Dijon 2-3 Nancy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dijon at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dijon vs Nancy encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 37 as Dijon welcome Nancy to Stade Gaston-Gérard. Kick-off is set for Saturday 7 May 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dijon stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D L L D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, Dijon have posted 5W 2D 3L at Stade Gaston-Gérard — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Nancy — All Games: 1W 1D 8L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Nancy away from home this season: 0W 2D 8L from 10 away games — 0.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Dijon carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.20 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.60 vs 0.40. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Dijon have won 1, Nancy 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 21 Dec 2021, ended 3–0 with Dijon winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Dijon in-play tendencies (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Nancy in-play tendencies (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dijon 50% versus Nancy 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dijon 50% | Nancy 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dijon 1.59 xG and Nancy 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dijon attack 1.062 / defence 1.303 | Nancy attack 0.667 / defence 1.585. League average goals — home 0.944 / away 1.062. Nancy bring a strong defensive rating of 1.585 — this is suppressing Dijon's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 36 Dijon games / 36 Nancy games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dijon 52% | Draw 27% | Nancy 21%. Fair-value odds: Dijon 1.92 | Draw 3.70 | Nancy 4.76. Dijon hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Dijon as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dijon offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.51 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: Dijon 40% | Nancy 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dijon vs Nancy | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Stade Gaston-Gérard • Kick-off: Saturday 7 May 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dijon 52% | Draw 27% | Nancy 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 49% | xG Dijon 1.59 / Nancy 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Dijon attack 1.062 / def 1.303 | Nancy attack 0.667 / def 1.585 | league avg home 0.944 / away 1.062 • Poisson stance: Dijon (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Dijon xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Nancy xG
49%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dijon vs Nancy kick off?
Dijon vs Nancy kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 7 May 2022 at Stade Gaston-Gérard.
What was the final score in Dijon vs Nancy?
Dijon 2 - 3 Nancy.
Where is Dijon vs Nancy being played?
The match is being played at Stade Gaston-Gérard.
What competition is Dijon vs Nancy part of?
Dijon vs Nancy is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Dijon vs Nancy?
Our statistical model gives Dijon a 52% chance of winning, Nancy a 21% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Dijon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dijon vs Nancy?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Dijon and Nancy will score (BTTS).
Will Dijon vs Nancy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dijon and Nancy?
Record (1 meetings): Dijon 1W | Draws 0 | Nancy 0W.
What form are Dijon and Nancy in?
Dijon (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-L-D-W. Nancy (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Dijon's attack rating (1.06) and Nancy's defence rating (1.58), the model arrives at 1.59 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Nancy's attack versus Dijon's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.3%), 2-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dijon Win
52%
1.92
27%
3.71
21%
4.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Dijon xG
Total xG
2.51
0.92
Nancy xG
1.92
52%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
4.76
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
20%
4.90
Win to Nil
21%
4.83
4%
23.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 7.5 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.9 | 11.9 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.5 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dijon vs Nancy?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Dijon and Nancy expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Dijon and 0.92 for Nancy, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Dijon vs Nancy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 36 outings, Dijon have picked up 1.28 PPG on a 13W 7D 16L record — D-L-L-D-W across the most recent five.
Nancy's form line: 5W 9D 22L from 36 games, 0.67 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-L.
Put side by side, Dijon are the form team by 0.61 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Nancy.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Dijon have posted 1.50 PPG from 18 outings (8W 3D 7L).
On the road, Nancy have gone 1W 5D 12L from 18 away games — 0.44 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dijon come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Dijon are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Nancy are on 0.75 scored and 1.78 conceded.
Last 36 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dijon
Current Season
Nancy
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dijon and Nancy in coming into this match?
Dijon have gone 13W 7D 16L in their last 36 games (1.28 PPG), while Nancy have gone 5W 9D 22L in their last 36 (0.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dijon at home or Nancy away?
Dijon's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dijon at home: 1.50 PPG; Nancy away: 0.44 PPG.
Have Dijon or Nancy been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dijon have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Nancy in 11%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Dijon and Nancy runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 May 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Dijon
0
Draws
1
Nancy
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dijon and Nancy?
From 2 meetings on record, Dijon have won 1, Nancy have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Dijon and Nancy last play each other?
They last met on 7 May 2022, when Dijon 2-3 Nancy.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Dijon see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Nancy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dijon 44%, Nancy 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Dijon) and 44% (Nancy).
On the defensive side: Dijon keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Nancy in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dijon home games / Nancy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dijon play Nancy?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Dijon's recent matches and 61% of Nancy's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dijon vs Nancy usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Dijon's recent games and 44% of Nancy's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dijon and Nancy tend to score early?
Dijon have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Nancy in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Nancy defy the odds to beat Dijon 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nancy beat Dijon 2-3 at Stade Gaston-Gérard, Regular Season - 37, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dijon 1.59 xG and Nancy 0.92 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Nancy outscored their 0.92 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dijon attack 1.06 / defence 1.30 against Nancy attack 0.67 / defence 1.58, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dijon 52% | Draw 27% | Nancy 21%, with Dijon to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Nancy win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dijon 50%, Nancy 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dijon's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Nancy's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Dijon arrived the stronger side — 1.28 PPG against 0.67. Form was overturned, with Nancy winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Dijon (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.28 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Nancy (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.72 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.