PAU 3-0 Bordeaux – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Bordeaux at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this PAU vs Bordeaux encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 1 as PAU welcome Bordeaux to Stade Nouste Camp. Kick-off is set for Monday 7 August 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, PAU stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. PAU haven't played a Ligue 2 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
PAU's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at Stade Nouste Camp this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Bordeaux — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Bordeaux haven't played a Ligue 2 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
On the road, Bordeaux have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Bordeaux's 2.20 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of PAU's 1.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, PAU have won 0, Bordeaux 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Feb 2023, ended 0–2 with Bordeaux winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
PAU in-play and half-time data (37 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Bordeaux in-play and half-time data (37 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAU 49% versus Bordeaux 38%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (PAU 35% | Bordeaux 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAU 1.16 xG and Bordeaux 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAU attack 1.038 / defence 1.162 | Bordeaux attack 0.918 / defence 0.911. League average goals — home 1.222 / away 1.211. Data: 38 PAU games / 37 Bordeaux games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: PAU 33% | Draw 27% | Bordeaux 40%. Fair-value odds: PAU 3.03 | Draw 3.70 | Bordeaux 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bordeaux at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bordeaux offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.45 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates corroborate: PAU 50% | Bordeaux 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (37 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAU vs Bordeaux | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stade Nouste Camp • Kick-off: Monday 7 Aug 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAU 33% | Draw 27% | Bordeaux 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG PAU 1.16 / Bordeaux 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: PAU attack 1.038 / def 1.162 | Bordeaux attack 0.918 / def 0.911 | league avg home 1.222 / away 1.211 • Poisson stance: Bordeaux (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
PAU xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Bordeaux xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAU vs Bordeaux kick off?
PAU vs Bordeaux kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 7 August 2023 at Stade Nouste Camp.
What was the final score in PAU vs Bordeaux?
PAU 3 - 0 Bordeaux.
Where is PAU vs Bordeaux being played?
The match is being played at Stade Nouste Camp.
What competition is PAU vs Bordeaux part of?
PAU vs Bordeaux is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win PAU vs Bordeaux?
Our statistical model gives PAU a 33% chance of winning, Bordeaux a 40% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Bordeaux the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAU vs Bordeaux?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both PAU and Bordeaux will score (BTTS).
Will PAU vs Bordeaux have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and Bordeaux?
Record (2 meetings): PAU 0W | Draws 1 | Bordeaux 1W.
What form are PAU and Bordeaux in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. PAU (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
PAU's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Bordeaux's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.16. The same calculation in reverse, Bordeaux's attack versus PAU's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (38/37 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 0-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bordeaux Win
33%
3.02
27%
3.67
40%
2.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
PAU xG
Total xG
2.45
1.29
Bordeaux xG
3.02
33%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
2.52
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
27%
3.64
31%
3.18
Win to Nil
9%
10.99
12%
8.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 11.2 | 7.2 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.9 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.5 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAU vs Bordeaux?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are PAU and Bordeaux expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for PAU and 1.29 for Bordeaux, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for PAU vs Bordeaux?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 37 outings, PAU have picked up 1.27 PPG on a 12W 11D 14L record — L-D-L-W-W across the most recent five. PAU haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Bordeaux's form line: 20W 9D 8L from 37 games, 1.86 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-L. Bordeaux haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Put side by side, Bordeaux are the form team by 0.59 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against PAU.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, PAU have posted 1.26 PPG from 19 outings (6W 6D 7L).
On the road, Bordeaux have gone 8W 5D 6L from 19 away games — 1.53 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
PAU are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Bordeaux are on 1.38 scored and 0.73 conceded.
Defensively: Bordeaux in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAU
Pre-Season
Bordeaux
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAU and Bordeaux in coming into this match?
PAU have gone 12W 11D 14L in their last 37 games (1.27 PPG), while Bordeaux have gone 20W 9D 8L in their last 37 (1.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAU at home or Bordeaux away?
Bordeaux's away record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAU at home: 1.26 PPG; Bordeaux away: 1.53 PPG.
Have PAU or Bordeaux been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAU have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Bordeaux in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between PAU and Bordeaux runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Aug 2023, when PAU won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
PAU's record when hosting Bordeaux specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
PAU
1
Draws
2
Bordeaux
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and Bordeaux?
From 4 meetings on record, PAU have won 1, Bordeaux have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did PAU and Bordeaux last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2024, when Bordeaux 3-2 PAU.
Who has won more matches between PAU and Bordeaux?
Bordeaux have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
PAU are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Bordeaux are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAU 42%, Bordeaux 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (PAU) and 42% (Bordeaux).
On the defensive side: PAU keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Bordeaux in 37%; PAU have failed to score in 37% of games; Bordeaux in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAU home games / Bordeaux away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAU play Bordeaux?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of PAU's recent matches and 37% of Bordeaux's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAU vs Bordeaux usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of PAU's recent games and 42% of Bordeaux's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAU and Bordeaux tend to score early?
PAU have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Bordeaux in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant PAU run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Bordeaux.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAU beat Bordeaux 3-0 at Stade Nouste Camp, Regular Season - 1, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAU 1.16 xG and Bordeaux 1.29 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. PAU beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bordeaux landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAU attack 1.04 / defence 1.16 against Bordeaux attack 0.92 / defence 0.91, drawn from 38/37 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it PAU 33% | Draw 27% | Bordeaux 40%, with Bordeaux to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual PAU win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAU 35%, Bordeaux 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAU's trading profile (37 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.
Bordeaux's trading profile (37 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Bordeaux arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.27. Form was overturned, with PAU winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. PAU (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line. Bordeaux (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.