Dunkerque 1-1 Boulogne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dunkerque at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dunkerque vs Boulogne fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Dunkerque host Boulogne at Stade Marcel Tribut in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 7 November 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Dunkerque — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: D L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Dunkerque, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dunkerque's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Stade Marcel Tribut this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Marcel Tribut.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Boulogne stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Boulogne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Boulogne's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 3L across 7 road games this term (1.43 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game.
On current form, Dunkerque have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Trading Patterns
Dunkerque in-play and half-time data (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games).
Boulogne in-play and half-time data (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dunkerque 47% versus Boulogne 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dunkerque 60% | Boulogne 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dunkerque 1.71 xG and Boulogne 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dunkerque attack 1.412 / defence 1.029 | Boulogne attack 0.799 / defence 0.923. League average goals — home 1.314 / away 1.189. Dunkerque carry an above-average attack strength of 1.412 — their λ of 1.71 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 47 Dunkerque games / 13 Boulogne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dunkerque 55% | Draw 24% | Boulogne 21%. Fair-value odds: Dunkerque 1.82 | Draw 4.17 | Boulogne 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Dunkerque (55%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Dunkerque at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.69 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Dunkerque 40% | Boulogne 43%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dunkerque vs Boulogne | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stade Marcel Tribut • Kick-off: Friday 7 Nov 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dunkerque 55% | Draw 24% | Boulogne 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 51% | xG Dunkerque 1.71 / Boulogne 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Dunkerque attack 1.412 / def 1.029 | Boulogne attack 0.799 / def 0.923 | league avg home 1.314 / away 1.189 • Poisson stance: Dunkerque (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Dunkerque xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Boulogne xG
51%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dunkerque vs Boulogne kick off?
Dunkerque vs Boulogne kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 7 November 2025 at Stade Marcel Tribut.
What was the final score in Dunkerque vs Boulogne?
Dunkerque 1 - 1 Boulogne.
Where is Dunkerque vs Boulogne being played?
The match is being played at Stade Marcel Tribut.
What competition is Dunkerque vs Boulogne part of?
Dunkerque vs Boulogne is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Dunkerque vs Boulogne?
Our statistical model gives Dunkerque a 55% chance of winning, Boulogne a 21% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Dunkerque the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dunkerque vs Boulogne?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Dunkerque and Boulogne will score (BTTS).
Will Dunkerque vs Boulogne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dunkerque and Boulogne?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Dunkerque and Boulogne in?
Dunkerque (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-W-W-W. Boulogne (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Dunkerque's attack rating (1.41) and Boulogne's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.71 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Boulogne's attack versus Dunkerque's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.1%), 2-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dunkerque Win
55%
1.83
24%
4.18
21%
4.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Dunkerque xG
Total xG
2.69
0.98
Boulogne xG
1.83
55%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
4.65
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
18%
5.54
Win to Nil
21%
4.87
4%
25.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 11.4 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.7 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dunkerque vs Boulogne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Dunkerque and Boulogne expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Dunkerque and 0.98 for Boulogne, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Dunkerque vs Boulogne?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Dunkerque's recent record stands at 6W 4D 5L from 15 games, a 1.47 PPG return, with D-L-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Dunkerque is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Boulogne, meanwhile, have gone 4W 2D 9L across 15 games — 0.93 PPG, with W-D-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Boulogne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Dunkerque by 0.54 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Boulogne heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Dunkerque have managed 3W 2D 2L from 7 games — 1.57 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Boulogne's away record stands at 3W 1D 3L across 7 trips, a 1.43 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 0.93 PPG overall record — Boulogne travel well.
Goals in Recent Form
Dunkerque are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Boulogne are on 1.00 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Last 15 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dunkerque
Blended
Boulogne
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dunkerque and Boulogne in coming into this match?
Dunkerque have gone 6W 4D 5L in their last 15 games (1.47 PPG), while Boulogne have gone 4W 2D 9L in their last 15 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dunkerque at home or Boulogne away?
Dunkerque's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dunkerque at home: 1.57 PPG; Boulogne away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Dunkerque or Boulogne been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dunkerque have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Boulogne in 13%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 27 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Dunkerque
1
Draws
0
Boulogne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dunkerque and Boulogne?
From 2 meetings on record, Dunkerque have won 1, Boulogne have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Dunkerque and Boulogne last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2026, when Boulogne 2-6 Dunkerque.
Who has won more matches between Dunkerque and Boulogne?
Dunkerque have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Dunkerque are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Boulogne see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dunkerque 57%, Boulogne 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Dunkerque) and 29% (Boulogne).
On the defensive side: Boulogne in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dunkerque home games / Boulogne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dunkerque play Boulogne?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Dunkerque's recent matches and 43% of Boulogne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dunkerque vs Boulogne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 71% of Dunkerque's recent games and 29% of Boulogne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dunkerque and Boulogne tend to score early?
Dunkerque have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Boulogne in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dunkerque and Boulogne share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Marcel Tribut, Regular Season - 14, as Dunkerque and Boulogne drew 1-1 in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dunkerque 1.71 xG and Boulogne 0.98 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dunkerque attack 1.41 / defence 1.03 against Boulogne attack 0.80 / defence 0.92, drawn from 47/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dunkerque 55% | Draw 24% | Boulogne 21%, with Dunkerque to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dunkerque 60%, Boulogne 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dunkerque's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Boulogne's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Dunkerque arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 0.93. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Dunkerque (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.29 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.