Dunkerque 1-2 Niort – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 40% as Dunkerque take on Niort.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Dunkerque host Niort at Stade Marcel-Tribut in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 7 August 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Dunkerque — All Games: 0W 1D 1L from 2 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Dunkerque have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Niort have recorded 0W 1D 1L from 2 outings — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L. Their scoring rate of 0.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Niort have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Dunkerque at 0.50 PPG versus Niort's 0.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dunkerque 0.89 xG and Niort 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dunkerque attack 0.968 / defence 1.113 | Niort attack 0.690 / defence 1.019. League average goals — home 0.900 / away 1.341. Data: 2 Dunkerque games / 2 Niort games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Dunkerque 26% | Draw 40% | Niort 34%. Fair-value odds: Dunkerque 3.85 | Draw 2.50 | Niort 2.94. The draw (40%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 1.92. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.92 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 40% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 26% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.92 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 30% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dunkerque vs Niort | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stade Marcel-Tribut • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Aug 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dunkerque 26% | Draw 40% | Niort 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 42% | xG Dunkerque 0.89 / Niort 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Dunkerque attack 0.968 / def 1.113 | Niort attack 0.690 / def 1.019 | league avg home 0.900 / away 1.341 • Poisson stance: Draw (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Dunkerque xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Niort xG
42%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dunkerque vs Niort kick off?
Dunkerque vs Niort kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 7 August 2021 at Stade Marcel-Tribut.
What was the final score in Dunkerque vs Niort?
Dunkerque 1 - 2 Niort.
Where is Dunkerque vs Niort being played?
The match is being played at Stade Marcel-Tribut.
What competition is Dunkerque vs Niort part of?
Dunkerque vs Niort is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Dunkerque vs Niort?
Our statistical model gives Dunkerque a 26% chance of winning, Niort a 34% chance, and a 40% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Dunkerque vs Niort?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Dunkerque and Niort will score (BTTS).
Will Dunkerque vs Niort have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dunkerque and Niort?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Dunkerque and Niort in?
Dunkerque (all comps): 0W-1D-1L in 2 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L. Niort (all comps): 0W-1D-1L in 2 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Dunkerque's attack at 0.97x the league average against Niort's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 0.89 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Niort's attack versus Dunkerque's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
26%
3.78
40%
2.53
34%
2.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.1%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.7%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Dunkerque xG
Total xG
1.92
1.03
Niort xG
3.78
26%
Home win
2.53
40%
Draw
2.94
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
41%
2.43
Win to Nil
9%
10.60
14%
7.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.7 | 15.1 | 7.8 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 13.4 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 6.0 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dunkerque vs Niort?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.4%.
How many goals are Dunkerque and Niort expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Dunkerque and 1.03 for Niort, a combined total of 1.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Dunkerque vs Niort?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Dunkerque's recent record stands at 0W 1D 1L from 2 games, a 0.50 PPG return, with D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Dunkerque, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Niort, meanwhile, have gone 0W 1D 1L across 2 games — 0.50 PPG, with D-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Niort, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Dunkerque on 0.50 PPG, Niort on 0.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
The Goals Picture
Dunkerque are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Niort are on 0.00 scored and 0.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dunkerque have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Niort in 0%.
Defensively: Niort in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dunkerque
Early Season
Niort
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dunkerque and Niort in coming into this match?
Dunkerque have gone 0W 1D 1L in their last 2 games (0.50 PPG), while Niort have gone 0W 1D 1L in their last 2 (0.50 PPG).
Have Dunkerque or Niort been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dunkerque have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Niort in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Dunkerque and Niort runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Dunkerque
0
Draws
2
Niort
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dunkerque and Niort?
From 2 meetings on record, Dunkerque have won 0, Niort have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Dunkerque and Niort last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2022, when Niort 2-0 Dunkerque.
Who has won more matches between Dunkerque and Niort?
Niort have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dunkerque home games / Niort away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dunkerque play Niort?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 100% of Dunkerque's recent matches and 0% of Niort's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dunkerque vs Niort usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Dunkerque's recent games and 0% of Niort's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dunkerque and Niort tend to score early?
Dunkerque have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Niort in 0% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Niort edge out Dunkerque 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Niort beat Dunkerque 1-2 at Stade Marcel-Tribut, Regular Season - 3, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dunkerque 0.89 xG and Niort 1.03 xG, a combined 1.92. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Niort outscored their 1.03 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dunkerque attack 0.97 / defence 1.11 against Niort attack 0.69 / defence 1.02, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Dunkerque 26% | Draw 40% | Niort 34%, with the draw its most likely call at 40%. The actual Niort win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dunkerque 50%, Niort 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dunkerque 0.50 PPG, Niort 0.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Niort win broke the near-deadlock. Niort scored 2 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.