Paris FC 2-1 Quevilly – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Paris FC at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Paris FC vs Quevilly fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Paris FC host Quevilly at Stade Charléty in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 6 August 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Paris FC have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: D W W L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Paris FC have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stade Charléty, Paris FC have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Charléty. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Paris FC are significantly better at Stade Charléty than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Quevilly stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Quevilly have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Quevilly have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Paris FC at 1.50 PPG versus Quevilly's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Paris FC, 0 for Quevilly and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Feb 2022, ended 3–0 with Paris FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Paris FC in-play and half-time data (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games).
Quevilly in-play and half-time data (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Paris FC 50% versus Quevilly 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Paris FC 40% | Quevilly 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Paris FC 1.39 xG and Quevilly 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Paris FC attack 1.151 / defence 0.917 | Quevilly attack 0.925 / defence 1.056. League average goals — home 1.145 / away 0.981. Data: 39 Paris FC games / 39 Quevilly games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Paris FC 48% | Draw 32% | Quevilly 20%. Fair-value odds: Paris FC 2.08 | Draw 3.12 | Quevilly 5.00. Paris FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Paris FC are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Paris FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.22 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Paris FC 50% | Quevilly 20% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (39 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Paris FC vs Quevilly | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stade Charléty • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Aug 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Paris FC 48% | Draw 32% | Quevilly 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG Paris FC 1.39 / Quevilly 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Paris FC attack 1.151 / def 0.917 | Quevilly attack 0.925 / def 1.056 | league avg home 1.145 / away 0.981 • Poisson stance: Paris FC (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Paris FC xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Quevilly xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Paris FC vs Quevilly kick off?
Paris FC vs Quevilly kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 6 August 2022 at Stade Charléty.
What was the final score in Paris FC vs Quevilly?
Paris FC 2 - 1 Quevilly.
Where is Paris FC vs Quevilly being played?
The match is being played at Stade Charléty.
What competition is Paris FC vs Quevilly part of?
Paris FC vs Quevilly is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Paris FC vs Quevilly?
Our statistical model gives Paris FC a 48% chance of winning, Quevilly a 20% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Paris FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Paris FC vs Quevilly?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Paris FC and Quevilly will score (BTTS).
Will Paris FC vs Quevilly have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Paris FC and Quevilly?
Record (2 meetings): Paris FC 2W | Draws 0 | Quevilly 0W.
What form are Paris FC and Quevilly in?
Paris FC (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-L-D. Quevilly (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Paris FC's attack rating (1.15) and Quevilly's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.39 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Quevilly's attack versus Paris FC's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (39/39 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.4%), 0-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Paris FC Win
48%
2.09
32%
3.15
20%
4.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 0
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Paris FC xG
Total xG
2.22
0.83
Quevilly xG
2.09
48%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
4.92
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
43%
2.30
25%
4.02
Win to Nil
21%
4.80
5%
19.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 9.0 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.0 | 12.5 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 8.7 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Paris FC vs Quevilly?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Paris FC and Quevilly expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Paris FC and 0.83 for Quevilly, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Paris FC vs Quevilly?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Paris FC come into this having played 40 games, going 20W 11D 9L for 1.78 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-L-D. It's still early in the season for Paris FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Quevilly sit at 1.15 PPG from 40 outings (12W 10D 18L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Quevilly, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Paris FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.63 PPG clear of Quevilly — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Paris FC's home form reads 10W 7D 2L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.95 PPG return.
Away from home, Quevilly have taken 1.05 points per game from 19 outings (6W 2D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Paris FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Paris FC are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; Quevilly are on 0.92 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Defensively: Paris FC have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Paris FC
Early Season
Quevilly
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Paris FC and Quevilly in coming into this match?
Paris FC have gone 20W 11D 9L in their last 40 games (1.78 PPG), while Quevilly have gone 12W 10D 18L in their last 40 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Paris FC at home or Quevilly away?
Paris FC's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Paris FC at home: 1.95 PPG; Quevilly away: 1.05 PPG.
Have Paris FC or Quevilly been keeping clean sheets recently?
Paris FC have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Quevilly in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Paris FC and Quevilly runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Feb 2022, when Paris FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Paris FC's record when hosting Quevilly specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Paris FC
2
Draws
1
Quevilly
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Paris FC and Quevilly?
From 6 meetings on record, Paris FC have won 3, Quevilly have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Paris FC and Quevilly last play each other?
They last met on 24 February 2024, when Quevilly 0-0 Paris FC.
Who has won more matches between Paris FC and Quevilly?
Paris FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Paris FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Quevilly are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Paris FC 47%, Quevilly 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Paris FC) and 47% (Quevilly).
On the defensive side: Paris FC keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Quevilly in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Paris FC home games / Quevilly away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Paris FC play Quevilly?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Paris FC's recent matches and 37% of Quevilly's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Paris FC vs Quevilly usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Paris FC's recent games and 47% of Quevilly's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Paris FC and Quevilly tend to score early?
Paris FC have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Quevilly in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Paris FC edge out Quevilly 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Paris FC beat Quevilly 2-1 at Stade Charléty, Regular Season - 2, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Paris FC 1.39 xG and Quevilly 0.83 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Paris FC attack 1.15 / defence 0.92 against Quevilly attack 0.93 / defence 1.06, drawn from 39/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Paris FC 48% | Draw 32% | Quevilly 20%, with Paris FC to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Paris FC 40%, Quevilly 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Paris FC's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Quevilly's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Paris FC arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.15. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.