PAU 2-2 Bastia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bastia at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this PAU vs Bastia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bastia make the trip to Nouste Camp to face PAU in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 26. The match kicks off on Friday 6 March 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
PAU have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W W L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for PAU, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PAU's home record at Nouste Camp: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Bastia's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D D D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Bastia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Bastia have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for PAU, 1.10 for Bastia — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — PAU lead 2W to 3W over the last 9 encounters, with 4 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 9 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Aug 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
PAU goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Bastia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 34% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 21% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAU 53% versus Bastia 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAU 55% | Bastia 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAU 0.99 xG and Bastia 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAU attack 1.035 / defence 1.464 | Bastia attack 0.784 / defence 0.878. League average goals — home 1.088 / away 1.173. Data: 59 PAU games / 58 Bastia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAU 26% | Draw 30% | Bastia 44%. Fair-value odds: PAU 3.85 | Draw 3.33 | Bastia 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bastia are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bastia if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.33 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: PAU 70% | Bastia 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAU vs Bastia | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Nouste Camp • Kick-off: Friday 6 Mar 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAU 26% | Draw 30% | Bastia 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 48% | xG PAU 0.99 / Bastia 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: PAU attack 1.035 / def 1.464 | Bastia attack 0.784 / def 0.878 | league avg home 1.088 / away 1.173 • Poisson stance: Bastia (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
PAU xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Bastia xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAU vs Bastia kick off?
PAU vs Bastia kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 6 March 2026 at Nouste Camp.
What was the final score in PAU vs Bastia?
PAU 2 - 2 Bastia.
Where is PAU vs Bastia being played?
The match is being played at Nouste Camp.
What competition is PAU vs Bastia part of?
PAU vs Bastia is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win PAU vs Bastia?
Our statistical model gives PAU a 26% chance of winning, Bastia a 44% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Bastia the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAU vs Bastia?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both PAU and Bastia will score (BTTS).
Will PAU vs Bastia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and Bastia?
Record (9 meetings): PAU 2W | Draws 4 | Bastia 3W.
What form are PAU and Bastia in?
PAU (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. Bastia (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates PAU's attack at 1.03x the league average against Bastia's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 0.99 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bastia's attack (0.78x) against PAU's defence (1.46x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
These ratings are built from 59/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.4%), 0-1 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bastia Win
26%
3.81
30%
3.32
44%
2.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
9.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
PAU xG
Total xG
2.33
1.35
Bastia xG
3.81
26%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
2.29
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
26%
3.84
37%
2.69
Win to Nil
7%
14.65
16%
6.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 13.0 | 8.8 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.9 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 6.4 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAU vs Bastia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are PAU and Bastia expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for PAU and 1.35 for Bastia, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for PAU vs Bastia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
PAU come into this having played 58 games, going 19W 18D 21L for 1.29 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-L. The sample for PAU is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Bastia sit at 1.14 PPG from 58 outings (14W 24D 20L), a run that reads D-D-D-D-L across their last five. The sample for Bastia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.29 PPG for PAU against 1.14 for Bastia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
PAU's home form reads 11W 8D 10L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.41 PPG return.
Away from home, Bastia have taken 0.76 points per game from 29 outings (3W 13D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PAU come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
PAU are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Bastia are on 0.95 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Defensively: Bastia in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAU
Blended
Bastia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAU and Bastia in coming into this match?
PAU have gone 19W 18D 21L in their last 58 games (1.29 PPG), while Bastia have gone 14W 24D 20L in their last 58 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAU at home or Bastia away?
PAU's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAU at home: 1.41 PPG; Bastia away: 0.76 PPG.
Have PAU or Bastia been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAU have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Bastia in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 6 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 4 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bastia won 2-6 on 20 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PAU have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bastia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
PAU
5
Draws
3
Bastia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and Bastia?
From 10 meetings on record, PAU have won 2, Bastia have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did PAU and Bastia last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2026, when PAU 2-2 Bastia.
Who has won more matches between PAU and Bastia?
Bastia have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
PAU are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Bastia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAU 48%, Bastia 34% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (PAU) and 21% (Bastia).
On the defensive side: PAU keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Bastia in 55%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAU home games / Bastia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAU play Bastia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of PAU's recent matches and 34% of Bastia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAU vs Bastia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of PAU's recent games and 21% of Bastia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAU and Bastia tend to score early?
PAU have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Bastia in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
PAU and Bastia share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAU and Bastia finished level at 2-2 at Nouste Camp, Regular Season - 26, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAU 0.99 xG and Bastia 1.35 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. PAU beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAU attack 1.03 / defence 1.46 against Bastia attack 0.78 / defence 0.88, drawn from 59/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAU 26% | Draw 30% | Bastia 44%, with Bastia to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAU 55%, Bastia 29%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAU's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Bastia's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PAU 1.29 PPG, Bastia 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Bastia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.66 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.