Guingamp 0-1 PAU – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Guingamp at 56% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Guingamp vs PAU encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Guingamp host PAU at Stade du Roudourou in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 18 October 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Guingamp stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Guingamp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Guingamp at Stade du Roudourou this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, PAU have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. PAU have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
PAU's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Guingamp 1.30 PPG, PAU 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Guingamp have won 4, PAU 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 27 Apr 2024, ended 2–1 with Guingamp winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Guingamp in-play tendencies (45 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
PAU in-play tendencies (45 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guingamp 42% versus PAU 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guingamp 51% | PAU 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 2.39 xG and PAU 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 1.325 / defence 1.211 | PAU attack 1.150 / defence 1.248. League average goals — home 1.446 / away 1.117. Guingamp carry an above-average attack strength of 1.325 — their λ of 2.39 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. PAU bring a strong defensive rating of 1.248 — this is suppressing Guingamp's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 46 Guingamp games / 45 PAU games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Guingamp 56% | Draw 19% | PAU 24%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 1.79 | Draw 5.26 | PAU 4.17. The model has a clear lean to Guingamp (56%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 75% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 3.95. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 75% — a total xG of 3.95 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (2.39 / 1.56) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Guingamp are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.95 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 75% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 72%. Form rates corroborate: Guingamp 50% | PAU 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guingamp vs PAU | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stade du Roudourou • Kick-off: Friday 18 Oct 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guingamp 56% | Draw 19% | PAU 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 75% | BTTS 72% | xG Guingamp 2.39 / PAU 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Guingamp attack 1.325 / def 1.211 | PAU attack 1.150 / def 1.248 | league avg home 1.446 / away 1.117 • Poisson stance: Guingamp (56%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
2.39
Guingamp xG
Expected Goals
1.56
PAU xG
72%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
56%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Guingamp vs PAU kick off?
Guingamp vs PAU kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 18 October 2024 at Stade du Roudourou.
What was the final score in Guingamp vs PAU?
Guingamp 0 - 1 PAU.
Where is Guingamp vs PAU being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Roudourou.
What competition is Guingamp vs PAU part of?
Guingamp vs PAU is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Guingamp vs PAU?
Our statistical model gives Guingamp a 56% chance of winning, PAU a 24% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Guingamp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guingamp vs PAU?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both Guingamp and PAU will score (BTTS).
Will Guingamp vs PAU have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 75%.
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and PAU?
Record (6 meetings): Guingamp 4W | Draws 0 | PAU 2W.
What form are Guingamp and PAU in?
Guingamp (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-L-W-L. PAU (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-L-W-L.
What do the betting odds say about Guingamp vs PAU?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Guingamp's attack rating (1.32) and PAU's defence rating (1.25), the model arrives at 2.39 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, PAU's attack versus Guingamp's defence, projects 1.56 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.1%), 3-1 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Guingamp Win
56%
1.78
19%
5.18
24%
4.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.2%
Draw
3 – 1
6.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.39
Guingamp xG
Total xG
3.95
1.56
PAU xG
1.78
56%
Home win
5.18
19%
Draw
4.08
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
75%
Over 2.5
1.33
25%
Under 2.5
4.00
56%
Over 3.5
1.79
44%
Under 3.5
2.27
36%
Over 4.5
2.78
64%
Under 4.5
1.56
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.39
28%
BTTS No
3.53
Clean Sheet
21%
4.74
9%
10.92
Win to Nil
12%
8.44
2%
44.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.9 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 4.6 | 7.2 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.6 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 6.8 | 5.3 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 4.1 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Guingamp vs PAU?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.6%.
How many goals are Guingamp and PAU expected to score?
The model projects 2.39 expected goals for Guingamp and 1.56 for PAU, a combined total of 3.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Guingamp vs PAU?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Guingamp come into this having played 45 games, going 16W 13D 16L for 1.36 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-L. The sample for Guingamp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, PAU sit at 1.38 PPG from 45 outings (16W 14D 15L), a run that reads D-W-L-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for PAU, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Guingamp on 1.36 PPG, PAU on 1.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Guingamp's home form reads 7W 8D 8L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.26 PPG return.
Away from home, PAU have taken 1.13 points per game from 23 outings (6W 8D 9L).
Goals in Recent Form
Guingamp are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; PAU are on 1.58 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: PAU in 62%.
Defensively: Guingamp have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guingamp
Blended
PAU
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Guingamp and PAU in coming into this match?
Guingamp have gone 16W 13D 16L in their last 45 games (1.36 PPG), while PAU have gone 16W 14D 15L in their last 45 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Guingamp at home or PAU away?
Guingamp's home record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Guingamp at home: 1.26 PPG; PAU away: 1.13 PPG.
Have Guingamp or PAU been keeping clean sheets recently?
Guingamp have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, PAU in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 17 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Jul 2022, when Guingamp won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Guingamp's record when hosting PAU specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Guingamp
1
Draws
4
PAU
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and PAU?
From 10 meetings on record, Guingamp have won 5, PAU have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Guingamp and PAU last play each other?
They last met on 17 April 2026, when PAU 2-1 Guingamp.
Who has won more matches between Guingamp and PAU?
Guingamp have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
PAU are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Guingamp 44%, PAU 74% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for Guingamp and 65% for PAU. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Guingamp keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Guingamp have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guingamp home games / PAU away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Guingamp play PAU?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 44% of Guingamp's games and 74% of PAU's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Guingamp vs PAU usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Guingamp's matches and 65% of PAU's.
Do Guingamp and PAU tend to score early?
Guingamp have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, PAU in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as PAU defy the odds to beat Guingamp 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAU beat Guingamp 0-1 at Stade du Roudourou, Regular Season - 9, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Guingamp 2.39 xG and PAU 1.56 xG, a combined 3.95. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Guingamp fell 2.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guingamp attack 1.32 / defence 1.21 against PAU attack 1.15 / defence 1.25, drawn from 46/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Guingamp 56% | Draw 19% | PAU 24%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a PAU win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 75%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 90% and missed. Over 3.5 was 56% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guingamp 51%, PAU 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Guingamp's trading profile (45 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
PAU's trading profile (45 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Guingamp 1.36 PPG, PAU 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the PAU win broke the near-deadlock. Guingamp (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.57 scoring average — below par going forward. PAU (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.70 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.