Dijon vs Guingamp – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dijon at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dijon vs Guingamp fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 29 sees Guingamp travel to to take on Dijon. The game is scheduled for Friday 16 April 2027, 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Dijon have gone 3W 3D 3L from 9 outings — a 1.33 PPG return. Last five: D W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.78 goals per game, with 1.78 conceded. Both teams have scored in 89% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Dijon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dijon's form when playing at home: 2W 0D 2L across 4 games at this term (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.25 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Guingamp stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Guingamp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Guingamp have posted 0W 3D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.30 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Dijon are in the better shape of the two on current Ligue 2 data — 0.53 PPG ahead (1.33 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Dijon register both teams scoring in 75% of relevant matches, Guingamp in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Dijon, 2 for Guingamp and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 11 Mar 2023, ended 0–2 with Guingamp winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Dijon trading profile (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Guingamp trading profile (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Dijon 89% and Guingamp 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dijon 56% | Guingamp 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dijon 1.70 xG and Guingamp 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dijon attack 1.229 / defence 1.360 | Guingamp attack 0.794 / defence 1.014. League average goals — home 1.365 / away 1.317. Data: 9 Dijon games / 43 Guingamp games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dijon 44% | Draw 24% | Guingamp 32%. Fair-value odds: Dijon 2.27 | Draw 4.17 | Guingamp 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.70 / 1.42) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Guingamp lead the H2H ledger, but Dijon carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Dijon as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dijon offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.12 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Dijon 75% | Guingamp 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dijon vs Guingamp | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: • Kick-off: Friday 16 Apr 2027, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dijon 44% | Draw 24% | Guingamp 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 63% | xG Dijon 1.70 / Guingamp 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Dijon attack 1.229 / def 1.360 | Guingamp attack 0.794 / def 1.014 | league avg home 1.365 / away 1.317 • Poisson stance: Dijon (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Dijon xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Guingamp xG
63%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dijon vs Guingamp kick off?
Dijon vs Guingamp is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Friday 16 April 2027.
What competition is Dijon vs Guingamp part of?
Dijon vs Guingamp is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Dijon vs Guingamp?
Our statistical model gives Dijon a 44% chance of winning, Guingamp a 32% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Dijon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dijon vs Guingamp?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Dijon and Guingamp will score (BTTS).
Will Dijon vs Guingamp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dijon and Guingamp?
Record (4 meetings): Dijon 0W | Draws 2 | Guingamp 2W.
What form are Dijon and Guingamp in?
Dijon (all comps): 3W-3D-3L in 9 | 1.33 PPG | GF 1.78 / GA 1.78 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. Guingamp (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Dijon's attack rating (1.23) and Guingamp's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.70 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Guingamp's attack versus Dijon's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Dijon Win
44%
2.28
24%
4.09
32%
3.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 2
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Dijon xG
Total xG
3.12
1.42
Guingamp xG
2.28
44%
Home win
4.09
24%
Draw
3.15
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.67
Clean Sheet
24%
4.15
18%
5.48
Win to Nil
11%
9.47
6%
17.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 6.3 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 10.6 | 7.6 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 9.1 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 5.1 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dijon vs Guingamp?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Dijon and Guingamp expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Dijon and 1.42 for Guingamp, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Dijon vs Guingamp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 9 outings, Dijon have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 3W 3D 3L record — D-W-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Dijon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Guingamp's form line: 2W 2D 5L from 9 games, 0.89 PPG, last five D-W-L-L-L. The sample for Guingamp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Dijon are the form team by 0.44 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Guingamp.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Dijon have posted 1.50 PPG from 4 outings (2W 0D 2L).
On the road, Guingamp have gone 0W 1D 3L from 4 away games — 0.25 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.89 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Guingamp's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dijon come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Dijon are averaging 1.78 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Guingamp are on 1.22 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dijon have seen both teams score in 89% of their recent games; Guingamp in 67%.
Last 9 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dijon
Blended
Guingamp
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dijon and Guingamp in coming into this match?
Dijon have gone 3W 3D 3L in their last 9 games (1.33 PPG), while Guingamp have gone 2W 2D 5L in their last 9 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dijon at home or Guingamp away?
Dijon's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dijon at home: 1.50 PPG; Guingamp away: 0.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Dijon and Guingamp runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Dijon's record when hosting Guingamp specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Dijon
2
Draws
2
Guingamp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dijon and Guingamp?
From 4 meetings on record, Dijon have won 0, Guingamp have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Dijon and Guingamp last play each other?
They last met on 11 March 2023, when Guingamp 2-0 Dijon.
Who has won more matches between Dijon and Guingamp?
Guingamp have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Dijon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Guingamp see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dijon 75%, Guingamp 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Dijon and 50% for Guingamp. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 75% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Guingamp in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dijon home games / Guingamp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dijon play Guingamp?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Dijon's games and 50% of Guingamp's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dijon vs Guingamp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Dijon's matches and 50% of Guingamp's.
Do Dijon and Guingamp tend to score early?
Dijon have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Guingamp in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.