Guingamp 0-1 Le Havre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Le Havre at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Guingamp vs Le Havre encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 15 as Guingamp welcome Le Havre to Stade du Roudourou. Kick-off is set for Saturday 12 November 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Guingamp stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L L D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Guingamp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Guingamp's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Stade du Roudourou this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Guingamp are significantly better at Stade du Roudourou than their overall form suggests.
Le Havre — All Games: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 2.40 PPG. Last five: D W D W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.40. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Le Havre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Le Havre away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Le Havre are 1.10 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 1.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Guingamp, 0 for Le Havre and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 14 May 2022, ended 2–1 with Guingamp winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Guingamp trading profile (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Le Havre trading profile (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guingamp 60% versus Le Havre 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guingamp 50% | Le Havre 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 0.81 xG and Le Havre 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 0.956 / defence 1.104 | Le Havre attack 1.098 / defence 0.717. League average goals — home 1.179 / away 1.051. Le Havre's defence strength of 0.717 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 52 Guingamp games / 52 Le Havre games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Guingamp 24% | Draw 29% | Le Havre 47%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 4.17 | Draw 3.45 | Le Havre 2.13. Le Havre hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Le Havre as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Le Havre offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.08 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Guingamp 50% | Le Havre 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guingamp vs Le Havre | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stade du Roudourou • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Nov 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guingamp 24% | Draw 29% | Le Havre 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 40% | xG Guingamp 0.81 / Le Havre 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Guingamp attack 0.956 / def 1.104 | Le Havre attack 1.098 / def 0.717 | league avg home 1.179 / away 1.051 • Poisson stance: Le Havre (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.81
Guingamp xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Le Havre xG
40%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Guingamp vs Le Havre kick off?
Guingamp vs Le Havre kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 12 November 2022 at Stade du Roudourou.
What was the final score in Guingamp vs Le Havre?
Guingamp 0 - 1 Le Havre.
Where is Guingamp vs Le Havre being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Roudourou.
What competition is Guingamp vs Le Havre part of?
Guingamp vs Le Havre is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Guingamp vs Le Havre?
Our statistical model gives Guingamp a 24% chance of winning, Le Havre a 47% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Le Havre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guingamp vs Le Havre?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Guingamp and Le Havre will score (BTTS).
Will Guingamp vs Le Havre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Le Havre?
Record (2 meetings): Guingamp 1W | Draws 1 | Le Havre 0W.
What form are Guingamp and Le Havre in?
Guingamp (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-D-D. Le Havre (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.40 | L5 D-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Guingamp's attack rating (0.96) and Le Havre's defence rating (0.72), the model arrives at 0.81 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Le Havre's attack versus Guingamp's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (14.2%), 0-0 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Le Havre Win
24%
4.23
29%
3.45
47%
2.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.81
Guingamp xG
Total xG
2.08
1.27
Le Havre xG
4.23
24%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
2.11
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.51
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
28%
3.57
45%
2.24
Win to Nil
7%
15.11
21%
4.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 15.9 | 10.1 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.8 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 5.2 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Guingamp vs Le Havre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Guingamp and Le Havre expected to score?
The model projects 0.81 expected goals for Guingamp and 1.27 for Le Havre, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Guingamp vs Le Havre?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 52 outings, Guingamp have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 20W 18D 14L record — D-L-L-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Guingamp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Le Havre's form line: 21W 16D 15L from 52 games, 1.52 PPG, last five D-W-D-W-W. The sample for Le Havre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Guingamp on 1.50 PPG, Le Havre on 1.52. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Guingamp have posted 1.62 PPG from 26 outings (11W 9D 6L).
On the road, Le Havre have gone 11W 8D 7L from 26 away games — 1.58 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Guingamp are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Le Havre are on 1.17 scored and 0.90 conceded.
Defensively: Le Havre in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guingamp
Blended
Le Havre
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Guingamp and Le Havre in coming into this match?
Guingamp have gone 20W 18D 14L in their last 52 games (1.50 PPG), while Le Havre have gone 21W 16D 15L in their last 52 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Guingamp at home or Le Havre away?
Guingamp's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Guingamp at home: 1.62 PPG; Le Havre away: 1.58 PPG.
Have Guingamp or Le Havre been keeping clean sheets recently?
Guingamp have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Le Havre in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Guingamp and Le Havre runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Guingamp's record when hosting Le Havre specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Guingamp
2
Draws
1
Le Havre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Le Havre?
From 4 meetings on record, Guingamp have won 1, Le Havre have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Guingamp and Le Havre last play each other?
They last met on 8 April 2023, when Le Havre 0-0 Guingamp.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Le Havre see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Guingamp 69%, Le Havre 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Guingamp) and 38% (Le Havre).
On the defensive side: Le Havre in 46%; Le Havre in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guingamp home games / Le Havre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Guingamp play Le Havre?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 69% of Guingamp's recent matches and 38% of Le Havre's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Guingamp vs Le Havre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Guingamp's recent games and 38% of Le Havre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Guingamp and Le Havre tend to score early?
Guingamp have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Le Havre in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Le Havre edge out Guingamp 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Le Havre beat Guingamp 0-1 at Stade du Roudourou, Regular Season - 15, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Guingamp 0.81 xG and Le Havre 1.27 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Guingamp fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guingamp attack 0.96 / defence 1.10 against Le Havre attack 1.10 / defence 0.72, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Guingamp 24% | Draw 29% | Le Havre 47%, with Le Havre to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guingamp 50%, Le Havre 35%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Guingamp's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Le Havre's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Guingamp 1.50 PPG, Le Havre 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Le Havre win broke the near-deadlock. Guingamp (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward. Le Havre (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.92 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.