PAU 1-0 Caen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates PAU at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this PAU vs Caen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
PAU host Caen at Stade Nouste Camp in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 19 February 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, PAU stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D L D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for PAU, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PAU's home record at Stade Nouste Camp: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Nouste Camp. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — PAU are significantly better at Stade Nouste Camp than their overall form suggests.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Caen have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W L D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Caen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Caen have gone 1W 7D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: PAU 1.10 PPG, Caen 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, PAU have won 1, Caen 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 11 Sep 2021, ended 2–1 with PAU winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
PAU trading profile (24 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Caen trading profile (24 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAU 42% versus Caen 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAU 42% | Caen 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAU 1.38 xG and Caen 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAU attack 1.040 / defence 1.214 | Caen attack 0.999 / defence 1.341. League average goals — home 0.988 / away 1.012. Caen bring a strong defensive rating of 1.341 — this is suppressing PAU's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 24 PAU games / 24 Caen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAU 40% | Draw 28% | Caen 33%. Fair-value odds: PAU 2.50 | Draw 3.57 | Caen 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, PAU are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on PAU offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.60 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral: PAU 30% | Caen 70%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAU vs Caen | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stade Nouste Camp • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Feb 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAU 40% | Draw 28% | Caen 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 54% | xG PAU 1.38 / Caen 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: PAU attack 1.040 / def 1.214 | Caen attack 0.999 / def 1.341 | league avg home 0.988 / away 1.012 • Poisson stance: PAU (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
PAU xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Caen xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAU vs Caen kick off?
PAU vs Caen kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 19 February 2022 at Stade Nouste Camp.
What was the final score in PAU vs Caen?
PAU 1 - 0 Caen.
Where is PAU vs Caen being played?
The match is being played at Stade Nouste Camp.
What competition is PAU vs Caen part of?
PAU vs Caen is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win PAU vs Caen?
Our statistical model gives PAU a 40% chance of winning, Caen a 33% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making PAU the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAU vs Caen?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both PAU and Caen will score (BTTS).
Will PAU vs Caen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and Caen?
Record (1 meetings): PAU 1W | Draws 0 | Caen 0W.
What form are PAU and Caen in?
PAU (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-L-D-W. Caen (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates PAU's attack at 1.04x the league average against Caen's defence at 1.34x — combine the two and it projects 1.38 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Caen's attack versus PAU's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.0%), 2-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAU Win
40%
2.52
28%
3.60
33%
3.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
PAU xG
Total xG
2.60
1.23
Caen xG
2.52
40%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
3.07
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
29%
3.41
25%
3.97
Win to Nil
12%
8.61
8%
12.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 9.1 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.5 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.6 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAU vs Caen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are PAU and Caen expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for PAU and 1.23 for Caen, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for PAU vs Caen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
PAU's recent record stands at 9W 5D 10L from 24 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with W-D-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for PAU is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Caen, meanwhile, have gone 7W 8D 9L across 24 games — 1.21 PPG, with L-W-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Caen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: PAU on 1.33 PPG, Caen on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, PAU have managed 6W 1D 4L from 11 games — 1.73 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Caen's away record stands at 2W 7D 2L across 11 trips, a 1.18 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PAU come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
PAU are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Caen are on 1.29 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Last 24 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAU
Blended
Caen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAU and Caen in coming into this match?
PAU have gone 9W 5D 10L in their last 24 games (1.33 PPG), while Caen have gone 7W 8D 9L in their last 24 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAU at home or Caen away?
PAU's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAU at home: 1.73 PPG; Caen away: 1.18 PPG.
Have PAU or Caen been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAU have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Caen in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
PAU's record when hosting Caen specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
PAU
2
Draws
2
Caen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and Caen?
From 8 meetings on record, PAU have won 4, Caen have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did PAU and Caen last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2025, when Caen 2-2 PAU.
Who has won more matches between PAU and Caen?
PAU have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
PAU are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Caen see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAU 27%, Caen 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (PAU) and 36% (Caen).
On the defensive side: PAU keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Caen in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAU home games / Caen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAU play Caen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 27% of PAU's recent matches and 64% of Caen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAU vs Caen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of PAU's recent games and 36% of Caen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAU and Caen tend to score early?
PAU have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Caen in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as PAU edge out Caen 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAU beat Caen 1-0 at Stade Nouste Camp, Regular Season - 25, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAU 1.38 xG and Caen 1.23 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Caen landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAU attack 1.04 / defence 1.21 against Caen attack 1.00 / defence 1.34, drawn from 24/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAU 40% | Draw 28% | Caen 33%, with PAU to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAU 42%, Caen 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAU's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Caen's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PAU 1.33 PPG, Caen 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the PAU win broke the near-deadlock. PAU (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.82 average — tighter than their form line. Caen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.