Laval 0-0 Rodez – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Rodez at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Laval vs Rodez encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Rodez make the trip to Stade Francis Le Basser to face Laval in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 32. The match kicks off on Friday 24 April 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Laval (all games): 2W 6D 2L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W D D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Laval's home record at Stade Francis Le Basser: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Rodez have collected 2.40 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 7W 3D 0L. Last five: W D D W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Rodez's away record: 4W 4D 2L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Rodez are 1.20 PPG clear of Laval in recent Ligue 2 fixtures (2.40 vs 1.20). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Laval register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Rodez in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Historically, Laval have had the better of this match-up — 5 wins from 7 meetings, with Rodez managing just 1 victories and 1 draws shared.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Aug 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The historical record gives Laval a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 7 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Laval — key trading statistics (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Rodez — key trading statistics (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Laval 46% versus Rodez 71%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Laval 40% | Rodez 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Laval 1.28 xG and Rodez 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Laval attack 1.032 / defence 1.257 | Rodez attack 1.109 / defence 1.027. League average goals — home 1.208 / away 1.174. Data: 65 Laval games / 65 Rodez games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Laval 28% | Draw 27% | Rodez 44%. Fair-value odds: Laval 3.57 | Draw 3.70 | Rodez 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.28 / 1.64) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
Laval dominate the H2H record, yet Rodez are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, Rodez are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rodez if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.92 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Laval 70% | Rodez 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Laval vs Rodez | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Stade Francis Le Basser • Kick-off: Friday 24 Apr 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Laval 28% | Draw 27% | Rodez 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 60% | xG Laval 1.28 / Rodez 1.64 • Poisson strength factors: Laval attack 1.032 / def 1.257 | Rodez attack 1.109 / def 1.027 | league avg home 1.208 / away 1.174 • Poisson stance: Rodez (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Laval xG
Expected Goals
1.64
Rodez xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Laval vs Rodez kick off?
Laval vs Rodez kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 24 April 2026 at Stade Francis Le Basser.
What was the final score in Laval vs Rodez?
Laval 0 - 0 Rodez.
Where is Laval vs Rodez being played?
The match is being played at Stade Francis Le Basser.
What competition is Laval vs Rodez part of?
Laval vs Rodez is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Laval vs Rodez?
Our statistical model gives Laval a 28% chance of winning, Rodez a 44% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Rodez the favourite.
Will both teams score in Laval vs Rodez?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Laval and Rodez will score (BTTS).
Will Laval vs Rodez have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Laval and Rodez?
Record (7 meetings): Laval 5W | Draws 1 | Rodez 1W.
What form are Laval and Rodez in?
Laval (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-D-W. Rodez (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Laval's attack at 1.03x the league average against Rodez's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.28 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Rodez's attack (1.11x) against Laval's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 1.64.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Rodez Win
28%
3.52
27%
3.66
44%
2.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Laval xG
Total xG
2.92
1.64
Rodez xG
3.52
28%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
2.26
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
19%
5.14
28%
3.60
Win to Nil
6%
18.08
12%
8.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 8.9 | 7.2 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 11.3 | 9.3 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.3 | 5.9 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Laval vs Rodez?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Laval and Rodez expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Laval and 1.64 for Rodez, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Laval vs Rodez?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 65 outings, Laval have picked up 1.20 PPG on a 19W 21D 25L record — L-W-D-D-W across the most recent five.
Rodez's form line: 22W 24D 19L from 65 games, 1.38 PPG, last five W-D-D-W-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.20 PPG for Laval against 1.38 for Rodez. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Laval have posted 1.16 PPG from 32 outings (9W 10D 13L).
On the road, Rodez have gone 9W 12D 11L from 32 away games — 1.22 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Laval are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Rodez are on 1.49 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rodez in 71%.
Last 65 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Laval
Current Season
Rodez
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Laval and Rodez in coming into this match?
Laval have gone 19W 21D 25L in their last 65 games (1.20 PPG), while Rodez have gone 22W 24D 19L in their last 65 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Laval at home or Rodez away?
Rodez's away record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Laval at home: 1.16 PPG; Rodez away: 1.22 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since January 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Laval have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Rodez — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Laval
2
Draws
2
Rodez
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Laval and Rodez?
From 9 meetings on record, Laval have won 5, Rodez have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Laval and Rodez last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when Rodez 3-1 Laval.
Who has won more matches between Laval and Rodez?
Laval have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Laval are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Rodez are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Laval 53%, Rodez 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Laval) and 62% (Rodez).
On the defensive side: Laval have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Laval home games / Rodez away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Laval play Rodez?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Laval's games and 69% of Rodez's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Laval vs Rodez usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Laval's recent games and 62% of Rodez's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Laval and Rodez tend to score early?
Laval have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Rodez in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Laval's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Laval and Rodez finished level at 0-0 at Stade Francis Le Basser, Regular Season - 32, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Laval 1.28 xG and Rodez 1.64 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Laval fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Rodez landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Laval attack 1.03 / defence 1.26 against Rodez attack 1.11 / defence 1.03, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Laval 28% | Draw 27% | Rodez 44%, with Rodez to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Laval 40%, Rodez 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Laval's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Rodez's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Laval 1.20 PPG, Rodez 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Laval (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line. Rodez (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.53 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.56 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.