PAU 0-1 Paris FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Paris FC at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this PAU vs Paris FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 16 as PAU welcome Paris FC to Stade Nouste Camp. Kick-off is set for Monday 26 December 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
PAU — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: D W W W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for PAU, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PAU's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Stade Nouste Camp this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.30 lags behind their overall 1.90 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stade Nouste Camp this season.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Paris FC have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Paris FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Paris FC have posted 5W 3D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
PAU carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 1.40. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for PAU, 0 for Paris FC and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 19 Mar 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
PAU in-play and half-time data (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Paris FC in-play and half-time data (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAU 47% versus Paris FC 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAU 45% | Paris FC 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAU 0.91 xG and Paris FC 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAU attack 1.034 / defence 1.057 | Paris FC attack 1.025 / defence 0.778. League average goals — home 1.127 / away 1.040. Paris FC's defence strength of 0.778 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 53 PAU games / 53 Paris FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAU 29% | Draw 30% | Paris FC 41%. Fair-value odds: PAU 3.45 | Draw 3.33 | Paris FC 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Paris FC are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form PAU (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Paris FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.03 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates are neutral: PAU 50% | Paris FC 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAU vs Paris FC | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stade Nouste Camp • Kick-off: Monday 26 Dec 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAU 29% | Draw 30% | Paris FC 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 40% | xG PAU 0.91 / Paris FC 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: PAU attack 1.034 / def 1.057 | Paris FC attack 1.025 / def 0.778 | league avg home 1.127 / away 1.040 • Poisson stance: Paris FC (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
PAU xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Paris FC xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAU vs Paris FC kick off?
PAU vs Paris FC kicked off at 20:00 on Monday 26 December 2022 at Stade Nouste Camp.
What was the final score in PAU vs Paris FC?
PAU 0 - 1 Paris FC.
Where is PAU vs Paris FC being played?
The match is being played at Stade Nouste Camp.
What competition is PAU vs Paris FC part of?
PAU vs Paris FC is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win PAU vs Paris FC?
Our statistical model gives PAU a 29% chance of winning, Paris FC a 41% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Paris FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAU vs Paris FC?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both PAU and Paris FC will score (BTTS).
Will PAU vs Paris FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and Paris FC?
Record (2 meetings): PAU 1W | Draws 1 | Paris FC 0W.
What form are PAU and Paris FC in?
PAU (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-W-D. Paris FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from PAU's attack rating (1.03) and Paris FC's defence rating (0.78), the model arrives at 0.91 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Paris FC's attack versus PAU's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.8%), 0-1 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Paris FC Win
29%
3.43
30%
3.30
41%
2.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
PAU xG
Total xG
2.03
1.13
Paris FC xG
3.43
29%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
2.47
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.48
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
32%
3.09
40%
2.48
Win to Nil
9%
10.58
16%
6.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.1 | 14.7 | 8.3 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.4 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 6.1 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAU vs Paris FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are PAU and Paris FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for PAU and 1.13 for Paris FC, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for PAU vs Paris FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
PAU come into this having played 53 games, going 19W 13D 21L for 1.32 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-D. The sample for PAU is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Paris FC sit at 1.64 PPG from 53 outings (24W 15D 14L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for Paris FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: PAU on 1.32 PPG, Paris FC on 1.64. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
PAU's home form reads 13W 5D 8L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.69 PPG return.
Away from home, Paris FC have taken 1.62 points per game from 26 outings (12W 6D 8L).
The Goals Picture
PAU are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Paris FC are on 1.23 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Paris FC in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAU
Blended
Paris FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAU and Paris FC in coming into this match?
PAU have gone 19W 13D 21L in their last 53 games (1.32 PPG), while Paris FC have gone 24W 15D 14L in their last 53 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAU at home or Paris FC away?
PAU's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAU at home: 1.69 PPG; Paris FC away: 1.62 PPG.
Have PAU or Paris FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAU have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Paris FC in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between PAU and Paris FC runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
PAU's record when hosting Paris FC specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
PAU
3
Draws
2
Paris FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and Paris FC?
From 8 meetings on record, PAU have won 3, Paris FC have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did PAU and Paris FC last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2025, when Paris FC 3-1 PAU.
Who has won more matches between PAU and Paris FC?
PAU have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
PAU are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Paris FC see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAU 42%, Paris FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (PAU) and 38% (Paris FC).
On the defensive side: PAU keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Paris FC in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAU home games / Paris FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAU play Paris FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of PAU's recent matches and 50% of Paris FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAU vs Paris FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of PAU's recent games and 38% of Paris FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAU and Paris FC tend to score early?
PAU have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Paris FC in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Paris FC edge out PAU 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Paris FC beat PAU 0-1 at Stade Nouste Camp, Regular Season - 16, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAU 0.91 xG and Paris FC 1.13 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. PAU fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAU attack 1.03 / defence 1.06 against Paris FC attack 1.02 / defence 0.78, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAU 29% | Draw 30% | Paris FC 41%, with Paris FC to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAU 45%, Paris FC 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAU's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Paris FC's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PAU 1.32 PPG, Paris FC 1.64 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Paris FC win broke the near-deadlock. PAU (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward. Paris FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.