Guingamp 0-1 Paris FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Guingamp at 50% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Guingamp vs Paris FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Guingamp and Paris FC meet at Stade du Roudourou in Ligue 2 (matchday 21). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 1 February 2025 at 19:00 UK time.
Form
Guingamp (all games): 7W 1D 2L across their last 10 — 2.20 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Guingamp at home: 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Paris FC's record over their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Paris FC away from home: 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (60%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form ledger tips toward Guingamp. A 0.90 PPG lead over Paris FC (2.20 vs 1.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 7 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Guingamp, 3 for Paris FC and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game across the 7 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 24 Sep 2024, ended Guingamp 0–2 Paris FC — a Paris FC win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Guingamp — key trading statistics (last 58 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Paris FC — key trading statistics (last 58 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guingamp 41% versus Paris FC 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guingamp 52% | Paris FC 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 1.48 xG and Paris FC 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 1.257 / defence 0.855 | Paris FC attack 1.076 / defence 0.898. League average goals — home 1.309 / away 1.007. Guingamp carry an above-average attack rating of 1.257 — their 1.48 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Guingamp's last 58 games and Paris FC's last 58.
Result probabilities: Guingamp 50% | Draw 26% | Paris FC 24%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 2.00 | Draw 3.80 | Paris FC 4.23. Guingamp hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Guingamp are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Guingamp if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.40 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.7 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 53%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Guingamp 40% (last 10 home games) | Paris FC 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guingamp vs Paris FC | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 21 | Venue: Stade du Roudourou • Kick-off: Saturday 1 February 2025 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guingamp 50% | Draw 26% | Paris FC 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Guingamp 1.48 / Paris FC 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Guingamp attack 1.257 / def 0.855 | Paris FC attack 1.076 / def 0.898 | league avg home 1.309 / away 1.007 • Poisson stance: Guingamp (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Guingamp xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Paris FC xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Guingamp vs Paris FC FAQs
What time does Guingamp vs Paris FC kick off?
Guingamp vs Paris FC kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Saturday 1 February 2025 at Stade du Roudourou.
What was the final score in Guingamp vs Paris FC?
Guingamp 0 - 1 Paris FC.
Where is Guingamp vs Paris FC being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Roudourou.
What competition is Guingamp vs Paris FC part of?
Guingamp vs Paris FC is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 21) (France).
Who is favourite to win Guingamp vs Paris FC?
Our statistical model gives Guingamp a 50% chance of winning, Paris FC a 24% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Guingamp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guingamp vs Paris FC?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Guingamp and Paris FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Guingamp vs Paris FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Guingamp's attacking strength (1.26x league average) is weighed against Paris FC's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.48. Flip it around — Paris FC's attack (1.08x) against Guingamp's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from Guingamp's last 58 games and Paris FC's last 58 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.8%), 0-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Guingamp Win
50%
2.00
26%
3.80
24%
4.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Guingamp xG
Total xG
2.40
0.93
Paris FC xG
2.00
50%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
4.23
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.15
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
23%
4.38
Win to Nil
20%
5.05
5%
18.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 8.4 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 12.4 | 5.7 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.1 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Guingamp vs Paris FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Guingamp vs Paris FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Guingamp and Paris FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Guingamp and 0.93 for Paris FC, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Guingamp vs Paris FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Guingamp's recent record stands at 24W 14D 20L from 58 games, a 1.48 PPG return, with L-D-W-W-W in the last five.
Paris FC, meanwhile, have gone 27W 16D 15L across 58 games — 1.67 PPG, with L-L-W-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.48 PPG for Guingamp against 1.67 for Paris FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Guingamp have managed 11W 9D 9L from their last 29 home games — 1.45 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Paris FC's away record stands at 11W 10D 8L across their last 29 away games, a 1.48 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Guingamp are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Paris FC are on 1.41 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Defensively: Guingamp have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games; Paris FC in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guingamp
Blended
Paris FC
Blended
Guingamp (Home) vs Paris FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Guingamp
Blended
Paris FC
Blended
❓ Guingamp vs Paris FC Form FAQs
What form are Guingamp and Paris FC in coming into this match?
Guingamp have gone 24W 14D 20L in their last 58 games (1.48 PPG), while Paris FC have gone 27W 16D 15L in their last 58 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Guingamp at home or Paris FC away?
Paris FC's away record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Guingamp at home: 1.45 PPG; Paris FC away: 1.48 PPG.
Have Guingamp or Paris FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Guingamp have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Paris FC in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 8 H2H matches between Guingamp and Paris FC, the earliest from September 2021. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent in our data was on 1 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Paris FC have won each of the latest 4 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Guingamp have gone 0W 2D 2L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Paris FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Guingamp
2
Draws
4
Paris FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Guingamp vs Paris FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Paris FC?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Guingamp have won 2, Paris FC have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Guingamp and Paris FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 February 2025: Guingamp 0-1 Paris FC.
Who has won more matches between Guingamp and Paris FC?
Paris FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Paris FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Guingamp 38%, Paris FC 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Guingamp) and 38% (Paris FC).
On the defensive side: Guingamp keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Paris FC in 38%; Guingamp have failed to score in 31% of games; Paris FC in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guingamp home games / Paris FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Guingamp vs Paris FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Guingamp and Paris FC matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Guingamp's recent matches and 45% of Paris FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Guingamp and Paris FC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Guingamp's recent games and 38% of Paris FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Guingamp and Paris FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 66% of Guingamp's recent matches and 66% of Paris FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Paris FC defy the odds to beat Guingamp 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Paris FC beat Guingamp 0-1 at Stade du Roudourou, Regular Season - 21, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Guingamp 1.48 xG and Paris FC 0.93 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Guingamp fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guingamp attack 1.26 / defence 0.85 against Paris FC attack 1.08 / defence 0.90, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Guingamp 50% | Draw 26% | Paris FC 24%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Paris FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guingamp 52%, Paris FC 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Guingamp's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Paris FC's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Guingamp 1.48 PPG, Paris FC 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Paris FC win broke the near-deadlock. Guingamp (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.62 scoring average — below par going forward. Paris FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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