Nancy vs Dijon – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nancy at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nancy vs Dijon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 13 as Nancy welcome Dijon to Stade Marcel Picot. Kick-off is set for Friday 20 November 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Nancy stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Nancy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Nancy have posted 3W 2D 5L at Stade Marcel Picot — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 1.90 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stade Marcel Picot this season.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Dijon have recorded 3W 3D 3L from 9 outings — 1.33 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. They are scoring at 1.78 per game and conceding 1.78. Both teams have scored in 89% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Dijon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dijon's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 1L across 5 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Nancy carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.57 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 1.33. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Nancy, 1 for Dijon and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 7 May 2022, ended 3–2 with Nancy winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Nancy trading profile (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Dijon trading profile (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Nancy 33% and Dijon 89% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nancy 33% | Dijon 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nancy 1.53 xG and Dijon 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nancy attack 0.907 / defence 0.908 | Dijon attack 0.996 / defence 1.233. League average goals — home 1.365 / away 1.317. Dijon bring a strong defensive rating of 1.233 — this is suppressing Nancy's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 43 Nancy games / 9 Dijon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nancy 44% | Draw 26% | Dijon 29%. Fair-value odds: Nancy 2.27 | Draw 3.85 | Dijon 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Nancy are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nancy offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.72 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Nancy 50% | Dijon 100% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nancy vs Dijon | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stade Marcel Picot • Kick-off: Friday 20 Nov 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nancy 44% | Draw 26% | Dijon 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Nancy 1.53 / Dijon 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Nancy attack 0.907 / def 0.908 | Dijon attack 0.996 / def 1.233 | league avg home 1.365 / away 1.317 • Poisson stance: Nancy (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Nancy xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Dijon xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nancy vs Dijon kick off?
Nancy vs Dijon is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 20 November 2026 at Stade Marcel Picot.
Where is Nancy vs Dijon being played?
The match is being played at Stade Marcel Picot.
What competition is Nancy vs Dijon part of?
Nancy vs Dijon is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Nancy vs Dijon?
Our statistical model gives Nancy a 44% chance of winning, Dijon a 29% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Nancy the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nancy vs Dijon?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Nancy and Dijon will score (BTTS).
Will Nancy vs Dijon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nancy and Dijon?
Record (2 meetings): Nancy 1W | Draws 0 | Dijon 1W.
What form are Nancy and Dijon in?
Nancy (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-W-W-W. Dijon (all comps): 3W-3D-3L in 9 | 1.33 PPG | GF 1.78 / GA 1.78 | L5 D-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Nancy's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Dijon's defensive record (1.23x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.53. The same calculation in reverse, Dijon's attack versus Nancy's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nancy Win
44%
2.25
26%
3.79
29%
3.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Nancy xG
Total xG
2.72
1.19
Dijon xG
2.25
44%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
3.43
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
22%
4.60
Win to Nil
14%
7.39
6%
15.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 7.9 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.0 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.2 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nancy vs Dijon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Nancy and Dijon expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Nancy and 1.19 for Dijon, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Nancy vs Dijon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Nancy's recent record stands at 5W 1D 3L from 9 games, a 1.78 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Nancy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dijon, meanwhile, have gone 3W 3D 3L across 9 games — 1.33 PPG, with D-W-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Dijon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Nancy by 0.45 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Dijon heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Nancy have managed 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dijon's away record stands at 1W 2D 1L across 4 trips, a 1.25 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Nancy are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game recently; Dijon are on 1.78 scored and 1.78 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dijon in 89%.
Defensively: Nancy have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 9 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nancy
Blended
Dijon
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nancy and Dijon in coming into this match?
Nancy have gone 5W 1D 3L in their last 9 games (1.78 PPG), while Dijon have gone 3W 3D 3L in their last 9 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nancy at home or Dijon away?
Nancy's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nancy at home: 1.50 PPG; Dijon away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Nancy or Dijon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nancy have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Dijon in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 May 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Nancy
0
Draws
1
Dijon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nancy and Dijon?
From 2 meetings on record, Nancy have won 1, Dijon have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Nancy and Dijon last play each other?
They last met on 7 May 2022, when Dijon 2-3 Nancy.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Nancy see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Dijon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nancy 25%, Dijon 100% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Nancy) and 50% (Dijon).
On the defensive side: Nancy keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nancy home games / Dijon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nancy play Dijon?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 25% of Nancy's games and 100% of Dijon's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Nancy vs Dijon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Nancy's recent games and 50% of Dijon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nancy and Dijon tend to score early?
Nancy have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Dijon in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.