Dijon 2-1 Valenciennes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dijon at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dijon vs Valenciennes fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Gaston-Gérard plays host to Dijon versus Valenciennes in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off: Friday 13 January 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Dijon have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: D D W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Dijon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dijon's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Stade Gaston-Gérard this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Dijon are significantly better at Stade Gaston-Gérard than their overall form suggests.
Valenciennes's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Valenciennes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Valenciennes's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Valenciennes are 0.50 PPG clear of Dijon in recent Ligue 2 fixtures (1.20 vs 0.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Dijon lead 0W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 0.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 12 Mar 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Dijon goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Valenciennes goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 21% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dijon 54% versus Valenciennes 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dijon 54% | Valenciennes 34%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dijon 1.25 xG and Valenciennes 0.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dijon attack 1.221 / defence 0.940 | Valenciennes attack 0.692 / defence 0.924. League average goals — home 1.105 / away 1.007. Data: 56 Dijon games / 56 Valenciennes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dijon 50% | Draw 31% | Valenciennes 19%. Fair-value odds: Dijon 2.00 | Draw 3.23 | Valenciennes 5.26. Dijon hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.90. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.90 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Valenciennes's lower xG of 0.66 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Dijon as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Valenciennes (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dijon if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.90 combined xG gives a 30% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 35%. Form rates corroborate: Dijon 50% | Valenciennes 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dijon vs Valenciennes | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stade Gaston-Gérard • Kick-off: Friday 13 Jan 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dijon 50% | Draw 31% | Valenciennes 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 35% | xG Dijon 1.25 / Valenciennes 0.66 • Poisson strength factors: Dijon attack 1.221 / def 0.940 | Valenciennes attack 0.692 / def 0.924 | league avg home 1.105 / away 1.007 • Poisson stance: Dijon (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Dijon xG
Expected Goals
0.66
Valenciennes xG
35%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dijon vs Valenciennes kick off?
Dijon vs Valenciennes kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 13 January 2023 at Stade Gaston-Gérard.
What was the final score in Dijon vs Valenciennes?
Dijon 2 - 1 Valenciennes.
Where is Dijon vs Valenciennes being played?
The match is being played at Stade Gaston-Gérard.
What competition is Dijon vs Valenciennes part of?
Dijon vs Valenciennes is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Dijon vs Valenciennes?
Our statistical model gives Dijon a 50% chance of winning, Valenciennes a 19% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Dijon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dijon vs Valenciennes?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Dijon and Valenciennes will score (BTTS).
Will Dijon vs Valenciennes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dijon and Valenciennes?
Record (2 meetings): Dijon 0W | Draws 1 | Valenciennes 1W.
What form are Dijon and Valenciennes in?
Dijon (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-W-L-L. Valenciennes (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Dijon's attack rating (1.22) and Valenciennes's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.25 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Valenciennes's attack (0.69x) against Dijon's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 0.66.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (16.5%), 1-1 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dijon Win
50%
1.99
31%
3.27
19%
5.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.9%
Draw
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Dijon xG
Total xG
1.90
0.66
Valenciennes xG
1.99
50%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
5.22
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.89
65%
BTTS No
1.53
Clean Sheet
52%
1.93
29%
3.48
Win to Nil
26%
3.83
6%
18.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.9 | 9.8 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.6 | 12.2 | 4.0 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 7.6 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dijon vs Valenciennes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.0%.
How many goals are Dijon and Valenciennes expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Dijon and 0.66 for Valenciennes, a combined total of 1.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Dijon vs Valenciennes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Dijon come into this having played 56 games, going 17W 14D 25L for 1.16 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-L-L. The sample for Dijon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Valenciennes sit at 1.23 PPG from 56 outings (16W 21D 19L), a run that reads D-L-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for Valenciennes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.16 PPG for Dijon against 1.23 for Valenciennes. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Dijon's home form reads 11W 7D 10L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.43 PPG return.
Away from home, Valenciennes have taken 1.14 points per game from 28 outings (7W 11D 10L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Dijon are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Valenciennes are on 0.89 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dijon
Blended
Valenciennes
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dijon and Valenciennes in coming into this match?
Dijon have gone 17W 14D 25L in their last 56 games (1.16 PPG), while Valenciennes have gone 16W 21D 19L in their last 56 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dijon at home or Valenciennes away?
Dijon's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dijon at home: 1.43 PPG; Valenciennes away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Dijon or Valenciennes been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dijon have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Valenciennes in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dijon have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Valenciennes — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Dijon
2
Draws
1
Valenciennes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dijon and Valenciennes?
From 4 meetings on record, Dijon have won 1, Valenciennes have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Dijon and Valenciennes last play each other?
They last met on 25 February 2023, when Valenciennes 2-2 Dijon.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Dijon see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Valenciennes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dijon 46%, Valenciennes 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 46% for Dijon and 21% for Valenciennes.
On the defensive side: Dijon keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Dijon have failed to score in 29% of games; Valenciennes in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dijon home games / Valenciennes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dijon play Valenciennes?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Dijon's recent matches and 39% of Valenciennes's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dijon vs Valenciennes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Dijon's recent games and 21% of Valenciennes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dijon and Valenciennes tend to score early?
Dijon have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Valenciennes in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Dijon edge out Valenciennes 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dijon beat Valenciennes 2-1 at Stade Gaston-Gérard, Regular Season - 19, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dijon 1.25 xG and Valenciennes 0.66 xG, a combined 1.90. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dijon attack 1.22 / defence 0.94 against Valenciennes attack 0.69 / defence 0.92, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dijon 50% | Draw 31% | Valenciennes 19%, with Dijon to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dijon 54%, Valenciennes 34%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dijon's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Valenciennes's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dijon 1.16 PPG, Valenciennes 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dijon win broke the near-deadlock. Valenciennes (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.