Dijon vs RED Star FC 93 – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates RED Star FC 93 at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dijon vs RED Star FC 93 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees RED Star FC 93 travel to to take on Dijon. The game is scheduled for Friday 6 November 2026, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dijon stand at 3W 3D 3L from 9 Ligue 2 matches — 1.33 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.78 goals per game, with 1.78 conceded. Both teams have scored in 89% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Dijon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dijon at this season: 2W 0D 2L from 4 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.25 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, RED Star FC 93 have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for RED Star FC 93, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, RED Star FC 93 have posted 6W 1D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Dijon at 1.33 PPG versus RED Star FC 93's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Profile
Dijon in-play tendencies (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
RED Star FC 93 in-play tendencies (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Dijon 89% and RED Star FC 93 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dijon 56% | RED Star FC 93 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dijon 1.60 xG and RED Star FC 93 2.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dijon attack 1.229 / defence 1.360 | RED Star FC 93 attack 1.251 / defence 0.954. League average goals — home 1.365 / away 1.317. RED Star FC 93 have an above-average attack strength of 1.251 — the away xG of 2.24 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 9 Dijon games / 42 RED Star FC 93 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dijon 27% | Draw 21% | RED Star FC 93 52%. Fair-value odds: Dijon 3.70 | Draw 4.76 | RED Star FC 93 1.92. RED Star FC 93 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 3.84. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.84 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (1.60 / 2.24) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, RED Star FC 93 are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean.
The Poisson model projects 3.84 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 74% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 72% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Dijon 75% | RED Star FC 93 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dijon vs RED Star FC 93 | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: • Kick-off: Friday 6 Nov 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dijon 27% | Draw 21% | RED Star FC 93 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% | BTTS 72% | xG Dijon 1.60 / RED Star FC 93 2.24 • Poisson strength factors: Dijon attack 1.229 / def 1.360 | RED Star FC 93 attack 1.251 / def 0.954 | league avg home 1.365 / away 1.317 • Poisson stance: RED Star FC 93 (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Dijon xG
Expected Goals
2.24
RED Star FC 93 xG
72%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dijon vs RED Star FC 93 kick off?
Dijon vs RED Star FC 93 is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 6 November 2026.
What competition is Dijon vs RED Star FC 93 part of?
Dijon vs RED Star FC 93 is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Dijon vs RED Star FC 93?
Our statistical model gives Dijon a 27% chance of winning, RED Star FC 93 a 52% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making RED Star FC 93 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dijon vs RED Star FC 93?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both Dijon and RED Star FC 93 will score (BTTS).
Will Dijon vs RED Star FC 93 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dijon and RED Star FC 93?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Dijon and RED Star FC 93 in?
Dijon (all comps): 3W-3D-3L in 9 | 1.33 PPG | GF 1.78 / GA 1.78 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. RED Star FC 93 (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Dijon's attacking strength (1.23x league average) is weighed against RED Star FC 93's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.60. The same calculation in reverse, RED Star FC 93's attack versus Dijon's defence, projects 2.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 8.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
RED Star FC 93 Win
27%
3.68
21%
4.78
52%
1.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.7%
Draw
2 – 2
6.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Dijon xG
Total xG
3.84
2.24
RED Star FC 93 xG
3.68
27%
Home win
4.78
21%
Draw
1.93
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
53%
Over 3.5
1.89
47%
Under 3.5
2.13
34%
Over 4.5
2.94
66%
Under 4.5
1.52
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.40
28%
BTTS No
3.53
Clean Sheet
11%
9.38
20%
4.96
Win to Nil
3%
34.54
10%
9.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.1 | 4.8 | 5.4 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 3.4 | 7.7 | 8.6 | 6.4 | 3.6 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 6.2 | 6.9 | 5.2 | 2.9 | 1.3 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dijon vs RED Star FC 93?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.7%.
How many goals are Dijon and RED Star FC 93 expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Dijon and 2.24 for RED Star FC 93, a combined total of 3.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Dijon vs RED Star FC 93?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 9 outings, Dijon have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 3W 3D 3L record — D-W-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Dijon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
RED Star FC 93's form line: 5W 2D 2L from 9 games, 1.89 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-L. The sample for RED Star FC 93 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, RED Star FC 93 are the form team by 0.56 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Dijon.
Venue Form
On home soil, Dijon have posted 1.50 PPG from 4 outings (2W 0D 2L).
On the road, RED Star FC 93 have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 away games — 2.50 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 1.89 PPG overall record — RED Star FC 93 travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, RED Star FC 93 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Dijon are averaging 1.78 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; RED Star FC 93 are on 1.33 scored and 1.11 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dijon have seen both teams score in 89% of their recent games.
Last 9 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dijon
Blended
RED Star FC 93
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dijon and RED Star FC 93 in coming into this match?
Dijon have gone 3W 3D 3L in their last 9 games (1.33 PPG), while RED Star FC 93 have gone 5W 2D 2L in their last 9 (1.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dijon at home or RED Star FC 93 away?
RED Star FC 93's away record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dijon at home: 1.50 PPG; RED Star FC 93 away: 2.50 PPG.
Have Dijon or RED Star FC 93 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dijon have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, RED Star FC 93 in 33%.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Dijon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
RED Star FC 93 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Dijon at 75%, RED Star FC 93 at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Dijon and 75% for RED Star FC 93. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 75% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dijon home games / RED Star FC 93 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dijon play RED Star FC 93?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Dijon's games and 100% of RED Star FC 93's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dijon vs RED Star FC 93 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Dijon's matches and 75% of RED Star FC 93's.
Do Dijon and RED Star FC 93 tend to score early?
Dijon have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, RED Star FC 93 in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.