Laval 1-2 Clermont Foot – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Laval at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Laval vs Clermont Foot fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Francis Le Basser plays host to Laval versus Clermont Foot in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Tuesday 29 October 2024 at 19:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Laval have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Laval, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Laval have posted 3W 2D 5L at Stade Francis Le Basser — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Clermont Foot (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: D L W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Clermont Foot, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Clermont Foot's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Laval against 0.90 for Clermont Foot. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading
Laval half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Clermont Foot half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Laval 52% versus Clermont Foot 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Laval 46% | Clermont Foot 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Laval 1.48 xG and Clermont Foot 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Laval attack 1.084 / defence 1.124 | Clermont Foot attack 0.601 / defence 0.960. League average goals — home 1.421 / away 1.139. Data: 48 Laval games / 10 Clermont Foot games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Laval 54% | Draw 26% | Clermont Foot 19%. Fair-value odds: Laval 1.85 | Draw 3.85 | Clermont Foot 5.26. Laval hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Laval at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Laval if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.25 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Laval 70% | Clermont Foot 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Laval vs Clermont Foot | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stade Francis Le Basser • Kick-off: Tuesday 29 Oct 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Laval 54% | Draw 26% | Clermont Foot 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 41% | xG Laval 1.48 / Clermont Foot 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Laval attack 1.084 / def 1.124 | Clermont Foot attack 0.601 / def 0.960 | league avg home 1.421 / away 1.139 • Poisson stance: Laval (54%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Laval xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Clermont Foot xG
41%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Laval vs Clermont Foot kick off?
Laval vs Clermont Foot kicked off at 19:30 on Tuesday 29 October 2024 at Stade Francis Le Basser.
What was the final score in Laval vs Clermont Foot?
Laval 1 - 2 Clermont Foot.
Where is Laval vs Clermont Foot being played?
The match is being played at Stade Francis Le Basser.
What competition is Laval vs Clermont Foot part of?
Laval vs Clermont Foot is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Laval vs Clermont Foot?
Our statistical model gives Laval a 54% chance of winning, Clermont Foot a 19% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Laval the favourite.
Will both teams score in Laval vs Clermont Foot?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Laval and Clermont Foot will score (BTTS).
Will Laval vs Clermont Foot have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Laval and Clermont Foot?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Laval and Clermont Foot in?
Laval (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Clermont Foot (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-W-D-L.
What do the betting odds say about Laval vs Clermont Foot?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Laval's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against Clermont Foot's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.48. Flip it around — Clermont Foot's attack (0.60x) against Laval's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 0.77.
These ratings are built from 48/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.6%), 0-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Laval Win
54%
1.85
26%
3.78
19%
5.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Laval xG
Total xG
2.25
0.77
Clermont Foot xG
1.85
54%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
5.14
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.41
59%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
46%
2.16
23%
4.39
Win to Nil
25%
3.99
4%
22.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 8.1 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.6 | 12.0 | 4.6 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 8.9 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.7 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Laval vs Clermont Foot?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Laval and Clermont Foot expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Laval and 0.77 for Clermont Foot, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Laval vs Clermont Foot?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 44 outings, Laval have picked up 1.41 PPG on a 17W 11D 16L record — W-W-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Laval is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Clermont Foot's form line: 7W 13D 24L from 44 games, 0.77 PPG, last five D-L-W-D-L. The sample for Clermont Foot is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Laval are the form team by 0.64 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Clermont Foot.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Laval have posted 1.14 PPG from 21 outings (6W 6D 9L).
On the road, Clermont Foot have gone 3W 6D 12L from 21 away games — 0.71 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Laval come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Laval are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Clermont Foot are on 0.77 scored and 1.61 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Laval
Blended
Clermont Foot
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Laval and Clermont Foot in coming into this match?
Laval have gone 17W 11D 16L in their last 44 games (1.41 PPG), while Clermont Foot have gone 7W 13D 24L in their last 44 (0.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Laval at home or Clermont Foot away?
Laval's home record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Laval at home: 1.14 PPG; Clermont Foot away: 0.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 3 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Clermont Foot won 4-1 on 3 Jan 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Laval have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Clermont Foot — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Laval
2
Draws
2
Clermont Foot
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Laval and Clermont Foot?
From 4 meetings on record, Laval have won 0, Clermont Foot have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Laval and Clermont Foot last play each other?
They last met on 3 January 2026, when Clermont Foot 4-1 Laval.
Who has won more matches between Laval and Clermont Foot?
Clermont Foot have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Laval are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Clermont Foot are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Laval 71%, Clermont Foot 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Laval) and 52% (Clermont Foot).
On the defensive side: Clermont Foot in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Laval home games / Clermont Foot away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Laval play Clermont Foot?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Laval's games and 43% of Clermont Foot's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Laval vs Clermont Foot usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Laval's recent games and 52% of Clermont Foot's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Laval and Clermont Foot tend to score early?
Laval have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Clermont Foot in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Clermont Foot defy the odds to beat Laval 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Clermont Foot beat Laval 1-2 at Stade Francis Le Basser, Regular Season - 11, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Laval 1.48 xG and Clermont Foot 0.77 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Clermont Foot outscored their 0.77 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Laval attack 1.08 / defence 1.12 against Clermont Foot attack 0.60 / defence 0.96, drawn from 48/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Laval 54% | Draw 26% | Clermont Foot 19%, with Laval to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Clermont Foot win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Laval 46%, Clermont Foot 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Laval's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Clermont Foot's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Laval arrived the stronger side — 1.41 PPG against 0.77. Form was overturned, with Clermont Foot winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Clermont Foot (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.62 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.