Estac Troyes 3-0 Caen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Estac Troyes (49%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Estac Troyes face Caen.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Estac Troyes and Caen meet at Stade de l'Aube in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 1 February 2025 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Estac Troyes have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Estac Troyes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade de l'Aube, Estac Troyes have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Caen's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Caen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Caen have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in Estac Troyes's favour (1.40 vs 0.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Estac Troyes 2W, Caen 0W, 1D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.3 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 Oct 2024, ended 1–0 with Estac Troyes winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Estac Troyes half-time and goal-timing data (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Caen half-time and goal-timing data (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estac Troyes 47% versus Caen 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Estac Troyes 52% | Caen 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estac Troyes 1.45 xG and Caen 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estac Troyes attack 0.916 / defence 0.954 | Caen attack 0.990 / defence 1.225. League average goals — home 1.296 / away 1.009. Caen bring a strong defensive rating of 1.225 — this is suppressing Estac Troyes's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 58 Estac Troyes games / 58 Caen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Estac Troyes 49% | Draw 27% | Caen 25%. Fair-value odds: Estac Troyes 2.04 | Draw 3.70 | Caen 4.00. Estac Troyes hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Estac Troyes as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Estac Troyes if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.41 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Estac Troyes 20% | Caen 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estac Troyes vs Caen | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stade de l'Aube • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Feb 2025, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estac Troyes 49% | Draw 27% | Caen 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 47% | xG Estac Troyes 1.45 / Caen 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Estac Troyes attack 0.916 / def 0.954 | Caen attack 0.990 / def 1.225 | league avg home 1.296 / away 1.009 • Poisson stance: Estac Troyes (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Estac Troyes xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Caen xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Estac Troyes vs Caen kick off?
Estac Troyes vs Caen kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 1 February 2025 at Stade de l'Aube.
What was the final score in Estac Troyes vs Caen?
Estac Troyes 3 - 0 Caen.
Where is Estac Troyes vs Caen being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Aube.
What competition is Estac Troyes vs Caen part of?
Estac Troyes vs Caen is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Estac Troyes vs Caen?
Our statistical model gives Estac Troyes a 49% chance of winning, Caen a 25% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Estac Troyes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Estac Troyes vs Caen?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Estac Troyes and Caen will score (BTTS).
Will Estac Troyes vs Caen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Estac Troyes and Caen?
Record (3 meetings): Estac Troyes 2W | Draws 1 | Caen 0W.
What form are Estac Troyes and Caen in?
Estac Troyes (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. Caen (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Estac Troyes's attack rating (0.92) and Caen's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 1.45 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Caen's attack (0.99x) against Estac Troyes's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.5%), 0-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Estac Troyes Win
49%
2.05
27%
3.77
25%
4.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Estac Troyes xG
Total xG
2.41
0.95
Caen xG
2.05
49%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
4.05
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
23%
4.28
Win to Nil
19%
5.32
6%
17.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 8.6 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 12.5 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.1 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Estac Troyes vs Caen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Estac Troyes and Caen expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Estac Troyes and 0.95 for Caen, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Estac Troyes vs Caen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Estac Troyes come into this having played 58 games, going 15W 18D 25L for 1.09 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-L. The sample for Estac Troyes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Caen sit at 1.26 PPG from 58 outings (21W 10D 27L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Caen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.09 PPG for Estac Troyes against 1.26 for Caen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Estac Troyes's home form reads 10W 7D 11L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.32 PPG return.
Away from home, Caen have taken 0.93 points per game from 28 outings (7W 5D 16L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Estac Troyes are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Caen are on 1.21 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 58 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estac Troyes
Blended
Caen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Estac Troyes and Caen in coming into this match?
Estac Troyes have gone 15W 18D 25L in their last 58 games (1.09 PPG), while Caen have gone 21W 10D 27L in their last 58 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Estac Troyes at home or Caen away?
Estac Troyes's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Estac Troyes at home: 1.32 PPG; Caen away: 0.93 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Estac Troyes have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Estac Troyes won 3-0 on 1 Feb 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Estac Troyes have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Caen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Estac Troyes
1
Draws
0
Caen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Estac Troyes and Caen?
From 4 meetings on record, Estac Troyes have won 3, Caen have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Estac Troyes and Caen last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2025, when Estac Troyes 3-0 Caen.
Who has won more matches between Estac Troyes and Caen?
Estac Troyes have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Estac Troyes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Caen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Estac Troyes 54%, Caen 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for Estac Troyes and 68% for Caen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Estac Troyes have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estac Troyes home games / Caen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Estac Troyes play Caen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Estac Troyes's games and 64% of Caen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Estac Troyes vs Caen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Estac Troyes's matches and 68% of Caen's.
Do Estac Troyes and Caen tend to score early?
Estac Troyes have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Caen in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Estac Troyes run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Caen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Estac Troyes beat Caen 3-0 at Stade de l'Aube, Regular Season - 21, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Estac Troyes 1.45 xG and Caen 0.95 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Estac Troyes beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Caen landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estac Troyes attack 0.92 / defence 0.95 against Caen attack 0.99 / defence 1.23, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Estac Troyes 49% | Draw 27% | Caen 25%, with Estac Troyes to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estac Troyes 52%, Caen 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Estac Troyes's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.
Caen's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Estac Troyes 1.09 PPG, Caen 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Estac Troyes win broke the near-deadlock. Estac Troyes (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.36 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Caen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.