Estac Troyes 0-1 Guingamp – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Estac Troyes at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Estac Troyes face Guingamp.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Guingamp make the trip to Stade de l'Aube to face Estac Troyes in Ligue 2 (matchday 27). The match kicks off on Friday 14 March 2025 at 19:00 UK time.
Current Form
Estac Troyes's record over their last 10 games: 5W 0D 5L (1.50 PPG). Last five: W L L W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
In front of their own supporters, Estac Troyes have posted 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Guingamp have collected 1.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W L D L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Guingamp's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 road games (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for Estac Troyes, 2 for Guingamp and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.7 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 16 Aug 2024, ended Estac Troyes 0–4 Guingamp — a Guingamp win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Estac Troyes — key trading statistics (last 64 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Guingamp — key trading statistics (last 64 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estac Troyes 44% versus Guingamp 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Estac Troyes 50% | Guingamp 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estac Troyes 1.36 xG and Guingamp 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estac Troyes attack 0.990 / defence 0.817 | Guingamp attack 1.174 / defence 1.050. League average goals — home 1.303 / away 1.070. Data: built from Estac Troyes's last 64 games and Guingamp's last 64.
Result probabilities: Estac Troyes 44% | Draw 27% | Guingamp 28%. Fair-value odds: Estac Troyes 2.26 | Draw 3.66 | Guingamp 3.52. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Estac Troyes are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Estac Troyes if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.38 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 52%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Estac Troyes 10% (last 10 home games) | Guingamp 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estac Troyes vs Guingamp | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 27 | Venue: Stade de l'Aube • Kick-off: Friday 14 March 2025 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estac Troyes 44% | Draw 27% | Guingamp 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Estac Troyes 1.36 / Guingamp 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Estac Troyes attack 0.990 / def 0.817 | Guingamp attack 1.174 / def 1.050 | league avg home 1.303 / away 1.070 • Poisson stance: Estac Troyes (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Estac Troyes xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Guingamp xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Estac Troyes vs Guingamp FAQs
What time does Estac Troyes vs Guingamp kick off?
Estac Troyes vs Guingamp kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 14 March 2025 at Stade de l'Aube.
What was the final score in Estac Troyes vs Guingamp?
Estac Troyes 0 - 1 Guingamp.
Where is Estac Troyes vs Guingamp being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Aube.
What competition is Estac Troyes vs Guingamp part of?
Estac Troyes vs Guingamp is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 27) (France).
Who is favourite to win Estac Troyes vs Guingamp?
Our statistical model gives Estac Troyes a 44% chance of winning, Guingamp a 28% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Estac Troyes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Estac Troyes vs Guingamp?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Estac Troyes and Guingamp will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Estac Troyes vs Guingamp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Estac Troyes's attack at 0.99x the league average against Guingamp's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.36 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Guingamp's attack (1.17x) against Estac Troyes's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from Estac Troyes's last 64 games and Guingamp's last 64 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 1-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Estac Troyes Win
44%
2.26
27%
3.66
28%
3.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Estac Troyes xG
Total xG
2.38
1.03
Guingamp xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
3.52
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
36%
2.79
26%
3.88
Win to Nil
16%
6.29
7%
13.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 9.5 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 12.9 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 8.7 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Estac Troyes vs Guingamp Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Estac Troyes vs Guingamp?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Estac Troyes and Guingamp expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Estac Troyes and 1.03 for Guingamp, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Estac Troyes vs Guingamp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Estac Troyes's recent record stands at 19W 18D 27L from 64 games, a 1.17 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-W in the last five.
Guingamp, meanwhile, have gone 26W 15D 23L across 64 games — 1.45 PPG, with W-L-D-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.17 PPG for Estac Troyes against 1.45 for Guingamp. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Estac Troyes have managed 12W 7D 12L from their last 31 home games — 1.39 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Guingamp's away record stands at 13W 6D 12L across their last 31 away games, a 1.45 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Estac Troyes are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Guingamp are on 1.36 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Defensively: Guingamp in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 64 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estac Troyes
Blended
Guingamp
Blended
Estac Troyes (Home) vs Guingamp (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Estac Troyes
Blended
Guingamp
Blended
❓ Estac Troyes vs Guingamp Form FAQs
What form are Estac Troyes and Guingamp in coming into this match?
Estac Troyes have gone 19W 18D 27L in their last 64 games (1.17 PPG), while Guingamp have gone 26W 15D 23L in their last 64 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Estac Troyes at home or Guingamp away?
Guingamp's away record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Estac Troyes at home: 1.39 PPG; Guingamp away: 1.45 PPG.
Have Estac Troyes or Guingamp been keeping clean sheets recently?
Estac Troyes have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Guingamp in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between Estac Troyes and Guingamp, the earliest from November 2023. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent was on 24 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Guingamp won Guingamp 4-0 Estac Troyes on 16 Aug 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Estac Troyes have gone 1W 0D 2L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Guingamp — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Estac Troyes
1
Draws
4
Guingamp
Recent Meetings
❓ Estac Troyes vs Guingamp H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Estac Troyes and Guingamp?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Estac Troyes have won 1, Guingamp have won 4, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Estac Troyes and Guingamp last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 January 2026: Guingamp 1-0 Estac Troyes.
Who has won more matches between Estac Troyes and Guingamp?
Guingamp have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Estac Troyes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Estac Troyes 48%, Guingamp 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Estac Troyes) and 45% (Guingamp).
On the defensive side: Guingamp in 39%; Estac Troyes have failed to score in 32% of games; Guingamp in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estac Troyes home games / Guingamp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Estac Troyes vs Guingamp Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Estac Troyes and Guingamp matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Estac Troyes's recent matches and 45% of Guingamp's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Estac Troyes and Guingamp matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Estac Troyes's recent games and 45% of Guingamp's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Estac Troyes and Guingamp matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Estac Troyes's recent matches and 68% of Guingamp's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Guingamp defy the odds to beat Estac Troyes 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Guingamp beat Estac Troyes 0-1 at Stade de l'Aube, Regular Season - 27, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Estac Troyes 1.36 xG and Guingamp 1.03 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Estac Troyes fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estac Troyes attack 0.99 / defence 0.82 against Guingamp attack 1.17 / defence 1.05, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Estac Troyes 44% | Draw 27% | Guingamp 28%, with Estac Troyes to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Guingamp win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estac Troyes 50%, Guingamp 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Estac Troyes's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Guingamp's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Estac Troyes 1.17 PPG, Guingamp 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Guingamp win broke the near-deadlock. Estac Troyes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward. Guingamp (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More Ligue 2 fixtures — matchday 27
All Ligue 2 fixtures →
More French football predictions →