Guingamp 0-1 Bastia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Guingamp at 34%, yet other data sources diverge — this Guingamp vs Bastia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 33 as Guingamp welcome Bastia to Stade de Roudourou. Kick-off is set for Saturday 2 May 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Guingamp — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Guingamp have posted 4W 3D 3L at Stade de Roudourou — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade de Roudourou. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Guingamp are significantly better at Stade de Roudourou than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bastia stand at 1W 6D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Bastia have gone 1W 6D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.70 PPG (Guingamp) versus 0.90 (Bastia). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 9 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Guingamp, 3 for Bastia and 4 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2025, ended 3–1 with Guingamp winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Guingamp in-play and half-time data (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Bastia in-play and half-time data (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guingamp 54% versus Bastia 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guingamp 62% | Bastia 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 1.15 xG and Bastia 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 0.857 / defence 0.954 | Bastia attack 0.980 / defence 1.108. League average goals — home 1.215 / away 1.228. Data: 66 Guingamp games / 65 Bastia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Guingamp 34% | Draw 33% | Bastia 33%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 2.94 | Draw 3.03 | Bastia 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Guingamp at 34% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Guingamp offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.30 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Guingamp 30% | Bastia 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guingamp vs Bastia | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Stade de Roudourou • Kick-off: Saturday 2 May 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guingamp 34% | Draw 33% | Bastia 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 49% | xG Guingamp 1.15 / Bastia 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Guingamp attack 0.857 / def 0.954 | Bastia attack 0.980 / def 1.108 | league avg home 1.215 / away 1.228 • Poisson stance: Guingamp (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Guingamp xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Bastia xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Guingamp vs Bastia kick off?
Guingamp vs Bastia kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 2 May 2026 at Stade de Roudourou.
What was the final score in Guingamp vs Bastia?
Guingamp 0 - 1 Bastia.
Where is Guingamp vs Bastia being played?
The match is being played at Stade de Roudourou.
What competition is Guingamp vs Bastia part of?
Guingamp vs Bastia is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Guingamp vs Bastia?
Our statistical model gives Guingamp a 34% chance of winning, Bastia a 33% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Guingamp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guingamp vs Bastia?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Guingamp and Bastia will score (BTTS).
Will Guingamp vs Bastia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Bastia?
Record (9 meetings): Guingamp 2W | Draws 4 | Bastia 3W.
What form are Guingamp and Bastia in?
Guingamp (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Bastia (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Guingamp's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Bastia's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.15. The same calculation in reverse, Bastia's attack versus Guingamp's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.7%), 1-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Guingamp Win
34%
2.97
33%
3.03
33%
3.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Guingamp xG
Total xG
2.30
1.15
Bastia xG
2.97
34%
Home win
3.03
33%
Draw
3.00
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
32%
3.15
32%
3.17
Win to Nil
11%
9.37
11%
9.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 11.5 | 6.6 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.3 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 7.6 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Guingamp vs Bastia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Guingamp and Bastia expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Guingamp and 1.15 for Bastia, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Guingamp vs Bastia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 65 outings, Guingamp have picked up 1.37 PPG on a 25W 14D 26L record — L-L-D-L-L across the most recent five.
Bastia's form line: 15W 28D 22L from 65 games, 1.12 PPG, last five D-D-L-W-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Guingamp on 1.37 PPG, Bastia on 1.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Guingamp have posted 1.56 PPG from 32 outings (14W 8D 10L).
On the road, Bastia have gone 3W 15D 14L from 32 away games — 0.75 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Guingamp come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Guingamp are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Bastia are on 1.00 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Last 65 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guingamp
Current Season
Bastia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Guingamp and Bastia in coming into this match?
Guingamp have gone 25W 14D 26L in their last 65 games (1.37 PPG), while Bastia have gone 15W 28D 22L in their last 65 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Guingamp at home or Bastia away?
Guingamp's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Guingamp at home: 1.56 PPG; Bastia away: 0.75 PPG.
Have Guingamp or Bastia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Guingamp have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Bastia in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Guingamp's record when hosting Bastia specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Guingamp
4
Draws
4
Bastia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Bastia?
From 10 meetings on record, Guingamp have won 2, Bastia have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Guingamp and Bastia last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Guingamp 0-1 Bastia.
Who has won more matches between Guingamp and Bastia?
Bastia have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Bastia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Guingamp 44%, Bastia 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Guingamp) and 25% (Bastia).
On the defensive side: Guingamp keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Bastia in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guingamp home games / Bastia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Guingamp play Bastia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Guingamp's recent matches and 41% of Bastia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Guingamp vs Bastia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Guingamp's recent games and 25% of Bastia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Guingamp and Bastia tend to score early?
Guingamp have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Bastia in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Bastia defy the odds to beat Guingamp 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bastia beat Guingamp 0-1 at Stade de Roudourou, Regular Season - 33, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Guingamp 1.15 xG and Bastia 1.15 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Guingamp fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guingamp attack 0.86 / defence 0.95 against Bastia attack 0.98 / defence 1.11, drawn from 66/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Guingamp 34% | Draw 33% | Bastia 33%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual Bastia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guingamp 62%, Bastia 29%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Guingamp's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Bastia's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Guingamp 1.37 PPG, Bastia 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bastia win broke the near-deadlock. Guingamp (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward. Bastia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.28 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.