Paris FC 1-1 PAU – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Paris FC at 61%, yet other data sources diverge — this Paris FC vs PAU fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 30 as Paris FC welcome PAU to Stade Charléty. Kick-off is set for Saturday 19 March 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Paris FC — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: D W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Paris FC's form when playing at home: 7W 3D 0L across 10 games at Stade Charléty this term (2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Charléty. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Paris FC are significantly better at Stade Charléty than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, PAU stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
PAU's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Paris FC carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 1.40. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Paris FC, 1 for PAU and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 16 Oct 2021, ended 0–1 with PAU winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Paris FC in-play tendencies (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
PAU in-play tendencies (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Paris FC 45% versus PAU 38%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Paris FC 38% | PAU 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Paris FC 1.56 xG and PAU 0.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Paris FC attack 1.306 / defence 0.923 | PAU attack 0.691 / defence 1.195. League average goals — home 1.002 / away 0.912. Paris FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.306 — their λ of 1.56 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 29 Paris FC games / 29 PAU games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Paris FC 61% | Draw 26% | PAU 13%. Fair-value odds: Paris FC 1.64 | Draw 3.85 | PAU 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Paris FC (61%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — PAU's lower xG of 0.58 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Paris FC at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.15 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 35% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Paris FC 40% | PAU 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Paris FC vs PAU | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stade Charléty • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Mar 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Paris FC 61% | Draw 26% | PAU 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 35% | xG Paris FC 1.56 / PAU 0.58 • Poisson strength factors: Paris FC attack 1.306 / def 0.923 | PAU attack 0.691 / def 1.195 | league avg home 1.002 / away 0.912 • Poisson stance: Paris FC (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Paris FC xG
Expected Goals
0.58
PAU xG
35%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Paris FC vs PAU kick off?
Paris FC vs PAU kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 19 March 2022 at Stade Charléty.
What was the final score in Paris FC vs PAU?
Paris FC 1 - 1 PAU.
Where is Paris FC vs PAU being played?
The match is being played at Stade Charléty.
What competition is Paris FC vs PAU part of?
Paris FC vs PAU is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Paris FC vs PAU?
Our statistical model gives Paris FC a 61% chance of winning, PAU a 13% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Paris FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Paris FC vs PAU?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Paris FC and PAU will score (BTTS).
Will Paris FC vs PAU have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Paris FC and PAU?
Record (1 meetings): Paris FC 0W | Draws 0 | PAU 1W.
What form are Paris FC and PAU in?
Paris FC (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-W-L. PAU (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Paris FC's attacking strength (1.31x league average) is weighed against PAU's defensive record (1.20x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.56. The same calculation in reverse, PAU's attack versus Paris FC's defence, projects 0.58 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 16.9%. Close behind: 2-0 (14.3%), 0-0 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Paris FC Win
61%
1.64
26%
3.90
13%
7.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
14.3%
Home win
0 – 0
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Paris FC xG
Total xG
2.15
0.58
PAU xG
1.64
61%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
7.53
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.84
65%
BTTS No
1.54
Clean Sheet
56%
1.79
21%
4.78
Win to Nil
34%
2.93
3%
36.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 6.8 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.3 | 10.6 | 3.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.3 | 8.3 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.5 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Paris FC vs PAU?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.9%.
How many goals are Paris FC and PAU expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Paris FC and 0.58 for PAU, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Paris FC vs PAU?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 29 outings, Paris FC have picked up 1.90 PPG on a 16W 7D 6L record — D-W-D-W-L across the most recent five.
PAU's form line: 11W 5D 13L from 29 games, 1.31 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-L.
Put side by side, Paris FC are the form team by 0.59 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against PAU.
Venue Form
On home soil, Paris FC have posted 2.21 PPG from 14 outings (9W 4D 1L).
On the road, PAU have gone 2W 4D 8L from 14 away games — 0.71 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.31 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of PAU's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Paris FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Paris FC are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game recently; PAU are on 1.00 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Defensively: Paris FC have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 29 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Paris FC
Current Season
PAU
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Paris FC and PAU in coming into this match?
Paris FC have gone 16W 7D 6L in their last 29 games (1.90 PPG), while PAU have gone 11W 5D 13L in their last 29 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Paris FC at home or PAU away?
Paris FC's home record (2.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Paris FC at home: 2.21 PPG; PAU away: 0.71 PPG.
Have Paris FC or PAU been keeping clean sheets recently?
Paris FC have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, PAU in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Paris FC's record when hosting PAU specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Paris FC
3
Draws
3
PAU
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Paris FC and PAU?
From 8 meetings on record, Paris FC have won 2, PAU have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Paris FC and PAU last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2025, when Paris FC 3-1 PAU.
Who has won more matches between Paris FC and PAU?
PAU have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Paris FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
PAU see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Paris FC 43%, PAU 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Paris FC) and 36% (PAU).
On the defensive side: Paris FC keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; PAU in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Paris FC home games / PAU away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Paris FC play PAU?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Paris FC's recent matches and 43% of PAU's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Paris FC vs PAU usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Paris FC's recent games and 36% of PAU's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Paris FC and PAU tend to score early?
Paris FC have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, PAU in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Paris FC and PAU share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Charléty, Regular Season - 30, as Paris FC and PAU drew 1-1 in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Paris FC 1.56 xG and PAU 0.58 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Paris FC attack 1.31 / defence 0.92 against PAU attack 0.69 / defence 1.20, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Paris FC 61% | Draw 26% | PAU 13%, with Paris FC to win its most likely call at 61%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Paris FC 38%, PAU 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Paris FC's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
PAU's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Paris FC arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 1.31. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.