Grenoble 1-0 Niort – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Niort at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Grenoble vs Niort encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Grenoble and Niort meet at Stade des Alpes in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 22. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 15 February 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Grenoble have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Grenoble, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Grenoble's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at Stade des Alpes this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Grenoble are significantly better at Stade des Alpes than their overall form suggests.
Niort's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W W W D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Niort, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Niort's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Niort are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Grenoble 0W, Niort 1W, 0D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 Aug 2021, ended 0–1 with Niort winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Grenoble — key trading statistics (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
Niort — key trading statistics (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 39% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Grenoble 35% | Niort 35%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Grenoble 39% | Niort 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Grenoble 1.16 xG and Niort 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Grenoble attack 0.909 / defence 1.376 | Niort attack 0.986 / defence 1.284. League average goals — home 0.997 / away 1.023. Niort bring a strong defensive rating of 1.284 — this is suppressing Grenoble's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 23 Grenoble games / 23 Niort games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Grenoble 30% | Draw 29% | Niort 41%. Fair-value odds: Grenoble 3.33 | Draw 3.45 | Niort 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Niort at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Niort if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.55 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Grenoble 50% | Niort 40%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Grenoble vs Niort | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stade des Alpes • Kick-off: Tuesday 15 Feb 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Grenoble 30% | Draw 29% | Niort 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 53% | xG Grenoble 1.16 / Niort 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Grenoble attack 0.909 / def 1.376 | Niort attack 0.986 / def 1.284 | league avg home 0.997 / away 1.023 • Poisson stance: Niort (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Grenoble xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Niort xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Grenoble vs Niort kick off?
Grenoble vs Niort kicked off at 18:00 on Tuesday 15 February 2022 at Stade des Alpes.
What was the final score in Grenoble vs Niort?
Grenoble 1 - 0 Niort.
Where is Grenoble vs Niort being played?
The match is being played at Stade des Alpes.
What competition is Grenoble vs Niort part of?
Grenoble vs Niort is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Grenoble vs Niort?
Our statistical model gives Grenoble a 30% chance of winning, Niort a 41% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Niort the favourite.
Will both teams score in Grenoble vs Niort?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Grenoble and Niort will score (BTTS).
Will Grenoble vs Niort have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Grenoble and Niort?
Record (1 meetings): Grenoble 0W | Draws 0 | Niort 1W.
What form are Grenoble and Niort in?
Grenoble (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Niort (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Grenoble's attack rating (0.91) and Niort's defence rating (1.28), the model arrives at 1.16 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Niort's attack (0.99x) against Grenoble's defence (1.38x) — and the away total comes out at 1.39.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.4%), 0-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Niort Win
30%
3.32
29%
3.43
41%
2.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Grenoble xG
Total xG
2.55
1.39
Niort xG
3.32
30%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
2.45
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
25%
4.01
31%
3.20
Win to Nil
8%
13.32
13%
7.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 10.8 | 7.5 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.6 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.3 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Grenoble vs Niort?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Grenoble and Niort expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Grenoble and 1.39 for Niort, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Grenoble vs Niort?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Grenoble come into this having played 23 games, going 6W 4D 13L for 0.96 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-L. The sample for Grenoble is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Niort sit at 1.52 PPG from 23 outings (10W 5D 8L), a run that reads W-W-W-D-L across their last five. The sample for Niort is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Niort carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.56 PPG clear of Grenoble — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Grenoble's home form reads 5W 1D 5L across 11 games on their own ground, a 1.45 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.96 PPG overall — Grenoble are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Niort have taken 1.27 points per game from 11 outings (4W 2D 5L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Grenoble are averaging 0.78 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Niort are on 1.22 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Defensively: Niort in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 23 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Grenoble
Blended
Niort
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Grenoble and Niort in coming into this match?
Grenoble have gone 6W 4D 13L in their last 23 games (0.96 PPG), while Niort have gone 10W 5D 8L in their last 23 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Grenoble at home or Niort away?
Grenoble's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Grenoble at home: 1.45 PPG; Niort away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Grenoble or Niort been keeping clean sheets recently?
Grenoble have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Niort in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Grenoble have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Grenoble won 0-3 on 15 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Grenoble have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Niort — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Grenoble
0
Draws
1
Niort
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Grenoble and Niort?
From 4 meetings on record, Grenoble have won 3, Niort have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Grenoble and Niort last play each other?
They last met on 29 April 2023, when Grenoble 2-0 Niort.
Who has won more matches between Grenoble and Niort?
Grenoble have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Grenoble are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Niort are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Grenoble 46%, Niort 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Grenoble) and 64% (Niort). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Grenoble keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Grenoble have failed to score in 27% of games; Niort in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Grenoble home games / Niort away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Grenoble play Niort?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Grenoble's recent matches and 46% of Niort's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Grenoble vs Niort usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Grenoble's matches and 64% of Niort's.
Do Grenoble and Niort tend to score early?
Grenoble have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Niort in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Grenoble defy the odds to beat Niort 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Grenoble beat Niort 1-0 at Stade des Alpes, Regular Season - 22, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Grenoble 1.16 xG and Niort 1.39 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Niort landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Grenoble attack 0.91 / defence 1.38 against Niort attack 0.99 / defence 1.28, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Grenoble 30% | Draw 29% | Niort 41%, with Niort to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Grenoble win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Grenoble 39%, Niort 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 35%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Grenoble's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Niort's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Niort arrived the stronger side — 1.52 PPG against 0.96. Form was overturned, with Grenoble winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Grenoble (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line. Niort (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.