Guingamp 2-0 Niort – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Guingamp at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Guingamp vs Niort encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 37 sees Niort travel to Stade du Roudourou to take on Guingamp. The game is scheduled for Friday 26 May 2023, 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Guingamp have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L W L W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Guingamp's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 games at Stade du Roudourou this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Niort — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Niort have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Guingamp carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 0.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Guingamp, 1 for Niort and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 1 Oct 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Guingamp trading profile (74 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Niort trading profile (74 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guingamp 61% versus Niort 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guingamp 49% | Niort 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 1.55 xG and Niort 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 1.084 / defence 1.081 | Niort attack 0.635 / defence 1.086. League average goals — home 1.318 / away 1.145. Data: 74 Guingamp games / 74 Niort games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Guingamp 55% | Draw 26% | Niort 19%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 1.82 | Draw 3.85 | Niort 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Guingamp (55%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Guingamp are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.34 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates are neutral: Guingamp 70% | Niort 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guingamp vs Niort | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Stade du Roudourou • Kick-off: Friday 26 May 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guingamp 55% | Draw 26% | Niort 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 43% | xG Guingamp 1.55 / Niort 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Guingamp attack 1.084 / def 1.081 | Niort attack 0.635 / def 1.086 | league avg home 1.318 / away 1.145 • Poisson stance: Guingamp (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Guingamp xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Niort xG
43%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Guingamp vs Niort kick off?
Guingamp vs Niort kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 26 May 2023 at Stade du Roudourou.
What was the final score in Guingamp vs Niort?
Guingamp 2 - 0 Niort.
Where is Guingamp vs Niort being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Roudourou.
What competition is Guingamp vs Niort part of?
Guingamp vs Niort is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Guingamp vs Niort?
Our statistical model gives Guingamp a 55% chance of winning, Niort a 19% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Guingamp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guingamp vs Niort?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Guingamp and Niort will score (BTTS).
Will Guingamp vs Niort have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Niort?
Record (3 meetings): Guingamp 1W | Draws 1 | Niort 1W.
What form are Guingamp and Niort in?
Guingamp (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. Niort (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Guingamp's attack rating (1.08) and Niort's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.55 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Niort's attack versus Guingamp's defence, projects 0.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 74/74 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.3%), 2-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Guingamp Win
55%
1.81
26%
3.82
19%
5.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Guingamp xG
Total xG
2.34
0.79
Niort xG
1.81
55%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
5.36
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
46%
2.19
21%
4.72
Win to Nil
25%
3.98
4%
25.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.0 | 11.8 | 4.6 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 9.1 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.0 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Guingamp vs Niort?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Guingamp and Niort expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Guingamp and 0.79 for Niort, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Guingamp vs Niort?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 74 outings, Guingamp have picked up 1.45 PPG on a 28W 23D 23L record — L-W-L-W-D across the most recent five.
Niort's form line: 19W 17D 38L from 74 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-D.
Put side by side, Guingamp are the form team by 0.45 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Niort.
Venue Form
On home soil, Guingamp have posted 1.49 PPG from 37 outings (15W 10D 12L).
On the road, Niort have gone 7W 9D 21L from 37 away games — 0.81 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Guingamp come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Guingamp are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Niort are on 0.96 scored and 1.41 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Guingamp have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 74 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guingamp
Current Season
Niort
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Guingamp and Niort in coming into this match?
Guingamp have gone 28W 23D 23L in their last 74 games (1.45 PPG), while Niort have gone 19W 17D 38L in their last 74 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Guingamp at home or Niort away?
Guingamp's home record (1.49 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Guingamp at home: 1.49 PPG; Niort away: 0.81 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Guingamp's record when hosting Niort specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Guingamp
1
Draws
1
Niort
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Niort?
From 4 meetings on record, Guingamp have won 2, Niort have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Guingamp and Niort last play each other?
They last met on 26 May 2023, when Guingamp 2-0 Niort.
Who has won more matches between Guingamp and Niort?
Guingamp have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Niort see a goal before the break in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Guingamp 68%, Niort 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Guingamp) and 43% (Niort).
On the defensive side: Niort in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guingamp home games / Niort away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Guingamp play Niort?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 68% of Guingamp's recent matches and 35% of Niort's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Guingamp vs Niort usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Guingamp's recent games and 43% of Niort's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Guingamp and Niort tend to score early?
Guingamp have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Niort in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Guingamp cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Niort.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Guingamp beat Niort 2-0 at Stade du Roudourou, Regular Season - 37, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Guingamp 1.55 xG and Niort 0.79 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guingamp attack 1.08 / defence 1.08 against Niort attack 0.64 / defence 1.09, drawn from 74/74 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Guingamp 55% | Draw 26% | Niort 19%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guingamp 49%, Niort 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Guingamp's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Niort's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 45% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Guingamp arrived the stronger side — 1.45 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. Guingamp (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.