Dijon vs RED Star FC 93 – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates RED Star FC 93 at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dijon vs RED Star FC 93 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees RED Star FC 93 travel to to take on Dijon. The game is scheduled for Friday 6 November 2026, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dijon stand at 0W 2D 2L from 4 Ligue 2 matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Dijon have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, RED Star FC 93 have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W D D L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.80. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. RED Star FC 93 have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, RED Star FC 93 have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour RED Star FC 93 — 1.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Profile
Dijon in-play tendencies (4 games): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games.
RED Star FC 93 in-play tendencies (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Dijon 75% and RED Star FC 93 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Dijon 25% | RED Star FC 93 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dijon 0.91 xG and RED Star FC 93 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dijon attack 0.857 / defence 1.244 | RED Star FC 93 attack 0.928 / defence 0.879. League average goals — home 1.211 / away 1.253. Data: 4 Dijon games / 37 RED Star FC 93 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dijon 22% | Draw 30% | RED Star FC 93 48%. Fair-value odds: Dijon 4.55 | Draw 3.33 | RED Star FC 93 2.08. RED Star FC 93 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, RED Star FC 93 are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on RED Star FC 93 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.36 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. This conflicts with form data: Dijon 75% | RED Star FC 93 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dijon vs RED Star FC 93 | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: • Kick-off: Friday 6 Nov 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dijon 22% | Draw 30% | RED Star FC 93 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG Dijon 0.91 / RED Star FC 93 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Dijon attack 0.857 / def 1.244 | RED Star FC 93 attack 0.928 / def 0.879 | league avg home 1.211 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: RED Star FC 93 (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Dijon xG
Expected Goals
1.45
RED Star FC 93 xG
47%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dijon vs RED Star FC 93 kick off?
Dijon vs RED Star FC 93 is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 6 November 2026.
What competition is Dijon vs RED Star FC 93 part of?
Dijon vs RED Star FC 93 is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Dijon vs RED Star FC 93?
Our statistical model gives Dijon a 22% chance of winning, RED Star FC 93 a 48% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making RED Star FC 93 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dijon vs RED Star FC 93?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Dijon and RED Star FC 93 will score (BTTS).
Will Dijon vs RED Star FC 93 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dijon and RED Star FC 93?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Dijon and RED Star FC 93 in?
Dijon (all comps): 0W-2D-2L in 4 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-L. RED Star FC 93 (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Dijon's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against RED Star FC 93's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.91. The same calculation in reverse, RED Star FC 93's attack versus Dijon's defence, projects 1.45 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.1%), 0-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
RED Star FC 93 Win
22%
4.53
30%
3.33
48%
2.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Dijon xG
Total xG
2.36
1.45
RED Star FC 93 xG
4.53
22%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
2.09
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
24%
4.25
40%
2.49
Win to Nil
5%
19.23
19%
5.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 13.7 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.5 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 5.7 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dijon vs RED Star FC 93?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Dijon and RED Star FC 93 expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Dijon and 1.45 for RED Star FC 93, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Dijon vs RED Star FC 93?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 4 outings, Dijon have picked up 0.50 PPG on a 0W 2D 2L record — D-L-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Dijon, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
RED Star FC 93's form line: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games, 1.25 PPG, last five W-D-D-L. It's still early in the season for RED Star FC 93, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, RED Star FC 93 are the form team by 0.75 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Dijon.
Goals in Recent Form
Dijon are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; RED Star FC 93 are on 0.75 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dijon have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games.
Defensively: RED Star FC 93 in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dijon
Early Season
RED Star FC 93
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dijon and RED Star FC 93 in coming into this match?
Dijon have gone 0W 2D 2L in their last 4 games (0.50 PPG), while RED Star FC 93 have gone 1W 2D 1L in their last 4 (1.25 PPG).
Have Dijon or RED Star FC 93 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dijon have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, RED Star FC 93 in 50%.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Dijon tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time.
RED Star FC 93 see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dijon 75%, RED Star FC 93 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Dijon and 25% for RED Star FC 93.
On the defensive side: RED Star FC 93 in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dijon home games / RED Star FC 93 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dijon play RED Star FC 93?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Dijon's games and 50% of RED Star FC 93's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dijon vs RED Star FC 93 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Dijon's recent games and 25% of RED Star FC 93's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dijon and RED Star FC 93 tend to score early?
Dijon have had a goal before half-time in 25% of their recent matches, RED Star FC 93 in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.