Dijon 2-3 Saint Etienne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Saint Etienne at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dijon vs Saint Etienne encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Gaston Gerard plays host to Dijon versus Saint Etienne in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off: Monday 31 August 2026 at 18:45 UTC.
Form
Dijon (all games): 0W 2D 1L across 3 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 0.67 PPG. Last five: D L D. They are averaging 0.67 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Dijon have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Saint Etienne's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D L W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Saint Etienne have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Saint Etienne's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
On a straight form reading, Saint Etienne are the stronger side — 0.73 PPG clear of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.67). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Dijon, 1 for Saint Etienne and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Feb 2023, ended 0–2 with Saint Etienne winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Dijon goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (3 games): they score before half-time in 0% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Saint Etienne goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dijon 67% versus Saint Etienne 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dijon 0% | Saint Etienne 100%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dijon 0.74 xG and Saint Etienne 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dijon attack 0.700 / defence 1.076 | Saint Etienne attack 1.134 / defence 0.891. League average goals — home 1.185 / away 1.224. Dijon's attack strength of 0.700 is below the league average — the 0.74 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 3 Dijon games / 37 Saint Etienne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dijon 17% | Draw 30% | Saint Etienne 54%. Fair-value odds: Dijon 5.88 | Draw 3.33 | Saint Etienne 1.85. Saint Etienne hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Saint Etienne at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Saint Etienne if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.23 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates are neutral: Dijon 67% | Saint Etienne 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dijon vs Saint Etienne | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stade Gaston Gerard • Kick-off: Monday 31 Aug 2026, 18:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dijon 17% | Draw 30% | Saint Etienne 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 42% | xG Dijon 0.74 / Saint Etienne 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Dijon attack 0.700 / def 1.076 | Saint Etienne attack 1.134 / def 0.891 | league avg home 1.185 / away 1.224 • Poisson stance: Saint Etienne (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.74
Dijon xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Saint Etienne xG
42%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dijon vs Saint Etienne kick off?
Dijon vs Saint Etienne kicked off at 18:45 on Monday 31 August 2026 at Stade Gaston Gerard.
What was the final score in Dijon vs Saint Etienne?
Dijon 2 - 3 Saint Etienne.
Where is Dijon vs Saint Etienne being played?
The match is being played at Stade Gaston Gerard.
What competition is Dijon vs Saint Etienne part of?
Dijon vs Saint Etienne is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Dijon vs Saint Etienne?
Our statistical model gives Dijon a 17% chance of winning, Saint Etienne a 54% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Saint Etienne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dijon vs Saint Etienne?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Dijon and Saint Etienne will score (BTTS).
Will Dijon vs Saint Etienne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dijon and Saint Etienne?
Record (2 meetings): Dijon 1W | Draws 0 | Saint Etienne 1W.
What form are Dijon and Saint Etienne in?
Dijon (all comps): 0W-2D-1L in 3 | 0.67 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-D. Saint Etienne (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Dijon's attack at 0.70x the league average against Saint Etienne's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 0.74 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Saint Etienne's attack (1.13x) against Dijon's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.49.
These ratings are built from 3/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (13.4%), 0-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Saint Etienne Win
17%
5.96
30%
3.37
54%
1.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.9%
Away win
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.74
Dijon xG
Total xG
2.23
1.49
Saint Etienne xG
5.96
17%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
1.87
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
22%
4.45
48%
2.10
Win to Nil
4%
26.51
26%
3.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 16.0 | 11.9 | 5.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.8 | 8.8 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 4.4 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dijon vs Saint Etienne?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Dijon and Saint Etienne expected to score?
The model projects 0.74 expected goals for Dijon and 1.49 for Saint Etienne, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Dijon vs Saint Etienne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Dijon come into this having played 3 games, going 0W 2D 1L for 0.67 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D. It's still early in the season for Dijon, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Saint Etienne sit at 3.00 PPG from 3 outings (3W 0D 0L), a run that reads W-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Saint Etienne, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Saint Etienne carry the stronger recent form of the two, 2.33 PPG clear of Dijon — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Attack vs Defence
Dijon are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Saint Etienne are on 3.33 scored and 0.33 conceded. Saint Etienne's attacking output running into Dijon's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Dijon have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Defensively: Saint Etienne in 67% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 3 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dijon
Early Season
Saint Etienne
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dijon and Saint Etienne in coming into this match?
Dijon have gone 0W 2D 1L in their last 3 games (0.67 PPG), while Saint Etienne have gone 3W 0D 0L in their last 3 (3.00 PPG).
Have Dijon or Saint Etienne been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dijon have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Saint Etienne in 67%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 3 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. The two were last together as recently as 31 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Saint Etienne go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dijon have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Saint Etienne — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Dijon
0
Draws
2
Saint Etienne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dijon and Saint Etienne?
From 3 meetings on record, Dijon have won 1, Saint Etienne have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Dijon and Saint Etienne last play each other?
They last met on 31 August 2026, when Dijon 2-3 Saint Etienne.
Who has won more matches between Dijon and Saint Etienne?
Saint Etienne have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Dijon tend to start slowly — only 0% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Saint Etienne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 100% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dijon 67%, Saint Etienne 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 0% (Dijon) and 100% (Saint Etienne).
On the defensive side: Saint Etienne in 67%; Dijon have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dijon home games / Saint Etienne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dijon play Saint Etienne?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Dijon's recent matches and 33% of Saint Etienne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dijon vs Saint Etienne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Dijon's recent games and 100% of Saint Etienne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dijon and Saint Etienne tend to score early?
Dijon have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Saint Etienne in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Saint Etienne edge out Dijon 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Saint Etienne beat Dijon 2-3 at Stade Gaston Gerard, Regular Season - 4, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dijon 0.74 xG and Saint Etienne 1.49 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Dijon beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Saint Etienne outscored their 1.49 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dijon attack 0.70 / defence 1.08 against Saint Etienne attack 1.13 / defence 0.89, drawn from 3/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dijon 17% | Draw 30% | Saint Etienne 54%, with Saint Etienne to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dijon 0%, Saint Etienne 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dijon's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Saint Etienne's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Saint Etienne arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.67. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Dijon scored 2 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Saint Etienne shipped 2 against a 0.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.