Metz 2-0 Quevilly – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Quevilly at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Metz vs Quevilly fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 19 as Metz welcome Quevilly to Stade Saint-Symphorien. Kick-off is set for Friday 13 January 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Metz — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Metz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Metz have posted 5W 3D 2L at Stade Saint-Symphorien — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Saint-Symphorien. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Quevilly stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Quevilly, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Quevilly have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Metz) versus 1.80 (Quevilly). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Metz's 30% rate and Quevilly's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
In-Play Data
Metz trading profile (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Quevilly trading profile (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Metz 46% versus Quevilly 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Metz 48% | Quevilly 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Metz 0.87 xG and Quevilly 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Metz attack 0.917 / defence 1.105 | Quevilly attack 1.053 / defence 0.859. League average goals — home 1.105 / away 1.007. Data: 18 Metz games / 56 Quevilly games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Metz 27% | Draw 31% | Quevilly 42%. Fair-value odds: Metz 3.70 | Draw 3.23 | Quevilly 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Quevilly as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Quevilly offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.04 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates corroborate: Metz 30% | Quevilly 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Metz vs Quevilly | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stade Saint-Symphorien • Kick-off: Friday 13 Jan 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Metz 27% | Draw 31% | Quevilly 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 41% | xG Metz 0.87 / Quevilly 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Metz attack 0.917 / def 1.105 | Quevilly attack 1.053 / def 0.859 | league avg home 1.105 / away 1.007 • Poisson stance: Quevilly (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.87
Metz xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Quevilly xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Metz vs Quevilly kick off?
Metz vs Quevilly kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 13 January 2023 at Stade Saint-Symphorien.
What was the final score in Metz vs Quevilly?
Metz 2 - 0 Quevilly.
Where is Metz vs Quevilly being played?
The match is being played at Stade Saint-Symphorien.
What competition is Metz vs Quevilly part of?
Metz vs Quevilly is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Metz vs Quevilly?
Our statistical model gives Metz a 27% chance of winning, Quevilly a 42% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Quevilly the favourite.
Will both teams score in Metz vs Quevilly?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Metz and Quevilly will score (BTTS).
Will Metz vs Quevilly have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Metz and Quevilly?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Metz and Quevilly in?
Metz (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Quevilly (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Metz's attack rating (0.92) and Quevilly's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 0.87 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Quevilly's attack versus Metz's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.7%), 0-1 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Quevilly Win
27%
3.73
31%
3.25
42%
2.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.87
Metz xG
Total xG
2.04
1.17
Quevilly xG
3.73
27%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
2.36
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.47
59%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
42%
2.39
Win to Nil
8%
12.02
18%
5.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.0 | 15.2 | 8.9 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 13.2 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 5.8 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Metz vs Quevilly?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Metz and Quevilly expected to score?
The model projects 0.87 expected goals for Metz and 1.17 for Quevilly, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Metz vs Quevilly?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 56 outings, Metz have picked up 1.05 PPG on a 14W 17D 25L record — W-W-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Metz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Quevilly's form line: 17W 16D 23L from 56 games, 1.20 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-D. The sample for Quevilly is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Metz on 1.05 PPG, Quevilly on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Metz have posted 1.11 PPG from 27 outings (7W 9D 11L).
On the road, Quevilly have gone 8W 5D 14L from 27 away games — 1.07 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Metz are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Quevilly are on 1.00 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Metz
Blended
Quevilly
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Metz and Quevilly in coming into this match?
Metz have gone 14W 17D 25L in their last 56 games (1.05 PPG), while Quevilly have gone 17W 16D 23L in their last 56 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Metz at home or Quevilly away?
Metz's home record (1.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Metz at home: 1.11 PPG; Quevilly away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Metz
0
Draws
0
Quevilly
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Metz and Quevilly?
From 2 meetings on record, Metz have won 2, Quevilly have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Metz and Quevilly last play each other?
They last met on 18 March 2023, when Quevilly 1-2 Metz.
Who has won more matches between Metz and Quevilly?
Metz have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Metz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Quevilly are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Metz 48%, Quevilly 30% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Metz) and 41% (Quevilly).
On the defensive side: Metz keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Metz have failed to score in 37% of games; Quevilly in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Metz home games / Quevilly away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Metz play Quevilly?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Metz's recent matches and 30% of Quevilly's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Metz vs Quevilly usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Metz's recent games and 41% of Quevilly's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Metz and Quevilly tend to score early?
Metz have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Quevilly in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Metz cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Quevilly.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Metz beat Quevilly 2-0 at Stade Saint-Symphorien, Regular Season - 19, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Metz 0.87 xG and Quevilly 1.17 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Metz beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Quevilly landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Metz attack 0.92 / defence 1.10 against Quevilly attack 1.05 / defence 0.86, drawn from 18/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Metz 27% | Draw 31% | Quevilly 42%, with Quevilly to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Metz win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Metz 48%, Quevilly 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Metz's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
Quevilly's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Metz 1.05 PPG, Quevilly 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Metz win broke the near-deadlock. Metz (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.41 average — tighter than their form line. Quevilly (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.81 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.