Nancy 1-0 Guingamp – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Nancy at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Nancy vs Guingamp encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Guingamp make the trip to Stade Marcel-Picot to face Nancy in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 8. The match kicks off on Friday 9 October 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Nancy's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Nancy have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Nancy's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at Stade Marcel-Picot this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 1.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stade Marcel-Picot this season.
Guingamp have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Guingamp have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Guingamp have gone 0W 4D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Nancy. A 0.90 PPG lead over Guingamp (1.70 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Nancy have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Guingamp in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Nancy 1W, Guingamp 2W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 19 Jan 2026, ended 0–3 with Guingamp winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Nancy — key trading statistics (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Guingamp — key trading statistics (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nancy 49% versus Guingamp 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nancy 49% | Guingamp 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nancy 1.33 xG and Guingamp 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nancy attack 0.941 / defence 1.025 | Guingamp attack 0.926 / defence 1.106. League average goals — home 1.276 / away 1.246. Data: 41 Nancy games / 41 Guingamp games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nancy 39% | Draw 29% | Guingamp 32%. Fair-value odds: Nancy 2.56 | Draw 3.45 | Guingamp 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Nancy are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Nancy if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.51 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Nancy 60% | Guingamp 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nancy vs Guingamp | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stade Marcel-Picot • Kick-off: Friday 9 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nancy 39% | Draw 29% | Guingamp 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 52% | xG Nancy 1.33 / Guingamp 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Nancy attack 0.941 / def 1.025 | Guingamp attack 0.926 / def 1.106 | league avg home 1.276 / away 1.246 • Poisson stance: Nancy (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Nancy xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Guingamp xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nancy vs Guingamp kick off?
Nancy vs Guingamp kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 9 October 2026 at Stade Marcel-Picot.
What was the final score in Nancy vs Guingamp?
Nancy 1 - 0 Guingamp.
Where is Nancy vs Guingamp being played?
The match is being played at Stade Marcel-Picot.
What competition is Nancy vs Guingamp part of?
Nancy vs Guingamp is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Nancy vs Guingamp?
Our statistical model gives Nancy a 39% chance of winning, Guingamp a 32% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Nancy the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nancy vs Guingamp?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Nancy and Guingamp will score (BTTS).
Will Nancy vs Guingamp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nancy and Guingamp?
Record (4 meetings): Nancy 1W | Draws 1 | Guingamp 2W.
What form are Nancy and Guingamp in?
Nancy (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. Guingamp (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Nancy's attack at 0.94x the league average against Guingamp's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.33 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Guingamp's attack (0.93x) against Nancy's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.8%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nancy Win
39%
2.56
29%
3.48
32%
3.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Nancy xG
Total xG
2.51
1.18
Guingamp xG
2.56
39%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
3.11
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
31%
3.26
27%
3.77
Win to Nil
12%
8.34
9%
11.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 9.6 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 12.8 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.5 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nancy vs Guingamp?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Nancy and Guingamp expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Nancy and 1.18 for Guingamp, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Nancy vs Guingamp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Nancy come into this having played 41 games, going 12W 11D 18L for 1.15 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for Nancy, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Guingamp sit at 1.17 PPG from 41 outings (12W 12D 17L), a run that reads L-D-D-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Guingamp, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.15 PPG for Nancy against 1.17 for Guingamp. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Nancy's home form reads 6W 3D 11L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.05 PPG return.
Away from home, Guingamp have taken 0.90 points per game from 20 outings (4W 6D 10L).
Attack vs Defence
Nancy are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Guingamp are on 1.27 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Last 41 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nancy
Early Season
Guingamp
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nancy and Guingamp in coming into this match?
Nancy have gone 12W 11D 18L in their last 41 games (1.15 PPG), while Guingamp have gone 12W 12D 17L in their last 41 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nancy at home or Guingamp away?
Nancy's home record (1.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nancy at home: 1.05 PPG; Guingamp away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. The two were last together as recently as 9 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Guingamp won 0-3 on 19 Jan 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nancy have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Guingamp — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Nancy
1
Draws
2
Guingamp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nancy and Guingamp?
From 5 meetings on record, Nancy have won 2, Guingamp have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Nancy and Guingamp last play each other?
They last met on 9 October 2026, when Nancy 1-0 Guingamp.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Nancy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nancy 40%, Guingamp 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Nancy) and 65% (Guingamp). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Nancy have failed to score in 40% of games; Guingamp in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nancy home games / Guingamp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nancy play Guingamp?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Nancy's recent matches and 65% of Guingamp's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nancy vs Guingamp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 45% of Nancy's matches and 65% of Guingamp's.
Do Nancy and Guingamp tend to score early?
Nancy have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Guingamp in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Nancy edge out Guingamp 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nancy beat Guingamp 1-0 at Stade Marcel-Picot, Regular Season - 8, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nancy 1.33 xG and Guingamp 1.18 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Guingamp landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nancy attack 0.94 / defence 1.02 against Guingamp attack 0.93 / defence 1.11, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nancy 39% | Draw 29% | Guingamp 32%, with Nancy to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nancy 49%, Guingamp 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nancy's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.
Guingamp's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nancy 1.15 PPG, Guingamp 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nancy win broke the near-deadlock. Nancy (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line. Guingamp (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.