Nancy 1-2 Reims – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Reims at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nancy vs Reims fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Nancy host Reims at Stade Marcel Picot in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 11 September 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Nancy — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: D L W W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Nancy have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Nancy's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at Stade Marcel Picot this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Reims stand at 4W 6D 0L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D D W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Reims have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Reims have posted 3W 6D 1L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Nancy at 1.50 PPG versus Reims's 1.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Nancy have won 0, Reims 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 25 Apr 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Nancy in-play tendencies (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Reims in-play tendencies (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nancy 46% versus Reims 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nancy 46% | Reims 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nancy 1.02 xG and Reims 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nancy attack 0.940 / defence 0.949 | Reims attack 1.189 / defence 0.854. League average goals — home 1.266 / away 1.249. Data: 39 Nancy games / 39 Reims games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nancy 25% | Draw 31% | Reims 44%. Fair-value odds: Nancy 4.00 | Draw 3.23 | Reims 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Reims at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Reims offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.42 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Nancy 60% | Reims 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nancy vs Reims | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stade Marcel Picot • Kick-off: Friday 11 Sep 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nancy 25% | Draw 31% | Reims 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Nancy 1.02 / Reims 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Nancy attack 0.940 / def 0.949 | Reims attack 1.189 / def 0.854 | league avg home 1.266 / away 1.249 • Poisson stance: Reims (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Nancy xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Reims xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nancy vs Reims kick off?
Nancy vs Reims kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 11 September 2026 at Stade Marcel Picot.
What was the final score in Nancy vs Reims?
Nancy 1 - 2 Reims.
Where is Nancy vs Reims being played?
The match is being played at Stade Marcel Picot.
What competition is Nancy vs Reims part of?
Nancy vs Reims is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Nancy vs Reims?
Our statistical model gives Nancy a 25% chance of winning, Reims a 44% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Reims the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nancy vs Reims?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Nancy and Reims will score (BTTS).
Will Nancy vs Reims have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nancy and Reims?
Record (2 meetings): Nancy 0W | Draws 1 | Reims 1W.
What form are Nancy and Reims in?
Nancy (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-W-L. Reims (all comps): 4W-6D-0L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Nancy's attack rating (0.94) and Reims's defence rating (0.85), the model arrives at 1.02 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Reims's attack versus Nancy's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.8%), 0-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Reims Win
25%
3.97
31%
3.25
44%
2.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.5%
Away win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Nancy xG
Total xG
2.42
1.41
Reims xG
3.97
25%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
2.27
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
24%
4.09
36%
2.76
Win to Nil
6%
16.25
16%
6.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 12.5 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.7 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 6.4 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nancy vs Reims?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Nancy and Reims expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Nancy and 1.41 for Reims, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Nancy vs Reims?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Nancy come into this having played 39 games, going 11W 11D 17L for 1.13 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-W-L. It's still early in the season for Nancy, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Reims sit at 1.67 PPG from 39 outings (16W 17D 6L), a run that reads D-D-W-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Reims, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Reims carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.54 PPG clear of Nancy — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Nancy's home form reads 6W 3D 10L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.11 PPG return.
Away from home, Reims have taken 1.47 points per game from 19 outings (6W 10D 3L).
Goals in Recent Form
Nancy are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Reims are on 1.67 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Defensively: Reims in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nancy
Early Season
Reims
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nancy and Reims in coming into this match?
Nancy have gone 11W 11D 17L in their last 39 games (1.13 PPG), while Reims have gone 16W 17D 6L in their last 39 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nancy at home or Reims away?
Reims's away record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nancy at home: 1.11 PPG; Reims away: 1.47 PPG.
Have Nancy or Reims been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nancy have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Reims in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. The two were last together as recently as 11 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Nancy's record when hosting Reims specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Nancy
1
Draws
2
Reims
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nancy and Reims?
From 3 meetings on record, Nancy have won 0, Reims have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Nancy and Reims last play each other?
They last met on 11 September 2026, when Nancy 1-2 Reims.
Who has won more matches between Nancy and Reims?
Reims have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Nancy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Reims are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nancy 37%, Reims 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Nancy) and 42% (Reims).
On the defensive side: Reims in 37%; Nancy have failed to score in 42% of games; Reims in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nancy home games / Reims away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nancy play Reims?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Nancy's recent matches and 58% of Reims's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nancy vs Reims usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Nancy's recent games and 42% of Reims's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nancy and Reims tend to score early?
Nancy have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Reims in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Reims edge out Nancy 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Reims beat Nancy 1-2 at Stade Marcel Picot, Regular Season - 6, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nancy 1.02 xG and Reims 1.41 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nancy attack 0.94 / defence 0.95 against Reims attack 1.19 / defence 0.85, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nancy 25% | Draw 31% | Reims 44%, with Reims to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nancy 46%, Reims 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nancy's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Reims's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Reims arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.13. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.