Guingamp 3-1 Nimes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nimes at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Guingamp vs Nimes fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade du Roudourou plays host to Guingamp versus Nimes in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Saturday 23 October 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Guingamp have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Guingamp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Guingamp's home record at Stade du Roudourou: 1W 2D 2L from 5 Ligue 2 appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Nimes's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Nimes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nimes's away record: 2W 2D 2L from 6 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.33 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Guingamp, 1.00 for Nimes — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading & In-Play
Guingamp — key trading statistics (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Nimes — key trading statistics (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guingamp 58% versus Nimes 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guingamp 42% | Nimes 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 1.12 xG and Nimes 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 0.989 / defence 1.280 | Nimes attack 1.009 / defence 1.247. League average goals — home 0.908 / away 1.054. Nimes bring a strong defensive rating of 1.247 — this is suppressing Guingamp's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 12 Guingamp games / 12 Nimes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Guingamp 30% | Draw 29% | Nimes 41%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 3.33 | Draw 3.45 | Nimes 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Nimes are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Nimes if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.48 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Guingamp 80% | Nimes 50% BTTS from recent games.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guingamp vs Nimes | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stade du Roudourou • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Oct 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guingamp 30% | Draw 29% | Nimes 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Guingamp 1.12 / Nimes 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Guingamp attack 0.989 / def 1.280 | Nimes attack 1.009 / def 1.247 | league avg home 0.908 / away 1.054 • Poisson stance: Nimes (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Guingamp xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Nimes xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Guingamp vs Nimes kick off?
Guingamp vs Nimes kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 23 October 2021 at Stade du Roudourou.
What was the final score in Guingamp vs Nimes?
Guingamp 3 - 1 Nimes.
Where is Guingamp vs Nimes being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Roudourou.
What competition is Guingamp vs Nimes part of?
Guingamp vs Nimes is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Guingamp vs Nimes?
Our statistical model gives Guingamp a 30% chance of winning, Nimes a 41% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Nimes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guingamp vs Nimes?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Guingamp and Nimes will score (BTTS).
Will Guingamp vs Nimes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Nimes?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Guingamp and Nimes in?
Guingamp (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. Nimes (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Guingamp's attack at 0.99x the league average against Nimes's defence at 1.25x — combine the two and it projects 1.12 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Nimes's attack (1.01x) against Guingamp's defence (1.28x) — and the away total comes out at 1.36.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 0-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nimes Win
30%
3.38
29%
3.43
41%
2.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Guingamp xG
Total xG
2.48
1.36
Nimes xG
3.38
30%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
2.43
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
26%
3.90
33%
3.06
Win to Nil
8%
13.18
13%
7.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 11.4 | 7.8 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.8 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.1 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Guingamp vs Nimes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Guingamp and Nimes expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Guingamp and 1.36 for Nimes, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Guingamp vs Nimes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 12 outings, Guingamp have picked up 1.17 PPG on a 3W 5D 4L record — L-L-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Guingamp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Nimes's form line: 3W 5D 4L from 12 games, 1.17 PPG, last five D-L-L-D-L. The sample for Nimes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.17 PPG for Guingamp against 1.17 for Nimes. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Guingamp have posted 1.00 PPG from 5 outings (1W 2D 2L).
On the road, Nimes have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 away games — 1.40 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Guingamp are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Nimes are on 1.17 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Last 12 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guingamp
Blended
Nimes
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Guingamp and Nimes in coming into this match?
Guingamp have gone 3W 5D 4L in their last 12 games (1.17 PPG), while Nimes have gone 3W 5D 4L in their last 12 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Guingamp at home or Nimes away?
Nimes's away record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Guingamp at home: 1.00 PPG; Nimes away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Guingamp or Nimes been keeping clean sheets recently?
Guingamp have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Nimes in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 January 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Guingamp have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Nimes — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Guingamp
0
Draws
1
Nimes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Nimes?
From 4 meetings on record, Guingamp have won 3, Nimes have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Guingamp and Nimes last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2023, when Guingamp 1-2 Nimes.
Who has won more matches between Guingamp and Nimes?
Guingamp have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Nimes see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Guingamp 80%, Nimes 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Guingamp) and 60% (Nimes).
On the defensive side: Nimes in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guingamp home games / Nimes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Guingamp play Nimes?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Guingamp's games and 40% of Nimes's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Guingamp vs Nimes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Guingamp's recent games and 60% of Nimes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Guingamp and Nimes tend to score early?
Guingamp have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Nimes in 40% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Guingamp cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Nimes.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Guingamp beat Nimes 3-1 at Stade du Roudourou, Regular Season - 13, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Guingamp 1.12 xG and Nimes 1.36 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Guingamp beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guingamp attack 0.99 / defence 1.28 against Nimes attack 1.01 / defence 1.25, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Guingamp 30% | Draw 29% | Nimes 41%, with Nimes to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Guingamp win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guingamp 42%, Nimes 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Guingamp's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Nimes's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Guingamp 1.17 PPG, Nimes 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Guingamp win broke the near-deadlock. Guingamp (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Nimes (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.