Nimes 1-2 Dijon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nimes at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nimes vs Dijon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Nimes host Dijon at Stade des Costières in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 36. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 20 May 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Nimes stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Nimes have posted 4W 1D 5L at Stade des Costières — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Dijon — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Dijon's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Dijon — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.50 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Nimes register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Dijon in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Nimes have won 2, Dijon 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 20 Aug 2022, ended 1–2 with Dijon winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Nimes in-play tendencies (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Dijon in-play tendencies (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nimes 51% versus Dijon 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nimes 52% | Dijon 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nimes 1.70 xG and Dijon 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nimes attack 1.243 / defence 1.260 | Dijon attack 0.964 / defence 1.046. League average goals — home 1.306 / away 1.077. Data: 73 Nimes games / 73 Dijon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nimes 46% | Draw 24% | Dijon 29%. Fair-value odds: Nimes 2.17 | Draw 4.17 | Dijon 3.45. Nimes hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.70 / 1.31) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Nimes as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Dijon (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nimes offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.01 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Nimes 60% | Dijon 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nimes vs Dijon | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Stade des Costières • Kick-off: Saturday 20 May 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nimes 46% | Draw 24% | Dijon 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 60% | xG Nimes 1.70 / Dijon 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Nimes attack 1.243 / def 1.260 | Dijon attack 0.964 / def 1.046 | league avg home 1.306 / away 1.077 • Poisson stance: Nimes (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Nimes xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Dijon xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nimes vs Dijon kick off?
Nimes vs Dijon kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 20 May 2023 at Stade des Costières.
What was the final score in Nimes vs Dijon?
Nimes 1 - 2 Dijon.
Where is Nimes vs Dijon being played?
The match is being played at Stade des Costières.
What competition is Nimes vs Dijon part of?
Nimes vs Dijon is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Nimes vs Dijon?
Our statistical model gives Nimes a 46% chance of winning, Dijon a 29% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Nimes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nimes vs Dijon?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Nimes and Dijon will score (BTTS).
Will Nimes vs Dijon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nimes and Dijon?
Record (3 meetings): Nimes 2W | Draws 0 | Dijon 1W.
What form are Nimes and Dijon in?
Nimes (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-W-D-L. Dijon (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Nimes's attacking strength (1.24x league average) is weighed against Dijon's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.70. The same calculation in reverse, Dijon's attack versus Nimes's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 73/73 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Nimes Win
46%
2.16
24%
4.11
29%
3.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Nimes xG
Total xG
3.01
1.31
Dijon xG
2.16
46%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
3.41
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
27%
3.70
18%
5.46
Win to Nil
13%
7.99
5%
18.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 6.5 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 11.0 | 7.2 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.3 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.3 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nimes vs Dijon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Nimes and Dijon expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Nimes and 1.31 for Dijon, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Nimes vs Dijon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Nimes's recent record stands at 23W 13D 37L from 73 games, a 1.12 PPG return, with L-L-W-D-L in the last five.
Dijon, meanwhile, have gone 22W 19D 32L across 73 games — 1.16 PPG, with D-D-W-D-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Nimes on 1.12 PPG, Dijon on 1.16. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Nimes have managed 14W 6D 16L from 36 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dijon's away record stands at 7W 10D 19L across 36 trips, a 0.86 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nimes come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Nimes are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Dijon are on 1.14 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 73 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nimes
Current Season
Dijon
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nimes and Dijon in coming into this match?
Nimes have gone 23W 13D 37L in their last 73 games (1.12 PPG), while Dijon have gone 22W 19D 32L in their last 73 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nimes at home or Dijon away?
Nimes's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nimes at home: 1.33 PPG; Dijon away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Nimes and Dijon runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Dijon go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Nimes's record when hosting Dijon specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Nimes
0
Draws
2
Dijon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nimes and Dijon?
From 4 meetings on record, Nimes have won 2, Dijon have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Nimes and Dijon last play each other?
They last met on 20 May 2023, when Nimes 1-2 Dijon.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Nimes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Dijon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nimes 50%, Dijon 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Nimes) and 56% (Dijon).
On the defensive side: Nimes have failed to score in 33% of games; Dijon in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nimes home games / Dijon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nimes play Dijon?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Nimes's recent matches and 58% of Dijon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nimes vs Dijon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Nimes's recent games and 56% of Dijon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nimes and Dijon tend to score early?
Nimes have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Dijon in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Dijon defy the odds to beat Nimes 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dijon beat Nimes 1-2 at Stade des Costières, Regular Season - 36, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nimes 1.70 xG and Dijon 1.31 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nimes attack 1.24 / defence 1.26 against Dijon attack 0.96 / defence 1.05, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nimes 46% | Draw 24% | Dijon 29%, with Nimes to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Dijon win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nimes 52%, Dijon 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nimes's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Dijon's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nimes 1.12 PPG, Dijon 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dijon win broke the near-deadlock. Dijon (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.