Le Havre 1-2 Auxerre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Auxerre at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Le Havre vs Auxerre encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 37 as Le Havre welcome Auxerre to Stade Océane. Kick-off is set for Saturday 7 May 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Le Havre — All Games: 4W 0D 6L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W W W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Le Havre's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 games at Stade Océane this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Auxerre have recorded 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.00. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Auxerre have posted 6W 4D 0L from 10 away outings — 2.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Auxerre's 2.30 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Le Havre's 1.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Le Havre, 0 for Auxerre and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 21 Dec 2021, ended 3–2 with Le Havre winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Le Havre in-play and half-time data (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Auxerre in-play and half-time data (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Le Havre 39% versus Auxerre 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Le Havre 33% | Auxerre 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Le Havre 0.81 xG and Auxerre 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Le Havre attack 0.822 / defence 1.355 | Auxerre attack 1.153 / defence 1.049. League average goals — home 0.944 / away 1.062. Data: 36 Le Havre games / 36 Auxerre games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Le Havre 17% | Draw 26% | Auxerre 57%. Fair-value odds: Le Havre 5.88 | Draw 3.85 | Auxerre 1.75. The model has a clear lean to Auxerre (57%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Auxerre at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.47 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Le Havre 40% | Auxerre 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Le Havre vs Auxerre | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Stade Océane • Kick-off: Saturday 7 May 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Le Havre 17% | Draw 26% | Auxerre 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 46% | xG Le Havre 0.81 / Auxerre 1.66 • Poisson strength factors: Le Havre attack 0.822 / def 1.355 | Auxerre attack 1.153 / def 1.049 | league avg home 0.944 / away 1.062 • Poisson stance: Auxerre (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.81
Le Havre xG
Expected Goals
1.66
Auxerre xG
46%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Le Havre vs Auxerre kick off?
Le Havre vs Auxerre kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 7 May 2022 at Stade Océane.
What was the final score in Le Havre vs Auxerre?
Le Havre 1 - 2 Auxerre.
Where is Le Havre vs Auxerre being played?
The match is being played at Stade Océane.
What competition is Le Havre vs Auxerre part of?
Le Havre vs Auxerre is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Le Havre vs Auxerre?
Our statistical model gives Le Havre a 17% chance of winning, Auxerre a 57% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Auxerre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Le Havre vs Auxerre?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Le Havre and Auxerre will score (BTTS).
Will Le Havre vs Auxerre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Auxerre?
Record (1 meetings): Le Havre 1W | Draws 0 | Auxerre 0W.
What form are Le Havre and Auxerre in?
Le Havre (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. Auxerre (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Le Havre's attack rating (0.82) and Auxerre's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 0.81 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Auxerre's attack versus Le Havre's defence, projects 1.66 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.5%), 0-2 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Auxerre Win
17%
5.75
26%
3.85
57%
1.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.6%
Away win
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.81
Le Havre xG
Total xG
2.47
1.66
Auxerre xG
5.75
17%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
1.77
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
19%
5.25
44%
2.26
Win to Nil
3%
30.23
25%
3.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 14.0 | 11.6 | 6.4 | 2.7 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 11.4 | 9.4 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 4.6 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Le Havre vs Auxerre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Le Havre and Auxerre expected to score?
The model projects 0.81 expected goals for Le Havre and 1.66 for Auxerre, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Le Havre vs Auxerre?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Le Havre come into this having played 36 games, going 13W 11D 12L for 1.39 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-L.
On the other side, Auxerre sit at 1.89 PPG from 36 outings (19W 11D 6L), a run that reads W-W-W-D-W across their last five.
Auxerre carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Le Havre — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Le Havre's home form reads 6W 5D 7L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.28 PPG return.
Away from home, Auxerre have taken 1.89 points per game from 18 outings (9W 7D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Auxerre come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Le Havre are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Auxerre are on 1.58 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Defensively: Le Havre have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games; Auxerre in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Le Havre
Current Season
Auxerre
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Le Havre and Auxerre in coming into this match?
Le Havre have gone 13W 11D 12L in their last 36 games (1.39 PPG), while Auxerre have gone 19W 11D 6L in their last 36 (1.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Le Havre at home or Auxerre away?
Auxerre's away record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Le Havre at home: 1.28 PPG; Auxerre away: 1.89 PPG.
Have Le Havre or Auxerre been keeping clean sheets recently?
Le Havre have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Auxerre in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Le Havre and Auxerre runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 2, Ligue 1 all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Le Havre's record when hosting Auxerre specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Le Havre
1
Draws
1
Auxerre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Auxerre?
From 6 meetings on record, Le Havre have won 4, Auxerre have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Le Havre and Auxerre last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Le Havre 1-1 Auxerre.
Who has won more matches between Le Havre and Auxerre?
Le Havre have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Le Havre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Le Havre 39%, Auxerre 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 28% (Le Havre) and 44% (Auxerre).
On the defensive side: Le Havre keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Auxerre in 33%; Le Havre have failed to score in 39% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Le Havre home games / Auxerre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Le Havre play Auxerre?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Le Havre's recent matches and 61% of Auxerre's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Le Havre vs Auxerre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 28% of Le Havre's recent games and 44% of Auxerre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Le Havre and Auxerre tend to score early?
Le Havre have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Auxerre in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Auxerre edge out Le Havre 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Auxerre beat Le Havre 1-2 at Stade Océane, Regular Season - 37, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Le Havre 0.81 xG and Auxerre 1.66 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Le Havre attack 0.82 / defence 1.35 against Auxerre attack 1.15 / defence 1.05, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Le Havre 17% | Draw 26% | Auxerre 57%, with Auxerre to win its most likely call at 57%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Le Havre 33%, Auxerre 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Le Havre's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Auxerre's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Auxerre arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 1.39. Form held, and they took the win. Le Havre (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.