32
RED Star FC 93 xG
4.62
22%
Home win
2.94
34%
Draw
2.26
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
27%
3.74
42%
2.38
Win to Nil
6%
17.27
19%
5.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 14.9 | 9.8 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.8 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 5.6 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAU vs RED Star FC 93?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are PAU and RED Star FC 93 expected to score?
The model projects 0.86 expected goals for PAU and 1.32 for RED Star FC 93, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for PAU vs RED Star FC 93?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 39 outings, PAU have picked up 1.28 PPG on a 13W 11D 15L record — L-W-L-D-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for PAU, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
RED Star FC 93's form line: 17W 12D 10L from 39 games, 1.62 PPG, last five W-D-D-L-W. It's still early in the season for RED Star FC 93, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: PAU on 1.28 PPG, RED Star FC 93 on 1.62. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, PAU have posted 0.95 PPG from 19 outings (4W 6D 9L).
On the road, RED Star FC 93 have gone 10W 4D 5L from 19 away games — 1.79 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, RED Star FC 93 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
PAU are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; RED Star FC 93 are on 1.33 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Defensively: RED Star FC 93 in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAU
Early Season
RED Star FC 93
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAU and RED Star FC 93 in coming into this match?
PAU have gone 13W 11D 15L in their last 39 games (1.28 PPG), while RED Star FC 93 have gone 17W 12D 10L in their last 39 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAU at home or RED Star FC 93 away?
RED Star FC 93's away record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAU at home: 0.95 PPG; RED Star FC 93 away: 1.79 PPG.
Have PAU or RED Star FC 93 been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAU have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, RED Star FC 93 in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 6 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Nov 2024, when PAU won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
PAU's record when hosting RED Star FC 93 specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
PAU
0
Draws
1
RED Star FC 93
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and RED Star FC 93?
From 4 meetings on record, PAU have won 3, RED Star FC 93 have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did PAU and RED Star FC 93 last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2026, when RED Star FC 93 0-3 PAU.
Who has won more matches between PAU and RED Star FC 93?
PAU have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
PAU are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 26% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
RED Star FC 93 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAU 58%, RED Star FC 93 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (PAU) and 47% (RED Star FC 93). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 16% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: RED Star FC 93 in 42%; PAU have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAU home games / RED Star FC 93 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAU play RED Star FC 93?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of PAU's recent matches and 42% of RED Star FC 93's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAU vs RED Star FC 93 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of PAU's matches and 47% of RED Star FC 93's.
Do PAU and RED Star FC 93 tend to score early?
PAU have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, RED Star FC 93 in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.