Guingamp 2-1 Auxerre – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Guingamp at 38%, yet in-form Auxerre provide a compelling counter-argument — this Guingamp vs Auxerre fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

Stade du Roudourou plays host to Guingamp versus Auxerre in Ligue 2 (matchday 13). Kick-off: Monday 6 November 2023 at 19:45 UK time.

Form

Guingamp (all games): 3W 5D 2L across their last 10 — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W D D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

At home, Guingamp have gone 5W 4D 1L in their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Guingamp are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Auxerre have collected 1.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: W W W D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Auxerre have gone 5W 3D 2L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Auxerre are 0.50 PPG clear of Guingamp over their recent games (1.90 vs 1.40). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, Guingamp edge it 1 wins to 0, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 5 Feb 2022, ended Guingamp 1–1 Auxerre — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Data

Guingamp goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 50 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).

Auxerre goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 50 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guingamp 52% versus Auxerre 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guingamp 48% | Auxerre 50%). Note also that Auxerre surrender HT leads in 31% of cases while Guingamp recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 36% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 1.49 xG and Auxerre 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 1.170 / defence 0.960 | Auxerre attack 1.377 / defence 0.998. League average goals — home 1.277 / away 1.125. Auxerre have an above-average attack rating of 1.377, which lifts their away xG to 1.49. Data: built from Guingamp's last 50 games and Auxerre's last 12.

Result probabilities: Guingamp 38% | Draw 25% | Auxerre 37%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 2.66 | Draw 4.00 | Auxerre 2.67. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.49 / 1.49) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Guingamp are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Auxerre (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Guingamp if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.98 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Guingamp's last 10 home games and Auxerre's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Guingamp 50% (last 10 home games) | Auxerre 70% (last 10 away games).

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