Grenoble 1-1 Rodez – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Rodez at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Grenoble vs Rodez encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade des Alpes plays host to Grenoble versus Rodez in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 36. Kick-off: Friday 19 May 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Grenoble have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 4W 0D 6L. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Grenoble at Stade des Alpes this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Rodez's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W W D L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Rodez have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Rodez are 0.80 PPG clear of Grenoble in recent Ligue 2 fixtures (2.00 vs 1.20). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Grenoble lead 1W to 0W over the last 3 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 5 Nov 2022, ended 1–0 with Grenoble winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Grenoble goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
Rodez goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Grenoble 29% | Rodez 40%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Grenoble 32% | Rodez 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Grenoble 0.97 xG and Rodez 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Grenoble attack 0.853 / defence 0.881 | Rodez attack 1.083 / defence 0.877. League average goals — home 1.297 / away 1.083. Data: 73 Grenoble games / 73 Rodez games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Grenoble 33% | Draw 31% | Rodez 36%. Fair-value odds: Grenoble 3.03 | Draw 3.23 | Rodez 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Rodez as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rodez if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.00 combined xG gives a 32% probability to Under 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates corroborate: Grenoble 30% | Rodez 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Grenoble vs Rodez | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Stade des Alpes • Kick-off: Friday 19 May 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Grenoble 33% | Draw 31% | Rodez 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 40% | xG Grenoble 0.97 / Rodez 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Grenoble attack 0.853 / def 0.881 | Rodez attack 1.083 / def 0.877 | league avg home 1.297 / away 1.083 • Poisson stance: Rodez (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Grenoble xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Rodez xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Grenoble vs Rodez kick off?
Grenoble vs Rodez kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 19 May 2023 at Stade des Alpes.
What was the final score in Grenoble vs Rodez?
Grenoble 1 - 1 Rodez.
Where is Grenoble vs Rodez being played?
The match is being played at Stade des Alpes.
What competition is Grenoble vs Rodez part of?
Grenoble vs Rodez is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Grenoble vs Rodez?
Our statistical model gives Grenoble a 33% chance of winning, Rodez a 36% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Rodez the favourite.
Will both teams score in Grenoble vs Rodez?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Grenoble and Rodez will score (BTTS).
Will Grenoble vs Rodez have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Grenoble and Rodez?
Record (3 meetings): Grenoble 1W | Draws 2 | Rodez 0W.
What form are Grenoble and Rodez in?
Grenoble (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Rodez (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Grenoble's attack at 0.85x the league average against Rodez's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 0.97 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Rodez's attack (1.08x) against Grenoble's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 73/73 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (15.3%), 0-1 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rodez Win
33%
3.04
31%
3.23
36%
2.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Grenoble xG
Total xG
2.00
1.03
Rodez xG
3.04
33%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
2.76
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.50
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
38%
2.64
Win to Nil
12%
8.54
14%
7.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.5 | 13.9 | 7.2 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 13.5 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Grenoble vs Rodez?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Grenoble and Rodez expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Grenoble and 1.03 for Rodez, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Grenoble vs Rodez?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Grenoble come into this having played 73 games, going 26W 16D 31L for 1.29 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-L.
On the other side, Rodez sit at 1.16 PPG from 73 outings (20W 25D 28L), a run that reads W-W-D-L-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.29 PPG for Grenoble against 1.16 for Rodez. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Grenoble's home form reads 16W 9D 11L across 36 games on their own ground, a 1.58 PPG return.
Away from home, Rodez have taken 1.17 points per game from 36 outings (11W 9D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Grenoble come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Grenoble are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Rodez are on 0.92 scored and 1.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Grenoble have seen both teams score in 29% of their recent games.
Defensively: Grenoble have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 73 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Grenoble
Current Season
Rodez
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Grenoble and Rodez in coming into this match?
Grenoble have gone 26W 16D 31L in their last 73 games (1.29 PPG), while Rodez have gone 20W 25D 28L in their last 73 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Grenoble at home or Rodez away?
Grenoble's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Grenoble at home: 1.58 PPG; Rodez away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Grenoble or Rodez been keeping clean sheets recently?
Grenoble have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Rodez in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 6 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Grenoble have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Rodez — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Grenoble
3
Draws
3
Rodez
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Grenoble and Rodez?
From 10 meetings on record, Grenoble have won 4, Rodez have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Grenoble and Rodez last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2026, when Rodez 1-0 Grenoble.
Who has won more matches between Grenoble and Rodez?
Grenoble have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Grenoble see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Rodez see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Grenoble 39%, Rodez 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Grenoble and 33% for Rodez.
On the defensive side: Grenoble keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Rodez in 33%; Grenoble have failed to score in 33% of games; Rodez in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Grenoble home games / Rodez away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Grenoble play Rodez?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Grenoble's recent matches and 33% of Rodez's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Grenoble vs Rodez usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Grenoble's recent games and 33% of Rodez's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Grenoble and Rodez share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Grenoble and Rodez finished level at 1-1 at Stade des Alpes, Regular Season - 36, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Grenoble 0.97 xG and Rodez 1.03 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Grenoble attack 0.85 / defence 0.88 against Rodez attack 1.08 / defence 0.88, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Grenoble 33% | Draw 31% | Rodez 36%, with Rodez to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 30% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Grenoble 32%, Rodez 29%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 34%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Grenoble's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Rodez's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Grenoble 1.29 PPG, Rodez 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.