Grenoble 0-0 Rodez – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Grenoble at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Grenoble vs Rodez fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade des Alpes plays host to Grenoble versus Rodez in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off: Saturday 12 March 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Grenoble have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Grenoble, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Grenoble at Stade des Alpes this season: 5W 0D 5L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Grenoble are significantly better at Stade des Alpes than their overall form suggests.
Rodez's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 0W 5D 5L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Rodez, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Rodez have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.70 PPG for Grenoble against 0.50 for Rodez. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Grenoble lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Sep 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Grenoble goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Rodez goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Grenoble 33% | Rodez 33%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Grenoble 37% | Rodez 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Grenoble 1.07 xG and Rodez 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Grenoble attack 0.810 / defence 1.323 | Rodez attack 0.763 / defence 1.330. League average goals — home 0.993 / away 0.955. Rodez bring a strong defensive rating of 1.330 — this is suppressing Grenoble's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 27 Grenoble games / 27 Rodez games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Grenoble 38% | Draw 30% | Rodez 32%. Fair-value odds: Grenoble 2.63 | Draw 3.33 | Rodez 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Grenoble as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Grenoble if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.03 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates corroborate: Grenoble 50% | Rodez 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Grenoble vs Rodez | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stade des Alpes • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Mar 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Grenoble 38% | Draw 30% | Rodez 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 41% | xG Grenoble 1.07 / Rodez 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Grenoble attack 0.810 / def 1.323 | Rodez attack 0.763 / def 1.330 | league avg home 0.993 / away 0.955 • Poisson stance: Grenoble (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Grenoble xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Rodez xG
41%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Grenoble vs Rodez kick off?
Grenoble vs Rodez kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 12 March 2022 at Stade des Alpes.
What was the final score in Grenoble vs Rodez?
Grenoble 0 - 0 Rodez.
Where is Grenoble vs Rodez being played?
The match is being played at Stade des Alpes.
What competition is Grenoble vs Rodez part of?
Grenoble vs Rodez is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Grenoble vs Rodez?
Our statistical model gives Grenoble a 38% chance of winning, Rodez a 32% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Grenoble the favourite.
Will both teams score in Grenoble vs Rodez?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Grenoble and Rodez will score (BTTS).
Will Grenoble vs Rodez have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Grenoble and Rodez?
Record (1 meetings): Grenoble 0W | Draws 1 | Rodez 0W.
What form are Grenoble and Rodez in?
Grenoble (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. Rodez (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Grenoble's attack at 0.81x the league average against Rodez's defence at 1.33x — combine the two and it projects 1.07 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Rodez's attack (0.76x) against Grenoble's defence (1.32x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.8%), 1-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Grenoble Win
38%
2.66
30%
3.28
32%
3.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Grenoble xG
Total xG
2.03
0.96
Rodez xG
2.66
38%
Home win
3.28
30%
Draw
3.13
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.46
59%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
34%
2.92
Win to Nil
14%
6.98
11%
9.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.1 | 12.6 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.0 | 13.5 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 7.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Grenoble vs Rodez?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Grenoble and Rodez expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Grenoble and 0.96 for Rodez, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Grenoble vs Rodez?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Grenoble come into this having played 27 games, going 8W 4D 15L for 1.04 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-W. The sample for Grenoble is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Rodez sit at 1.11 PPG from 27 outings (7W 9D 11L), a run that reads D-L-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Rodez is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.04 PPG for Grenoble against 1.11 for Rodez. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Grenoble's home form reads 6W 1D 6L across 13 games on their own ground, a 1.46 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.04 PPG overall — Grenoble are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Rodez have taken 1.15 points per game from 13 outings (4W 3D 6L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Grenoble are averaging 0.78 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Rodez are on 0.85 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Defensively: Rodez in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 27 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Grenoble
Blended
Rodez
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Grenoble and Rodez in coming into this match?
Grenoble have gone 8W 4D 15L in their last 27 games (1.04 PPG), while Rodez have gone 7W 9D 11L in their last 27 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Grenoble at home or Rodez away?
Grenoble's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Grenoble at home: 1.46 PPG; Rodez away: 1.15 PPG.
Have Grenoble or Rodez been keeping clean sheets recently?
Grenoble have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Rodez in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 6 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Grenoble have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Rodez — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Grenoble
3
Draws
3
Rodez
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Grenoble and Rodez?
From 10 meetings on record, Grenoble have won 4, Rodez have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Grenoble and Rodez last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2026, when Rodez 1-0 Grenoble.
Who has won more matches between Grenoble and Rodez?
Grenoble have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Grenoble are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Rodez are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Grenoble 38%, Rodez 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Grenoble) and 31% (Rodez).
On the defensive side: Grenoble keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Rodez in 31%; Grenoble have failed to score in 31% of games; Rodez in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Grenoble home games / Rodez away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Grenoble play Rodez?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Grenoble's recent matches and 38% of Rodez's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Grenoble vs Rodez usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Grenoble's recent games and 31% of Rodez's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Grenoble and Rodez tend to score early?
Grenoble have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Rodez in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Grenoble's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade des Alpes, Regular Season - 28, as Grenoble and Rodez drew 0-0 in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Grenoble 1.07 xG and Rodez 0.96 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Grenoble fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Rodez landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Grenoble attack 0.81 / defence 1.32 against Rodez attack 0.76 / defence 1.33, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Grenoble 38% | Draw 30% | Rodez 32%, with Grenoble to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Grenoble 37%, Rodez 30%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Grenoble's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Rodez's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Grenoble 1.04 PPG, Rodez 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Grenoble (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line. Rodez (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.