Estac Troyes 3-1 Annecy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Estac Troyes at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Estac Troyes vs Annecy encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Annecy make the trip to Stade de l'Aube to face Estac Troyes in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 8. The match kicks off on Friday 26 September 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Estac Troyes have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: W L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Estac Troyes have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Estac Troyes's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Stade de l'Aube this term (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade de l'Aube. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Annecy's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W L D W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Annecy have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Annecy have posted 4W 0D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Estac Troyes's favour (2.20 vs 1.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Estac Troyes have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Annecy in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Estac Troyes lead 0W to 2W over the last 4 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 4 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 20 Jan 2025, ended 0–1 with Annecy winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Estac Troyes goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (41 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 19% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 42% of games.
Annecy goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (41 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estac Troyes 27% versus Annecy 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Estac Troyes 49% | Annecy 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estac Troyes 1.80 xG and Annecy 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estac Troyes attack 1.449 / defence 0.818 | Annecy attack 0.936 / defence 0.977. League average goals — home 1.273 / away 1.233. Estac Troyes carry an above-average attack strength of 1.449 — their λ of 1.80 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 41 Estac Troyes games / 41 Annecy games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Estac Troyes 58% | Draw 23% | Annecy 20%. Fair-value odds: Estac Troyes 1.72 | Draw 4.35 | Annecy 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Estac Troyes (58%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
Annecy lead the H2H ledger, but Estac Troyes carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, Estac Troyes are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.75 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 1.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. This conflicts with form data: Estac Troyes 30% | Annecy 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estac Troyes vs Annecy | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stade de l'Aube • Kick-off: Friday 26 Sep 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estac Troyes 58% | Draw 23% | Annecy 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 51% | xG Estac Troyes 1.80 / Annecy 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Estac Troyes attack 1.449 / def 0.818 | Annecy attack 0.936 / def 0.977 | league avg home 1.273 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Estac Troyes (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Estac Troyes xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Annecy xG
51%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Estac Troyes vs Annecy kick off?
Estac Troyes vs Annecy kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 26 September 2025 at Stade de l'Aube.
What was the final score in Estac Troyes vs Annecy?
Estac Troyes 3 - 1 Annecy.
Where is Estac Troyes vs Annecy being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Aube.
What competition is Estac Troyes vs Annecy part of?
Estac Troyes vs Annecy is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Estac Troyes vs Annecy?
Our statistical model gives Estac Troyes a 58% chance of winning, Annecy a 20% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Estac Troyes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Estac Troyes vs Annecy?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Estac Troyes and Annecy will score (BTTS).
Will Estac Troyes vs Annecy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Estac Troyes and Annecy?
Record (4 meetings): Estac Troyes 0W | Draws 2 | Annecy 2W.
What form are Estac Troyes and Annecy in?
Estac Troyes (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Annecy (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Estac Troyes's attacking strength (1.45x league average) is weighed against Annecy's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.80. Flip it around — Annecy's attack (0.94x) against Estac Troyes's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.4%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Estac Troyes Win
58%
1.74
23%
4.35
20%
5.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Estac Troyes xG
Total xG
2.75
0.94
Annecy xG
1.74
58%
Home win
4.35
23%
Draw
5.13
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
17%
6.06
Win to Nil
22%
4.47
3%
31.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.6 | 10.9 | 5.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.8 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Estac Troyes vs Annecy?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Estac Troyes and Annecy expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Estac Troyes and 0.94 for Annecy, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Estac Troyes vs Annecy?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 41 outings, Estac Troyes have picked up 1.46 PPG on a 18W 6D 17L record — W-L-W-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Estac Troyes, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Annecy's form line: 16W 11D 14L from 41 games, 1.44 PPG, last five W-L-D-W-L. It's still early in the season for Annecy, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.46 PPG for Estac Troyes against 1.44 for Annecy. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Estac Troyes have posted 1.76 PPG from 21 outings (11W 4D 6L).
On the road, Annecy have gone 7W 5D 9L from 21 away games — 1.24 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Estac Troyes come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Estac Troyes are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Annecy are on 1.22 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Estac Troyes have seen both teams score in 27% of their recent games.
Defensively: Estac Troyes have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games; Annecy in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estac Troyes
Early Season
Annecy
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Estac Troyes and Annecy in coming into this match?
Estac Troyes have gone 18W 6D 17L in their last 41 games (1.46 PPG), while Annecy have gone 16W 11D 14L in their last 41 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Estac Troyes at home or Annecy away?
Estac Troyes's home record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Estac Troyes at home: 1.76 PPG; Annecy away: 1.24 PPG.
Have Estac Troyes or Annecy been keeping clean sheets recently?
Estac Troyes have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Annecy in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since September 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 16 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Estac Troyes have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Estac Troyes have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Annecy — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Estac Troyes
2
Draws
2
Annecy
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Estac Troyes and Annecy?
From 6 meetings on record, Estac Troyes have won 2, Annecy have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Estac Troyes and Annecy last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2026, when Annecy 1-2 Estac Troyes.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Estac Troyes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 19% (Estac Troyes) and 43% (Annecy) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Estac Troyes) and 38% (Annecy).
On the defensive side: Estac Troyes keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; Annecy in 33%; Estac Troyes have failed to score in 43% of games; Annecy in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estac Troyes home games / Annecy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Estac Troyes play Annecy?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 19% of Estac Troyes's recent matches and 43% of Annecy's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Estac Troyes vs Annecy usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Estac Troyes's recent games and 38% of Annecy's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Estac Troyes and Annecy tend to score early?
Estac Troyes have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Annecy in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Estac Troyes cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Annecy.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Estac Troyes beat Annecy 3-1 at Stade de l'Aube, Regular Season - 8, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Estac Troyes 1.80 xG and Annecy 0.94 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Estac Troyes beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estac Troyes attack 1.45 / defence 0.82 against Annecy attack 0.94 / defence 0.98, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Estac Troyes 58% | Draw 23% | Annecy 20%, with Estac Troyes to win its most likely call at 58%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estac Troyes 49%, Annecy 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 35%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Estac Troyes's trading profile (41 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 27% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Annecy's trading profile (41 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Estac Troyes 1.46 PPG, Annecy 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Estac Troyes win broke the near-deadlock. Estac Troyes (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm. Annecy (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.48 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.