Dijon 2-2 Niort – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dijon at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dijon vs Niort fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Niort make the trip to Stade Gaston-Gérard to face Dijon in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Saturday 11 December 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Dijon have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 5W 0D 5L. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Dijon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dijon at Stade Gaston-Gérard this season: 4W 1D 4L from 9 home games — 1.44 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Niort's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Niort, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Niort's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 4L across 9 road games this term (1.22 PPG). Away from home they average 0.89 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Dijon, 1.60 for Niort — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading & In-Play
Dijon — key trading statistics (17 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Niort — key trading statistics (17 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dijon 53% versus Niort 35%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dijon 47% | Niort 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dijon 1.30 xG and Niort 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dijon attack 1.066 / defence 1.233 | Niort attack 0.868 / defence 1.283. League average goals — home 0.949 / away 0.974. Niort bring a strong defensive rating of 1.283 — this is suppressing Dijon's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 17 Dijon games / 17 Niort games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dijon 42% | Draw 28% | Niort 30%. Fair-value odds: Dijon 2.38 | Draw 3.57 | Niort 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dijon are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dijon if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.34 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates corroborate: Dijon 56% | Niort 33% BTTS from recent games.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dijon vs Niort | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stade Gaston-Gérard • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Dec 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dijon 42% | Draw 28% | Niort 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Dijon 1.30 / Niort 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Dijon attack 1.066 / def 1.233 | Niort attack 0.868 / def 1.283 | league avg home 0.949 / away 0.974 • Poisson stance: Dijon (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Dijon xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Niort xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dijon vs Niort kick off?
Dijon vs Niort kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 11 December 2021 at Stade Gaston-Gérard.
What was the final score in Dijon vs Niort?
Dijon 2 - 2 Niort.
Where is Dijon vs Niort being played?
The match is being played at Stade Gaston-Gérard.
What competition is Dijon vs Niort part of?
Dijon vs Niort is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Dijon vs Niort?
Our statistical model gives Dijon a 42% chance of winning, Niort a 30% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Dijon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dijon vs Niort?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Dijon and Niort will score (BTTS).
Will Dijon vs Niort have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dijon and Niort?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Dijon and Niort in?
Dijon (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Niort (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Dijon's attack rating (1.07) and Niort's defence rating (1.28), the model arrives at 1.30 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Niort's attack (0.87x) against Dijon's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.3%), 1-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dijon Win
42%
2.36
28%
3.60
30%
3.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Dijon xG
Total xG
2.34
1.04
Niort xG
2.36
42%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
3.35
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
27%
3.66
Win to Nil
15%
6.69
8%
12.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 10.0 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.0 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 8.5 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dijon vs Niort?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Dijon and Niort expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Dijon and 1.04 for Niort, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Dijon vs Niort?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 17 outings, Dijon have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 6W 1D 10L record — W-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Dijon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Niort's form line: 7W 3D 7L from 17 games, 1.41 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-W. The sample for Niort is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.12 PPG for Dijon against 1.41 for Niort. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Dijon have posted 1.44 PPG from 9 outings (4W 1D 4L).
On the road, Niort have gone 3W 2D 4L from 9 away games — 1.22 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Dijon are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Niort are on 1.06 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Defensively: Niort in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dijon
Blended
Niort
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dijon and Niort in coming into this match?
Dijon have gone 6W 1D 10L in their last 17 games (1.12 PPG), while Niort have gone 7W 3D 7L in their last 17 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dijon at home or Niort away?
Dijon's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dijon at home: 1.44 PPG; Niort away: 1.22 PPG.
Have Dijon or Niort been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dijon have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Niort in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Niort have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dijon have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Niort — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Dijon
1
Draws
2
Niort
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dijon and Niort?
From 4 meetings on record, Dijon have won 1, Niort have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Dijon and Niort last play each other?
They last met on 3 February 2023, when Dijon 0-1 Niort.
Who has won more matches between Dijon and Niort?
Niort have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Dijon see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches.
Niort are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dijon 56%, Niort 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Dijon) and 56% (Niort).
On the defensive side: Niort in 33%; Niort in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dijon home games / Niort away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dijon play Niort?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Dijon's recent matches and 33% of Niort's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dijon vs Niort usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Dijon's recent games and 56% of Niort's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dijon and Niort tend to score early?
Dijon have had a goal before half-time in 44% of their recent matches, Niort in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dijon and Niort share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Gaston-Gérard, Regular Season - 18, as Dijon and Niort drew 2-2 in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dijon 1.30 xG and Niort 1.04 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Niort outscored their 1.04 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dijon attack 1.07 / defence 1.23 against Niort attack 0.87 / defence 1.28, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dijon 42% | Draw 28% | Niort 30%, with Dijon to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dijon 47%, Niort 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dijon's trading profile (17 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Niort's trading profile (17 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dijon 1.12 PPG, Niort 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Niort (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.89 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.