Paris FC 1-0 Caen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Paris FC at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Paris FC vs Caen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Charléty plays host to Paris FC versus Caen in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off: Tuesday 19 April 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Paris FC's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L D L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Stade Charléty, Paris FC have gone 7W 3D 0L this season (10 games, 2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Charléty. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Paris FC are significantly better at Stade Charléty than their overall form suggests.
Caen (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: D W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Caen away from home this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 2.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Paris FC 1W, Caen 0W, 0D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 20 Nov 2021, ended 1–0 with Paris FC winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Paris FC half-time and goal-timing data (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Caen half-time and goal-timing data (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Paris FC 48% versus Caen 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Paris FC 39% | Caen 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Paris FC 1.56 xG and Caen 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Paris FC attack 1.319 / defence 1.033 | Caen attack 1.036 / defence 1.270. League average goals — home 0.934 / away 1.036. Paris FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.319 — their λ of 1.56 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Caen bring a strong defensive rating of 1.270 — this is suppressing Paris FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 33 Paris FC games / 33 Caen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Paris FC 47% | Draw 27% | Caen 26%. Fair-value odds: Paris FC 2.13 | Draw 3.70 | Caen 3.85. Paris FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Paris FC as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Paris FC if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.67 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Paris FC 40% | Caen 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Paris FC vs Caen | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stade Charléty • Kick-off: Tuesday 19 Apr 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Paris FC 47% | Draw 27% | Caen 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Paris FC 1.56 / Caen 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Paris FC attack 1.319 / def 1.033 | Caen attack 1.036 / def 1.270 | league avg home 0.934 / away 1.036 • Poisson stance: Paris FC (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Paris FC xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Caen xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Paris FC vs Caen kick off?
Paris FC vs Caen kicked off at 19:00 on Tuesday 19 April 2022 at Stade Charléty.
What was the final score in Paris FC vs Caen?
Paris FC 1 - 0 Caen.
Where is Paris FC vs Caen being played?
The match is being played at Stade Charléty.
What competition is Paris FC vs Caen part of?
Paris FC vs Caen is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Paris FC vs Caen?
Our statistical model gives Paris FC a 47% chance of winning, Caen a 26% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Paris FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Paris FC vs Caen?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Paris FC and Caen will score (BTTS).
Will Paris FC vs Caen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Paris FC and Caen?
Record (1 meetings): Paris FC 1W | Draws 0 | Caen 0W.
What form are Paris FC and Caen in?
Paris FC (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-L-D-W. Caen (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Paris FC's attack rating (1.32) and Caen's defence rating (1.27), the model arrives at 1.56 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Caen's attack (1.04x) against Paris FC's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Paris FC Win
47%
2.12
27%
3.76
26%
3.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Paris FC xG
Total xG
2.67
1.11
Caen xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
3.81
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
21%
4.78
Win to Nil
16%
6.43
5%
18.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 7.6 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 12.0 | 6.6 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.4 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Paris FC vs Caen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Paris FC and Caen expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Paris FC and 1.11 for Caen, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Paris FC vs Caen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 33 outings, Paris FC have picked up 1.82 PPG on a 17W 9D 7L record — L-D-L-D-W across the most recent five.
Caen's form line: 12W 10D 11L from 33 games, 1.39 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-D.
Put side by side, Paris FC are the form team by 0.43 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Caen.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Paris FC have posted 2.06 PPG from 16 outings (9W 6D 1L).
On the road, Caen have gone 4W 8D 4L from 16 away games — 1.25 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Paris FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Paris FC are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; Caen are on 1.42 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Defensively: Paris FC have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 33 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Paris FC
Current Season
Caen
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Paris FC and Caen in coming into this match?
Paris FC have gone 17W 9D 7L in their last 33 games (1.82 PPG), while Caen have gone 12W 10D 11L in their last 33 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Paris FC at home or Caen away?
Paris FC's home record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Paris FC at home: 2.06 PPG; Caen away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Paris FC or Caen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Paris FC have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Caen in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Paris FC go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Paris FC have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Caen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Paris FC
1
Draws
2
Caen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Paris FC and Caen?
From 8 meetings on record, Paris FC have won 5, Caen have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Paris FC and Caen last play each other?
They last met on 31 March 2025, when Paris FC 4-2 Caen.
Who has won more matches between Paris FC and Caen?
Paris FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Paris FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Caen see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Paris FC 50%, Caen 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 38% for Paris FC and 31% for Caen.
On the defensive side: Paris FC keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Caen in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Paris FC home games / Caen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Paris FC play Caen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Paris FC's recent matches and 56% of Caen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Paris FC vs Caen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Paris FC's recent games and 31% of Caen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Paris FC and Caen tend to score early?
Paris FC have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Caen in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Paris FC edge out Caen 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Paris FC beat Caen 1-0 at Stade Charléty, Regular Season - 34, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Paris FC 1.56 xG and Caen 1.11 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Caen landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Paris FC attack 1.32 / defence 1.03 against Caen attack 1.04 / defence 1.27, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Paris FC 47% | Draw 27% | Caen 26%, with Paris FC to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Paris FC 39%, Caen 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Paris FC's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Caen's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Paris FC arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.39. Form held, and they took the win. Caen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.